The Transom: November 14, 2011
Today I'll be posting a near-full edition of The Transom, which I hope you'll enjoy. On future days, I may just excerpt portions of it, as it's rather long.
November 14, 2011: Obama’s Economy, The Field, Those Dumb Tea Partiers, Obama v. Mitch Daniels II, Equality of Taxation, Guitar Man and the Government, Bitters
OBAMA’S ECONOMY:
OECD: All major economies headed for slowdowns. http://vlt.tc/a0
“The Paris-based organization's composite leading indicator (CLI) for its members fell for the seventh straight month to 100.4 in September, down from 100.9 in August and hitting the lowest reading since December 2009. Readings for individual countries and big developing world economies were broadly lower at levels indicating slowdowns, and were in many cases below their long-term averages. "Compared to last month's assessment, the CLIs point more strongly to slowdowns in all major economies," the OECD said in a statement.”
Generation Jobless: “No one wants to hire me.” http://vlt.tc/8a
“The unemployment rate among teens and adults under the age of 24 now stands at 16.7%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics; that's more than twice the rate for workers 25 and older. Those with little or no college education are the hardest hit, but even degree-holders are having trouble landing jobs.”
A key problem is the sciences: http://vlt.tc/8b
“Students who drop out of science majors and professors who study the phenomenon say that introductory courses are often difficult and abstract. Some students, like Ms. Zhou, say their high schools didn't prepare them for the level of rigor in the introductory courses. Overall, only 45% of 2011 U.S. high-school graduates who took the ACT test were prepared for college-level math and only 30% of ACT-tested high-school graduates were ready for college-level science, according to a 2011 report by ACT Inc.”
Obama hearts the big guys: http://vlt.tc/88
“Smaller community banks haven’t fared as well. Wall Street banks have the manpower to comply with new restrictions endorsed by Obama and passed by Congress. Small banks don’t. Big banks are thriving while interest rates are near zero. The loan business of small banks suffers because of these rates. At the same time, corporations are sitting on nearly $2 trillion amassed during the Obama era. If invested, the money would surely stir economic growth and job creation. But Obama has refused to remove impediments to investment, chiefly future tax hikes and regulations.”
Pelosi’s investments (and those of others) questioned in 60 Minutes story. http://vlt.tc/87 Here’s the pretty damning report: http://vlt.tc/8q Looks like a bunch of stuff that’s unethical but not illegal. http://vlt.tc/8u Why the heck can Congresscritters get away with insider trading?
Obama’s job destruction plan. http://vlt.tc/85 “Jobs killed by the Obama environmental machine: 2,676,000.”
RELATED: Obama: Americans are lazy. http://vlt.tc/81 Tarrance Group: Obama beats Romney 47-34 among Independents. http://vlt.tc/9p 80% of the green loans went to Obama financial backers. http://vlt.tc/9q Pretty fun to work at Fannie and Freddie, if by fun you mean “profit”. And I usually do. http://vlt.tc/9e Frank Miller vs. Occupy Wall Street. http://vlt.tc/83 OWS: The updating rap sheet. http://vlt.tc/9j OWS health concerns rise. http://vlt.tc/93 Why OWS won’t be the Democrats’ Tea Party. http://vlt.tc/9a Jeffrey Sachs on the New Progressive Movement. http://vlt.tc/9t Pelosi blames Republican obstruction for the President not passing a budget in three years. http://vlt.tc/9b Mundell v. Friedman on the Euro. http://vlt.tc/8c The battle for France. http://vlt.tc/94 Germany keeps cutting taxes. http://vlt.tc/8w Monti takes the reins. http://vlt.tc/9m
THE FIELD:
According to campaign insiders, Newt Gingrich's debate preparation consists of a Diet Coke.
I explained why I thought Newt and Perry won here at Ricochet. http://vlt.tc/a2 Here’s the debate in full in case you missed it. http://vlt.tc/7l
The loser of the debate is just as obvious as the winners: Herman Cain. http://vlt.tc/82 His answers were gingerly constructed and hopelessly vague, convincing just about no one that he had a firm grasp of the subject matter. http://vlt.tc/78 But I assume he’s still qualified to be Romney’s SecDef? http://vlt.tc/8n
If there’s another loser, it’s CBS, despite the high number of viewers: their online feed couldn’t handle the traffic, and Scott Pelley, the moderator, was pretty terrible. “RT @rickdunham: I'm still amused by that last question from Pelley to Perry: Explain the European debt crisis and how you'd solve it ... in 30 seconds.”
