The drama coming out of Wisconsin is just the beginning. Whether Gov. Scott Walker is recalled or not, there are several things we can be pretty sure will happen. I see four:

* Unions will take the political spotlight Wall Street once had;

* The myth that Obama is a brilliant campaigner will be destroyed;

* The fight will be on for Wisconsin II: The Revenge;

* Mitt Romney will be required to weigh in on it all -- in a big way.

That's great news if you want your election-year politics to be more interesting than they currently are. If you're already experiencing election fatigue, however...well, sorry.

Comments:


DocJay
Joined
Jul '11
DocJay

By all means let's have this election at least partly about public service unions.

Mitt Romney has a wonderful opportunity follow the Walker win to stand up and say that our nation's fiscal woes are more important than sweetheart political deals which are bankrupting our citizens.  

Edited on June 5, 2012 at 8:50pm
BlueAnt
Joined
Aug '10
BlueAnt

As much as I would like to see it happen, I doubt unions will take the political spotlight away from the economy and the government's response to the financial crisis.  Class warfare is classic campaign material; it's easier to vilify faceless corporations and extravagant rich people than the middle class guy who got the higher wages you want through his union.

More importantly, unions are only coming under the spotlight at the state level, not the federal level.  Presidential races are largely about the national scale, or issues the federal government will address.  Unless the GOP can translate the dangers of public unions from a local problem to a national one, they won't have an effective message to pitch against the Democratic support of a key constituency.

...and I have very little faith in Republican message nimbleness, or that Romney is savvy enough to pivot to a strong attack along this front.

DrewInWisconsin
Joined
Aug '11
DrewInWisconsin

* The fight will be on for Wisconsin II: The Revenge;

Actually, this particular election is already "Wisconsin V: We're The Sorest Losers Ever!" (with Wisconsin I, II, III, and IV having already occurred, and Democrats losing each time. The first was the original GOP sweep in 2010. II was the first round of recalls. III was the Supreme Court election, and IV was the second round of recalls). There's no reason to think this time they'll finally accept a loss.

Edited on June 5, 2012 at 8:29pm
Valiuth
Joined
Apr '11
Valiuth

I have high hopes for Wisconsin. Sitting here in the "Windy City" I am watching our mayor going up against the teachers union who is threatening to strike because they are only getting a 2% raise, and being asked to do slightly more work for it. I never thought I would be on Rham Emanuel's side, but you know what they say about the lesser of two evils. 

I think these public employ union pensions are going to come to the front more and more politically. I think if people in states like IL, NY, and CA can see that Wisconsin was able to curtail these people we might have some hope of it too. Given some brave leadership (which is sorely lacking in these state I know). 

Miffed White Male
Joined
Mar '11
Jeff Richter
Valiuth: I think these public employ union pensions are going to come to the front more and more politically. I think if people in states like IL, NY, and CA can see that Wisconsin was able to curtail these people we might have some hope of it too.

And the thing is, Walker's not even "curtailing" benefits.  Public employees still get the exact same pension benefit as before.  They can still retire at 55.  All that is changed is that they now have to pay into the pension system out of their paychecks instead of having the taxpayers pick up the entire tab.


Joined
Oct '11
Bassett and Wilson

Someone wrote today that these are the death rattles of the old blue coalition. The blue coalition can't survive long term with low population growth, aging society, and low or no economic growth. It will lead to a Europe style crisis if unreformed. I assume Rahm E. understands this to some extent. In WI we have a good example of what not to do. IL raised taxes significantly but it wasn't enough and they are now flailing around trying to figure out what to do next.

DrewInWisconsin
Joined
Aug '11
DrewInWisconsin

I'm nervous. Madison's voter turnout is reportedly 112%.

John Marzan
Joined
Oct '10
John Marzan

If Walker wins, will this pressure states like California and Illinois to take on their public sector unions?

James Poulos
John Marzan: If Walker wins, will this pressure states like California and Illinois to take on their public sector unions? · 14 hours ago

It's already happening in San Jose and San Diego:

Public employee unions that aggressively fought the measures weren't able to overcome the simple message supporters used to attract voters in San Diego and San Jose: Pensions for city workers are unaffordable [...].

Imagine.

Jerry Brown is also now taking heat for declining to follow even Rahm Emanuel's lead on these matters.

James Poulos
Bassett and Wilson: Someone wrote today that these are the death rattles of the old blue coalition. The blue coalition can't survive long term with low population growth, aging society, and low or no economic growth. It will lead to a Europe style crisis if unreformed. I assume Rahm E. understands this to some extent. In WI we have a good example of what not to do. IL raised taxes significantly but it wasn't enough and they are now flailing around trying to figure out what to do next. · 17 hours ago

That'd be Walter Russell Mead, who's a must-read on this.


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