The United States, Exceptional No Longer
From Arthur Brooks's column today, perhaps the saddest words the Wall Street Journal has ever published:
I'm often asked if I think America is trending toward becoming a European-style social democracy. My answer is: "No, because we already are a European-style social democracy." From the progressivity of our tax code, to the percentage of GDP devoted to government, to the extent of the regulatory burden on business, most of Europe's got nothing on us.
In 1938—the year my organization, the American Enterprise Institute, was founded—total government spending at all levels was about 15% of GDP. By 2010 it was 36%. The political right can crow all it wants about how America is a "conservative country," unlike, say, Spain—a country governed by the Spanish Socialist Workers Party for most of the past 30 years. But at 36%, U.S. government spending relative to GDP is very close to Spain's. And our debt-to-GDP ratio is 103%; Spain's is 68%.
The United States of America, exceptional no longer.
Can this be so?
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May '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
Yes, it can be so, but that isn't reason to be disheartened. The first step in solving a problem or overcoming a crippling addiction is admitting the problem is real.
Good on Mr. Brooks for calling the balls and strikes.
I believe the U.S. can/will be the first nation to turn itself around from debt:GDP >100% and indeed we will prosper. If only we first admit that we are in trouble and what we are doing isn't working.
Returning to a constitutionally limited government where free enterprise may flourish, balancing the budget this year, and we will be exceptional again, very soon.
Edited on July 9, 2012 at 8:18pmDec '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
The people, individually, remain exceptional. Just call on them in a time of crisis and see what happens. Collectively and as represented by our government, not quite so exceptional anymore.
Jun '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
By the numbers the US is essentially a social democracy, but there's a crucial difference between us and the Europeans. If you check out the red/blue map by county for the last election, you will see that the blue districts are clustered mainly in urban areas where government employment and/or government dependency is high. The vast swath of red country in between is still conservative based on traditional values. Europe is more highly urbanized that the US which correlates directly with their advanced state of decadence. If red can make a comeback in this election, we still have a chance to remain exceptional. Mitt, you listening?
Jun '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
I'm not sure if anyone corrected it in the comments to the article on the WSJ site, but I believe Spain's national government has guaranteed the debts of its regional governments as well as various government companies and private banks. Thus, the Spanish debt-to-GDP figure isn't that meaningful.
Of course, we have many of the same issues as well, which is why I'm not very upbeat about a pre-crash turnaround for the U.S.
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
"If red can make a comeback, we still have a chance to remain exceptional."
I'd never thought of it that way. Beautifully, beautifully put.
Edited on July 9, 2012 at 8:38pmJun '11
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
There is reason for hope but there is a lot of reason for hair pulling when you see headlines like this:
A Republican dominated house set to spend tax dollars to stop bullying in schools.
Is there anything at which they WILL NOT throw our money?
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
BrentB67:
Good on Mr. Brooks for calling the balls and strikes.
Yup. Arthur calls 'em as he sees 'em, a service in itself.
Jul '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
And, of course, all of these countries cited have fervent Tea Party movements seeking to batter back the dead hand of government on the economy and demanding adherence to an 18th Century Whig constitution.
May '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
michael kelley: There is reason for hope but there is a lot of reason for hair pulling when you see headlines like this:
A Republican dominated house set to spend tax dollars to stop bullying in schools.
Is there anything at which they WILL NOT throw our money? · 16 minutes ago
These are same republicans that are going to turn back the tide of federal 0ver reach when Gov. Romney gets elected president?
A good indicator that a piece of legislation is a really bad idea is when Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) is the sponsor.
Jun '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
Many of our college graduates are carefully prepared and greatly encouraged to go out and undermine America's traditions, redesign the American family, denigrate America's patriotism and religious faith, and lo and behold, those graduates follow through. A bad education works for the bad about as well as a good education works for the good.
Dec '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
BrentB67
michael kelley: There is reason for hope but there is a lot of reason for hair pulling when you see headlines like this:
A Republican dominated house set to spend tax dollars to stop bullying in schools.
Is there anything at which they WILL NOT throw our money? · 16 minutes ago
These are same republicans that are going to turn back the tide of federal 0ver reach when Gov. Romney gets elected president?
A good indicator that a piece of legislation is a really bad idea is when Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) is the sponsor. · 0 minutes ago
The constitutional authority statement of the bill:
You guessed it, the general welfare (blanket authority in many minds) clause. It's time we rehash the Madison/Hamilton debate over this clause.