This morning, Jon Huntsman – who once again had a pretty solid debate performance – hits Romney on his apparent support for a trade war with China. http://vlt.tc/8v From ABC’s Jake Tapper on Twitter: “Romney book seemed to have a different take on China [than the one he’s espoused in the past two debates]. He criticized Obama for being too aggressive re: China and US tire cos "Obama’s action to defend American tire companies from foreign competition may make good politics by repaying unions... but it is decidedly bad for the nation and our workers. Protectionism stifles productivity." How does that square w/his current posture?”
A more pointed question might be: Is Romney’s position really all that different from Obama’s? http://vlt.tc/9z Phil Klein: the resistance to Romney remains stubborn. http://vlt.tc/9c More insight from Roger Kimball on Romney: http://vlt.tc/7i
“Mitt Romney is our Bob Dole, a company man at a moment when the problem is the company. We are living through a serious crisis–really, multiple crises — and many people look at old Mr. Business-as-usual, “is-it-my-turn yet?” Romney and wonder whether he is really up to the job. He deploys a sly, knowing smile when Rick Perry forgets how to count from 1 to 3. He certainly has competent hair — the most competent, I think, of the entire campaign. But what, besides competent hair, can be said for him? That he’s not Obama — true enough, and that fact should not be minimized. BUt think of the relatively small proportion of people who are Obama. That cannot be the distinguishing feature of the successful Republican candidate. What we need is vigor, leadership, and wisdom, not the path of least resistance dolled up with an attractive herbaceous border.”
Cain’s campaign finally gets his wife on television, with Greta as the friendly interviewer. http://vlt.tc/9n We’ll see how this plays. Cain’s camp is likely recognizing the damage the scandal talk has done.
There are some new polls this AM from Politico/GWU and NBC/WSJ but they have so much flux for Cain within them, they’re basically useless (got 40% in day one of WSJ poll, down to 19% in day 4). CBSNews poll from Friday: http://vlt.tc/6z "Cain has lost support among women since late October. Then, he led among women, garnering 28 percent of their support. Now, his support among women is just 15 percent. He has also lost ground with conservatives, from 30 percent to 23 percent now. And there has been some movement among Tea Party supporters as well; their support for Cain has declined from 32 percent to 19 percent. Romney has lost support among men, while Gingrich's support among that group has increased eight points." This poll was taken almost a week ago, and it’s Insider Advantage, so that's two caveats. http://vlt.tc/73 But as AllahPundit points out: "Cain's lead in Iowa falls from 15 points to 4 points in Insider Advantage polls taken five days apart." But more importantly, note the spreads, and see the trend: women peeling away from Cain in droves.
Note: the 15% percent saying someone else/no opinion is overwhelmingly female. 1 out of 5 Iowa Republican women LVs have not made up their minds. Something to keep in mind.
Meanwhile, based on no evidence, Mark Block continues to blame the Perry camp for publicizing Cain's women issues. http://vlt.tc/74 So does Cain. http://vlt.tc/8p Block notes “we don't have researchers” as a defense for his factual problems – but if he’s actually raised $9 million, there's no excuse not to, right? Otherwise a more accurate Mark Block statement would be “we don't care if the facts get in the way of lying.” Erickson tells Cain he needs to fire his staff (except for the fundraisers). http://vlt.tc/97
RELATED: Newt: There is no point in beating Obama with someone who doesn't know what they believe. http://vlt.tc/75 This seems like a real stretch in attacks on Newt. http://vlt.tc/8d Newt in his natural habitat. http://vlt.tc/7x Perry in his. http://vlt.tc/7y Evangelical votes still up for grabs in Iowa. http://vlt.tc/7w George Will on his wife joining Team Perry. http://vlt.tc/7j On the Huntsman point, a good argument for why he’s more conservative than you think. http://vlt.tc/8j Trade attorney Scott Lincicome on why Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan could violate WTO rules. http://vlt.tc/8t Bachmann: America should be more like China, what with their letting old people die and all. http://vlt.tc/7n Bachmann’s cry of bias is valid – it’s just a reminder of how well the media has directed this entire primary experience. http://vlt.tc/7z “Steadiness and Constancy.” http://vlt.tc/9l Perhaps this tactic explains why Reihan Salam and others said Romney would endorse competitive bidding when he ultimately didn’t? http://vlt.tc/89 Harold Bloom on the Mormon Breakthrough. http://vlt.tc/8r “RT: @nationaljournal: .@ron_fournier: Romney can't have it both ways with military spending.” Eh, you don’t know Mitt. http://vlt.tc/76 When I suggested this NYT article was just meant to remind us how much Mitt looks like Jon Hamm, savvy journo points out that he’s actually more Reed Richards. http://vlt.tc/7d And that’s more apt, anyway.
