The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
As the former pollster for President Clinton, Douglas Schoen can hardly be counted among Mitt Romney's admirers. But get a load of this excerpt from Schoen's article, "The Truth About 2012 Polls," over at FoxNews:
Democratic registration may be overstated. It is my belief that many weak Obama voters are saying that they are Democrats when they really aren’t partisans at all: they are disillusioned with American politics. What this means is that these people aren’t even certain to vote in November and if they stay home, Obama’s numbers will surely be affected.
Additionally, fewer young people will turn out at the polls this year. As evidenced by Obama’s push to mobilize the youth vote, a group that he won handily in 2008, demonstrates, this is a key group that is becoming increasingly apathetic and is apt to turn out in fewer numbers....
To be sure, Obama is in the lead. The polls are oversampling Democrats, but he remains ahead. But it is also a lead that should not be exaggerated. The race is not over yet and the debates beginning next week will be a decisive test for both the president and Governor Romney.
The newest soundtrack for my mood? Why, this.
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Comments:
Jun '12
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
You remind me of this guy today, and hopefully the next 46 days.
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
No one knows or can know what the partisan turnout will be in November. It is not, however, at all likely that the Democratic turnout will equal or exceed that of 2008, and that is what many of the polls presume. I believe that the mix will be closer to that of 2010, and the Rasmussen and Gallup polls regarding self-identified Republicans and Democrats fit such a presumption. Right now it may be a toss-up. It won't be after the debates.
Dec '11
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
"Life is like a box of chocolates..." Will unrap on November 7. Meanwhile I am voting ABO (anyone but Obama).
Jul '11
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
The first debate means everything in terms of Romney strategy. Obama is desperately trying to figure out what Mitt's strategy will be. Axelrod is finding out the questions.
Sep '10
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
Peter,
I completely agree with your mood. I can't put my finger on anything in particular but once I decided to pay less attention, my confidence in the outcome improved markedly.
It's similar to the sense I had of the Packers a couple of years ago and the Giants last year. Both barely made it into the playoffs. But all the other teams knew they were the ones with momentum.
And sure enough they both cruised through to the title. That's not to say there weren't tense times along the way. But both seemed to have the wind at their back - even though all the numbers said otherwise.
"...or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the polls."
Aug '12
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
I heard, though at this time I cannot find where, that Mitt Romney is planning to spend the debate fact checking Obama.
I don't know whether to be thrilled waiting for the "there you go again moment" or terrified that I'm going to get what I have long thought someone needed to do -call the President on his record and public statements -and it won't matter a lick.
Mar '11
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
The conservative pundit-mediocrity seems to be our side's own worst enemy. Even some writers on National Review Online's "The Corner" are nervous nellys. Really?? I can block out the MSM and liberal bloggers. Do I now have to do the same for our own side?? To paraphrase Ross Perot: This is just plain ridiculous!!
Remember that this isn't a battle to win it for Romney -- it's to save the nation against a European socialist form of government. If Obama wins, having a Republican majority in the Congress won't stop him. Lest we forget his penchant for Executive Orders, the fact that he commands our armed forces and sets our foreign policy, US EPA and HHS would be given free reign (i.e., no fracking and climate change cap & trade), business would be shackled, recession is just a hair away from happening, and worst of all: the likelihood of retiring Supreme Court justices in the next four years. Conservative Pundits: Get real here and get a spine!!
Jun '12
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
It amazes me, that I would find so much negativism in the most respected and conservative corners of this country.
Jun '12
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
Probably right here.
May '10
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
The election will be won or lost in the Midwest.
I know it's hard for Rob, Jonah, Peter, and the other "coastals" to realize the absolute detestation there is in the Midwest for this president and what he has done/still is doing to this country.
I would like to think that Chick-Fil-A day was a dry run for November 6th. We shall see...
May '10
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
Walker:
Remember that this isn't a battle to win it for Romney -- it's to save the nation against a European socialist form of government. 7 hours ago
THIS
Sep '12
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
Polls showing an Obama lead shouldn't depress the conservative vote because sticking our thumbs in the King's eye regardless of the costs to ourselves is what we conservatives are all about. Good call, Mr. Robinson.
Jan '11
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
Of course Romney's going to win Texas.
But I take it as a hopeful sign for the nation that in our nice, genteel, upper-middle-class neighborhood full of college-educated professionals, in Austin no less, I have so far seen only one Obama yard sign and no Obama bumper stickers.
Oh, wait. There are plenty of "Obama 2008" bumper stickers. But they're kind of hard to read. Most of them have that fashionably distressed look, as if somebody's been trying to scratch them off.
Mar '11
Re: The Truth About the Polls, Or, What Have We to Lose But a Life of Starvation and Servitude?
PTomanovich: Peter,
I completely agree with your mood. I can't put my finger on anything in particular but once I decided to pay less attention, my confidence in the outcome improved markedly.
It's similar to the sense I had of the Packers a couple of years ago and the Giants last year. Both barely made it into the playoffs. But all the other teams knew they were the ones with momentum.
And sure enough they both cruised through to the title. That's not to say there weren't tense times along the way. But both seemed to have the wind at their back - even though all the numbers said otherwise.
"...or: How I learned to stop worrying and love the polls." · 17 hours ago
My sentiments exactly, without the cool sports analogy - thanks!