The outcome of the Turkish elections
Let's put everything in perspective:
2011 Voter turnout: 87%
2007 Voter turnout: 85.1%
2011 - Total number of votes: 42,906,852
2007 - Total number of votes: 35,017,315
AKP - 49.91% (16.3 Million votes) ..... 326 MP's (59% of the parliament)
2007 election: 46.6% (21.4 Million votes)...... 341 MP's (62% of the parliament)
Up 3.31% tallying 5.1 Million more votes......... 15 fewer MP's
CHP - 25.91% (11.1 Million votes)..... 135 MP's (24.5% of the parliament)
2007 election: 20.84% (7.3 Million votes)...... 112 MP's (20.4% of the parliament)
Up 5.07% tallying 3.8 Million more votes....... 23 more MP's
MHP - 13% (5.6 Million votes)..... 53 MP's (9.6% of the parliament)
2007 election: 14.26% (5 Million votes)...... 71 MP's (12.9% of the parliament)
Down 1.26% despite tallying 600 thousand more votes...... 18 MP's fewer
BDP-backed Independents - 6.6% (2.6 Million votes)..... 36 MP's (6.5% of the parliament)
2007 election: 4.4% (1.5 Million votes)...... 22 MP's (4% of the parliament)
Up 2.2% tallying 1.1 Million more votes.......... 14 more MP's
2011: About 2 Million votes (4.5%) under the 10% threshold to enter the parliament
2007: About 4.6 Million votes (12.9%) under the 10% threshold to enter the parliment
The increase of 7.9 million voters (from 2007 to 2011) and the 2.6 million votes which went to parties under the 10% threshold in 2007 approximately correspond to the increase of 10.6 million votes that the parties that got into the parliament in 2011 tallied, with the AKP obviously receiving 5.1 million of these 10.5-10.6 million additional votes.
However, the increase in the number of voters between 2007 and 2011 is rather strange because for it to be possible, there would have had to be such a jump in the birth rate between the years of 1989 and 1993. When we check the population of Turkey in those years, we notice an increase of 8.3 million from 56.5 million in 1990 to 62.9 million in 1997, i.e. less than 1 million per year. Nor can we find a jump in the Turkish population at a later point in time, a fact which would make an increase of 7.9 million voters in four years impossible unless a good number of voters did not get a chance to vote in 2007 when the AKP had its first huge break-through, jumping from 34% to nearly 47% in five years.
On the more positive side, the first-ever Syrian Orthodox ("Süryani" in Turkish) MP (an independent) was elected.
The number of female MP's has gone up from 50 to 78 (an increase of 56%). Ironically, 45 are from AKP, 19 from CHP, 3 from MHP and 11 from the BDP-backed independents. This is a historical peak for the Turkish parliament.
In summary, the AKP stayed in power, but lost a little (yet crucial) ground as did the MHP by a much larger margin, by 25%. On the other hand, the CHP increased its number of MP's by 20.5% and the BDP-backed independents by 63.6%. Hence, while the AKP has much to cheer about for staying in power and the CHP for improving its lot, albeit to a much lesser degree, the BDP-backed independents and women are the real winners of these elections.
Moreover, there is a chance, however little, that the Turkish people may also win if the opposition parties and the independents behave responsibly and force the AKP into governing the nation democratically. But don't count on it on either end. It is more likely that trouble looms ahead with the AKP continuing its authoritarian ways and the opposition failing to bond together. Nor can we, based on the last nine years, expect the USA and Europe to pressure the AKP into responsible governance.
The AKP has been the baby the Western publications and think-tanks (those leaning left in particular) love to spoil and is likely to stay that way until Erdogan and the AKP self-destruct or the West totally loses Turkey as an ally.
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Jun '10
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
Thank you for posting this! This and your prior posts have broadened my horizons. Keep up the good work!
A question, if I may: Are Turks living abroad able to vote in Turkish elections? If so, have those results come in? I'd be interested to see the breakdown of votes from those living abroad, particularly in Germany.
Edited on Jun 12, 2011 at 9:36pmAug '10
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
My thanks, too, Okan.
Jul '10
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
Casey Taylor: Thank you for posting this! This and your prior posts have broadened my horizons. Keep up the good work!
A question, if I may: Are Turks living abroad able to vote in Turkish elections? If so, have those results come in? I'd be interested to see the breakdown of votes from Turks living abroad, particularly in Germany. · Jun 12 at 8:37pm
They will be able to, at least in Germany, when they can set up a sufficient number of ballot boxes to accommodate the numbers. For now, they can only vote if they can come all the way to the Turkish border. 150,000-250,000 (per election) have been able to vote in the last three elections, i.e. about ten percent of all those who can be eligible to vote.
May '10
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
You people are breeding like rabbits over there. Keep breeding on this massive scale, and the AKP will be down to 56% next time.
Any thoughts on whether the AKP will introduce a constitutional referendum, and how it will succeed?
Jun '10
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
Okan Altiparmak
They will be able to, at least in Germany, when they can set up a sufficient number of ballot boxes to accommodate the numbers. For now, they can only vote if they can come all the way to the Turkish border. 150,000-250,000 (per election) have been able to vote in the last three elections, i.e. about ten percent of all those who can be eligible to vote. · Jun 12 at 9:23pm
With 1.6 to 2 million Turkish nationals in Germany, that would be a significant factor in the elections. Have you seen any indication of how Turks living abroad would vote?
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
Okan, many thanks for this. It is quite instructive. I, too, doubt that the opposition parties and the independents will band together to defend democratic norms. Too few of them understand what those are. There is a streak of authoritarianism in the culture of the Turkish republic that Erdogan knows how to exploit. The real crunch will come if the AKP succeeds in turning Turkey into a presidential republic on the French model. Then, I suspect, it will come to look more and more like its neighbors (especially, Syria).
Feb '11
Re: The outcome of the Turkish elections
The demographic profile of Turkey's complex. Some trends are clear, though.
Overall, TFR is declining at historically unprecedented rates, and is beginning to stabilize at European levels (i.e., below replacement). The main question now is: Will they be like Spain or like France.
Kurds continue to have more babies than do ethnic Turks. Long term, Kurds will be a majority. 2050? 2075? Ethnic Turks are spooked. Erdogan has recently been groveling again before the lovely Turkish ladies, begging them to do their part for the Volk's future, and make more baby Turks.
(It's not going to happen. AKP has first to return them to illiteracy and then get them back to the village farms. And so far, they've only been able to make progress on the first front.)