Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Don't laugh at the title. Someone's got to do it.
Recently, I've been giving some thought to the process by which Mitt Romney should make his vice presidential pick. And one thought keeps coming to mind: George W. Bush got it right.
Now, even if you weren't keen on Dick Cheney individually (I myself am an unabashed fan), I think you have to acknowledge that he possessed an ideal set of traits for a running mate: seasoned, discreet, ready to step into the job on day one, not self-promoting and -- most importantly in my judgment -- beyond the point in his career where he entertained presidential ambitions.
We often think about the choice of a running mate in narrowly political terms: what electoral real estate they can put on the table (I'm not convinced there's ever a lot to be gained); how their profile enhances, or contrasts with, the candidate's; or how they'll do in a vice presidential debate where it's virtually impossible to influence public opinion unless you have a grade-A meltdown that ends with you killing a protected species onstage.
What we don't focus on enough is this: among the powers of the presidency, few are more momentous than serving as an Electoral College of one when it comes to choosing a potential successor. Given that incredible responsibility, my own instinct would be to choose someone who borders on emeritus status -- someone whose service to their country could already be judged a worthwhile life's work, who would have made a worthy president had he ever thrown his hat into the ring, and who, if not chosen, would take his leave of Washington or whatever state capital he inhabits and pursue a relatively quiet life.
This militates against those (and I myself have entertained these thoughts before) who are touting the likes of Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, or Bobby Jindal for the number two spot. These are all formidable figures in the Republican Party -- and all people whose substantive contributions might be cut short if they, like most recent vice presidents, take the number two slot only to never hold another office again. It just doesn't make sense to bench your stars when they're hot.
So who do I propose as alternatives? Two names come immediately to mind. The first is Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, but he says (with a conviction unusual from those making such a claim) that he's not interested. The second is retiring Arizona Senator Jon Kyl.
Kyl may not be at the front of your mental rolodex, but that's because of one of the traits that make him fit my schema: despite being the number two Republican in the U.S. Senate, he's not a publicity hound. What he is, however, is hard working, whip-smart, conservative (his lifetime rating from the American Conservative Union puts him in Jim DeMint-Tom Coburn territory) but in a style that won't scare the horses, and deeply experienced (four terms in the House, three terms in the Senate).
Kyl's background also allows him to add some value to a potential Romney Administration. In recent years, he's been one of the leading Republicans in the Senate on foreign policy issues (an area where Romney is notably short on credentials -- and where he seems to be flailing at times). And a D.C. outsider like Romney might do well to choose the man who's currently in charge of counting heads in the upper chamber if he wants to establish a decent working relationship with Congress. Finally, Kyl's age (at 70 perhaps his biggest hurdle) and lack of further political ambitions would leave the race to become Romney's successor wide open, allowing a free-for-all amongst the many talented members of the GOP farm team instead of giving one candidate the institutional advantage of the vice presidency.
Jon Kyl for Vice President. I've just about convinced myself. How about you?
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Comments:
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
CandE: A
Not 100% sure on the choice (I favor Coburn more), but I like the decision process. Leave our outstanding governors where they are; we need them in their states.
-E · 12 hours ago
CandE ~
I like Coburn very much, but, unlike Kyl, he doesn't pass the "won't scare the horses" test (we'd have to spend days upon days of media time on this and this). Also, Coburn (like Jim DeMint and Rand Paul, in their own ways) is a bit of a one-man band. Having those kind of independent-minded gadflys in the Senate is a good thing, but they would probably not fit well into a subordinate role in the Executive Branch.
Edited on June 7, 2012 at 9:10amRe: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
I have to ever-so-gently disagree with you here, Robert. I'm hard pressed to see how having a different vice president would have changed the trajectory of President Bush's second term. If anything it was a gift to the GOP in 2008 not to be saddled with a candidate weighed down by association with the unpopularity of the Bush Administration.
John McCain -- who squandered the opportunity -- was actually ideally situated to redefine the party (imagine if he had come out against the bailouts while both Bush and Obama were supporting them). It was always going to be uphill against Obama -- but it would have been worse if the GOP had a candidate inextricably tied to a White House in such bad odor.
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Frozen Chosen: While Romney could certainly do worse than Kyl as his VP choice I still think Paul Ryan would be a better choice for the following reasons;
FC,
It has long been my suspicion that this is one of the primary reasons Romney will not choose Paul Ryan. The Romney people seem very hesitant to commit to policy goals in any but the most general terms (not that they're the first campaign ever to do this -- not by a long shot). But the reason that most of us respect Paul Ryan is because he has been so relentlessly detailed and specific in his proposals.
My gut feeling is that the Romney campaign doesn't want to spend the fall defending every last word of the Roadmap for America's Future and, as a result, the Gentleman from Wisconsin will remain on the same end of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
That's probably the biggest knock on him from the right, but I don't think it's anywhere close to terminal.
For one thing, immigration seems to have dropped in the hierarchy of salient national issues over the past few years (Arizona excluded). Two, Kyl has the virtue of being able to speak the language of the conservatives that opposed immigration reform. One of the things that really did in both Bush and (as Josh Trevino noted on the main podcast last week) Rick Perry on this issue was when they questioned the motives of those who disagreed with them -- and did so in particularly condescending fashion.
I doubt that (most) conservatives, if presented with a relatively reassuring number two pick from Romney, would be so adversarial as to send Kyl to the gallows over this one issue.