THOSE DUMB TEA PARTIERS:
This reaction from Jamie Fly of the Foreign Policy Institute (nee PNAC) illustrates exactly why neoconservative obliviousness has allowed the Tea Party to reach the point they have on Defense funding: http://vlt.tc/7e
“Unfortunately, given that almost everything discussed tonight related to America’s military capabilities, the candidates did not spend much time discussing perhaps the paramount threat to our national security: cuts to the defense budget. Sen. Jim DeMint used his opportunity to question the candidates to ask about deficit reduction. This focus on domestic issues at a national-security debate is emblematic of the myopic view that many in the Tea Party have shown toward the problems facing the United States.”
I’m not sure why Fly is so eager to be out of step not just with DeMint and the Tea Party here but with much of the Republican base. The unfortunate truth is that the inability (or lack of interest) of he and his allies to approach the fiscally conservative base on the right has exacerbated a perfectly avoidable problem between the legs of the stool. This oped-and-insider-meetings approach to communicating has allowed more rampant DOD cutters to own the conversation at the ground level. As for considering the deficit a national security issue: when you’re out of step with the base of your party, with Jim DeMint, with SecDef Gates, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, you may want to reassess who’s being “myopic.”
This week, the national Tea Party Debt Commission prepares to unveil its proposal to the Super Committee on Capitol Hill, at an event hosted by Senator Mike Lee. Number two on their top ten list of targets for budget cuts? The Pentagon. http://vlt.tc/7g
OBAMA ADMIN VS. MITCH DANIELS PART II:
More from Avik Roy on the Healthy Indiana Plan under assault: http://vlt.tc/80
“A 2010 study by Mathematica Policy Research found that the program dramatically increased the percentage of beneficiaries who obtained preventive care, from 39 percent in the first six months of enrollment to 59 percent after one year. Of the members who had money left in the POWER accounts at the end of the year, 71 percent met the preventive care requirement and were able to roll the balances over to the following year… This is an astounding achievement, given that the biggest problem with Medicaid is the way that it ghettoizes its participants, preventing them from gaining access to routine medical and dental care. This lack of physician access is the biggest reason why health outcomes for Medicaid patients lag far behind those of individuals with private insurance, and even behind those with no insurance at all. Healthy Indiana has completely reversed this trend, achieving preventive care participation rates that are higher than the privately-insured population.”
THE EQUALITY OF TAXATION ACT:
Shades of Atlas Shrugged: http://vlt.tc/7b
“Jerrold Nadler, a Democratic representative whose district includes parts of the West Side and other affluent sections of Manhattan, introduced the Tax Equity Act in 2009, which proposed “to amend the Internal Revenue Code of 1986 to provide for adjustments in the individual income tax rates to reflect regional differences in the cost of living.” The bill mustered eight co-sponsors, all from New York except for Representative Jim Himes, who represents Fairfield County, Conn. It went nowhere.”
“In September, Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, said that “$250,000 makes you really rich in Mississippi, but it doesn’t make you rich at all in New York, and there ought to be some kind of scale based on the cost of living on how much you pay.”
FEATURE:
The Government and the Guitar Man. http://vlt.tc/8g
ITEMS OF INTEREST:
Iran is proud of its nukes. http://vlt.tc/9y Hey Israel, I see what you did there. http://vlt.tc/9v
Has Italy heard the last of Silvio? http://vlt.tc/a1
Welcome back to Asia, America. http://vlt.tc/9x
Putin blasts the West. http://vlt.tc/7v Putin’s Army: http://vlt.tc/79 Medvedev’s cheerleaders: http://vlt.tc/8y Cue Strangelove: “Women, selected for their beauty…”
Tense moments with Hu Jintao. http://vlt.tc/7u
Downgrading India. http://vlt.tc/8f
Vyacheslav Danilenko’s role in Iran’s nuke program. http://vlt.tc/9r
Powerline’s multipart series on NPR’s biased coverage of a Dakota story is pretty damning. http://vlt.tc/9i
Turns out Elena Kagan was pretty psyched when they passed Obamacare. http://vlt.tc/8m
Sens. Barrasso and Coburn on Medicare reform. http://vlt.tc/92
Responding to medical device taxes, manufacturers cut jobs. http://vlt.tc/8k
Employers continue to drop health coverage. http://vlt.tc/9k
Bill Gates on innovation and vaccines. http://vlt.tc/96
Why an online sales tax won’t fill state budget holes. http://vlt.tc/98
Lulu vs. Amazon. http://vlt.tc/8l
The case for right to carry reciprocity. http://vlt.tc/9s
@JohnEkdahl: "So there really is an infinite number of universes? No, just the two. " http://vlt.tc/95
“What a shame to have such a lovely home and not be able to fit through the door.” http://vlt.tc/9g
Lessons from looking for love on the internet. http://vlt.tc/7m
Slight error with the Atlas Shrugged DVD. http://vlt.tc/9f
We dare you to race our ad. http://vlt.tc/84
Jimmy Fallon has finally found the thing he’s good at. http://vlt.tc/8x
Liam Neeson: Funniest man alive. http://vlt.tc/8e
How to make Orange Bitters. http://vlt.tc/9h
PODCAST:
Is a two-tiered Eurozone in the offing? http://vlt.tc/91
QUOTE:
“If ever the Time should come, when vain & aspiring Men shall possess the highest Seats in Government, our Country will stand in Need of its experienced Patriots to prevent its Ruin.” – Sam Adams
RECOMMENDED:
Bitters: A Spirited History of a Classic Cure-All, with Cocktails, Recipes, and Formulas, by Brad Thomas Parsons, $16. http://vlt.tc/90 Find this and more recommendations at The Transom's Amazon Store: http://vlt.tc/2d
If you wish to sponsor a week of The Transom, our new ad sheet is available here. http://vlt.tc/8z You can subscribe through our Facebook page, too. Share it with friends! http://www.facebook.com/thetransom
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Comments :
May '10
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Got my first emailed copy this morning following Diane's advice. You are a machine Ben! Thank you for this public service. I have no hope of consuming it all but it's nice to know where it all is...