Mar '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
This is the legacy of Progressive, New Deal and Great Society programs that Republicans in office can nibble at the edges of, but never repeal. Thus, we are allowed rhetorical victories (Reagan, W. Bush) and temporarily lower tax rates, but without repealing (or even reforming) any of the entitlement programs, farm subsidies, Freddy and Fannie implicit guarantees, the spending gobbles up ever greater share of GDP. This is a measure of the challenge conservatives face.
But what should give us the greatest encouragement is the fact that for the first time in my lifetime, this election is about the repeal of a massive entitlement program just enacted. If Romney and a Republican Congress can get elected on that platform, and follow through, they will have accomplished what even Reagan could not do. And it will prove that America is indeed exceptional.
Apr '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
There is always Texas
May '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
Peter, for reasons entirely understandable, you may be falling prey to a Beltway notion. Shake it off. The things that make America exceptional have never been found inside the Beltway except as they have occasionally been carried in there by some few of our representative. The things that make America exceptional are, first and foremost, in the hearts and minds of the American people. The list is long and we've seen it many times before. From religious fervor to risk-taking propensity to creative genius to compassion in disaster.....and many, many more. The Beltway-oriented numbers you cite are the evidence that our elected representative are self-interested poltroons who are selling our birthright for a mess of pottage.
Aug '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
I'm afraid that political correctness partnered with a permanently ensconced ruling class in DC have moved us past the point of no return. Our populace has gotten so soft that former luxuries are now rights. The powerful motivation of shame has long been banished from the public square. Our society has been too properous for too long resulting in virtues like sacrifice and delayed gratification becoming forgotten concepts.
All of these conditions directly effect the budgetary abyss into which we are now staring.
Although I have always been and still remain optimistic in my personal life, when it comes to the future of our great nation I am forced by circumstances to be pessimistic...
Jun '11
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
The King Prawn
BrentB67
michael kelley: There is reason for hope but there is a lot of reason for hair pulling when you see headlines like this:
A Republican dominated house set to spend tax dollars to stop bullying in schools.
Is there anything at which they WILL NOT throw our money? · 16 minutes ago
These are same republicans that are going to turn back the tide of federal 0ver reach when Gov. Romney gets elected president?
A good indicator that a piece of legislation is a really bad idea is when Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX) is the sponsor. · 0 minutes ago
The constitutional authority statement of the bill:
You guessed it, the general welfare (blanket authority in many minds) clause. It's time we rehash the Madison/Hamilton debate over this clause. · 15 minutes ago
In other words, we're being bullied by the general welfare clause?
O.M.G. Where do I apply for my federal grant?
Oct '10
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
As soon as I saw the title of the post I knew you read Brooks' piece in WSJ. what gives me hope are the stories I hear about how Americans stand out when abroad. We may be screwing up but I think we still have our unique identity. It's like what Churchill said about counting on us to do the right thing, after we've exhausted all other possibilities.
Feb '11
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
Victor Davis Hanson has noted that decline is a choice.
I agree- but I think the choice was made decades ago when among other things the US abandoned South Vietnam and cancelled the last few Apollo missions. So we've been traveling on the road to ruin a good long time.
But people are finally noticing. That gives me hope. I would be much more worried if no one saw a problem with our situation.
I'll also note the William Strauss and Neil Howe predicted this sort of existential crisis for the United States in their 1998 book The Fourth Turning. I continue to be amazed at how prescient their predictions were- and not least because they picked 2008 as the year the crisis would begin.
They did not, however, predict a happy ending to the crisis. But all in all I have a much more optimistic view of events because of their book- because they predicted society would change.
The Tea Party emerged, etc. All is not lost, despite John Roberts.
Jul '12
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
In what sense are we exceptional?
We're the largest Western nation and our demographics are more vigorous than most other Western nations.
However we're certainly not as different from other nations as we used to be.
There used to be a forward thinking aspect of America where we not only expected an improved life for our children but we worked to make it so. Now we seem more oriented towards cashing out America for our own benefit than building it up for our children.
I think the prevalence of big government, big labor and big business encourages us to think "what can I get out of this" instead of "what can I contribute to this". In this way I think most big organizations contain the seeds of their own decline as they rot from the inside out. Big businesses and big labor continue to fail where government hasn't bailed them out. Local governments have begun to fail. The issue is whether our national government has become so big that it will bring America down with it when it finally fails.
Mar '11
Re: The United States, Exceptional No Longer
Mr Brooks is exactly right.
I'm not sure if America can ever be exceptional again. The fact that the polls are so close between Mr Obama and Mr Romney is a disturbing clue - it should be a landslide for the syphilitic camel. Maybe it will be?
If not - Greece, here we come.