Oct '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Casey Taylor: I lean Petraeus.
As for debates... I'm pretty sure he can just stand there and let his multilingual military manliness batter Biden to bits.
The best way to batter Biden is to sit back and let him talk. Romney won’t pick a guy who has never run for (let alone held) a Federal or State-wide office. Most senior military leaders would make horrible politicians and I suspect Petraeus is one of them. For one thing they are too accustomed to others actually doing what they tell them to do. Petraeus already had a chance to “fix” Afghanistan and not even a man with his prodigious abilities could do so. It’s hubris to think it can be fixed and the game is not worth the candle in any case. The greatest bipartisan foreign policy failure since Vietnam was not getting out of Afghanistan when we should have. Petraeus doesn’t own that failure, but it would be interesting to know what advice he gave the President about it along the way. Americans are needlessly being maimed and dying there week in and week out, but not ones with stars on their collars.
Oct '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Troy Senik, Ed.
I doubt that (most) conservatives, if presented with a relatively reassuring number two pick from Romney, would be so adversarial as to send Kyl to the gallows over this one issue.
True enough, Troy. But conservatives have nowhere else to go regardless of who Romney picks as VP. The salient question is what Kyl does for the ticket in terms of attracting uncommitted voters in key states, no? It's here that Kyl seems a truly poor choice, wouldn't you agree?
Oct '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Troy Senik, Ed.
FC,
It has long been my suspicion that this is one of the primary reasons Romney willnotchoose Paul Ryan. The Romney people seem very hesitant to commit to policy goals in any but the most general terms (not that they're the first campaign ever to do this -- not by a long shot). But the reason that most of us respect Paul Ryan is because he has been so relentlessly detailed and specific in his proposals.
My gut feeling is that the Romney campaign doesn't want to spend the fall defending every last word of the Roadmap for America's Future and, as a result, the Gentleman from Wisconsin will remain on the same end of Pennsylvania Avenue. · 4 hours ago
Too late. Romney already called the Ryan Plan "marvelous".
After Scott Walker's win, it's time for Mitt Romney to double down on republican reforms and select paul ryan for VP.
Oct '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
if the individual mandate is struck down, this will help obama since the SC decision will be lessen the urgency to defeat the president. if the mandate is struck down, romney will need to explain to conservatives why they still need to elect him. best way to do that is to nominate paul ryan for VP...especially after scott walker's win.
May '11
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
This points out that whoever he picks should be someone who compares favorably to Ryan, Rubio, Jindal, Portman, etc.
They are all important campaign surrogates. Romney would not want someone who is overshadowed by any of them.
Aug '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Casey Taylor: I lean Petraeus...
As for debates... I'm pretty sure he can just stand there and let his multilingual military manliness batter Biden to bits. · 10 hours ago
Edited 9 hours ago
Hilarious image. Petraeus never speaks in the debate and reduces Biden to a blubbering fool.
Wait a minute... Isn't Biden pretty much already that?
Dec '11
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Frozen Chosen
ConservativeWanderer
I'm not sure I agree with this assessment. VP has only been a dead end very recently. Gore came within a few hundred votes of making the transition, Quayle was kind of an outlier and then you have Bush 41 who made the leap. Nixon, Johnson, Truman, Coolidge all did it.
I don't think you can count Quayle because HW didn't serve a second term, sort of a precondition for the incumbancy bump to a VP. So two term VP's who seeking PotUS status are 1 for 2 in the last 20 years, with a long proud history behind.
That said, I like idea of a Kyl/Coburn/Rumsfeld type for 2012 and then open the field to the young guns in 2016: Jindal, Christie, Rubio, Ryan, Walker, Paul, (Rand)
Jun '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
That's exactly the point. GEN P. is a rather soft-spoken man who's build belies his stature, and he may be a senior officer, but he's a truly amazing individual. You can't deny his service ethic, given his history, and we desperately need more military blood in politics. While I would love to see Sergeant Major Dan Daly or Master Sergeant Roy Benavidez take the reins, I'll settle for the lesser cowboy. Who's still pretty great.
Petraeus couldn't "fix" Afghanistan because our leadership is committed to losing. We have no mission other than managing our withdrawal, and I think Petraeus left because he saw he saw that there was nothing he could do. Obama offered him terms he couldn't refuse in order to keep the General out of politics, terms I think Romney can turn to his advantage. Petraeus is retired, probably encountering the same problems at CIA as he faced at CENTCOM, so he might be amenable to the next promotion. I can easily see him filling the shoes of Ike, who's worst failure was Suez. He was pretty great otherwise.
Oct '10
Re: Thinking About the Vice Presidency
Casey – About Afghanistan: (1) You seem to think we could win there if only our leadership were committed to doing so. It once was; we still couldn’t—even with Petraeus at the helm. The mission now is “managing our withdrawal” because that’s the only thing left to do. (2) The problem is (and always has been) the definition of “winning” in Afghanistan. Nation building (in itself very slippery to define) is not achievable except maybe on some multi-decade timescale that we’ve neither the resources nor the patience nor the cold-hearted self-interest in. If what we really need is a convenient platform from which to launch drones, we don’t need to nation-build to achieve it. The only question is whether that nation building mumbo-jumbo is an honest self-delusion or a calculated sideshow to appease the faint hearted. The reality is both answers are correct; just depends on who is talking.