Feb '11
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Ben,
Welcome to Ricochet! Just like Trace, I signed up for the Transom this morning. I have enjoyed your Coffee and Markets podcast immensely since I started listening several weeks ago. I also recommended it to a college friend who wants to learn more about economics, finance and politics. Thank you for these wonderful services!
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Thanks so much, Jordan! Glad you enjoy it, and hope you keep listening.
Feb '11
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Most excellent service!
Nov '10
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Wow. I can't imagine having time to read it all, let alone compile it. Very impressive. Thanks.
Oct '10
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
A rich pudding of linkage!
To ask a medium rather than message question, what is the benefit of using your personal short link domain? So you can track the click-throughs for your editorial fine-tuning and advertisers? (I'm genuinely curious.) Is there something vlt.tc can be meant to mean? Very Low Threshold? Visible Light Transmitted? Very Large Telescope? Or, more ominously, Vault Tec Industries?
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
genferei: A rich pudding of linkage!
To ask a medium rather than message question, what is the benefit of using your personal short link domain? So you can track the click-throughs for your editorial fine-tuning and advertisers? (I'm genuinely curious.) Is there something vlt.tc can be meant to mean? Very Low Threshold? Visible Light Transmitted? Very Large Telescope? Or, more ominously, Vault Tec Industries? · Nov 14 at 6:19am
As a matter of fact, you're exactly right about the reference. You win a Vault Boy!
As for the use of a bespoke url shortener: originally I was using Google's shortener (since about half the 3k or so subscribers get it on mobile devices, shortening in necessary for readability), but then I found it wasn't playing nicely with spam filters. So I made this one instead.
Edited on Nov 14, 2011 at 7:29amDec '10
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Just a content note; I have brought this up before, in the Member Feed, but it would seem we are not being well-served by the political/pundit class, as regards the sequestration process and it's impact on defense spending.
From that link, this graph depicts the actual impact; a reduction in the rate of growth in defense spending, as projected by the CBO, not an actual reduction in spending:
I don't think it is myopic of this Tea Partier to question the veracity of those that are predicting dire consequences for the Defense Budget, if we slow the rate of the growth of that budget, down to $10 Billion per year, for the next 10 years.
Dec '10
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
Welcome Ben. As others have commented, huge fan of The Transom & appreciate all the effort. Given all the stuff you've got going on, I've decided you don't sleep - ever!
I'm completely addicted to your regular discussions w/Francis Cianfrocca (aka Blackhedd from Redstate) who I consider as indispensable as Victor David Hanson. I started reading & listening to his conversations with you & Brad during the run-up and subsequent market crash. It is scary how right he was then & how ominous he sounds (to me) now.
Appreciate all you do!
Looking forward to the Huntsman interview being posted.
Re: The Transom: November 14, 2011
paulebe: Welcome Ben. As others have commented, huge fan of The Transom & appreciate all the effort. Given all the stuff you've got going on, I've decided you don't sleep - ever!
I'm completely addicted to your regular discussions w/Francis Cianfrocca (aka Blackhedd from Redstate) who I consider as indispensable as Victor David Hanson. I started reading & listening to his conversations with you & Brad during the run-up and subsequent market crash. It is scary how right he was then & how ominous he sounds (to me) now.
Appreciate all you do!
Looking forward to the Huntsman interview being posted. · Nov 14 at 5:35pm
Thanks so much, paulebe - yes, I'm a big believer in caffeine. :)