The Syrian Time Bomb
British writer Patrick Seale argues that Syria trumps Libya in its need for attention from the U.S. and the world. Excerpts from his exhaustive piece:
... if Washington is looking for an Arab state in the throes of unrest, one that is key to its regional and national interests, planners might want to pay more attention to Syria, which is currently undergoing upheaval not seen since the early 1980s.
Syria lies at the center of a dense network of Middle East relationships, and the crisis in that country -- which has now resulted in the deaths of well over 100 civilians, and possibly close to double that number -- is likely to have a major impact on the regional
structure of power ...
But now that Syria has been weakened by internal problems, the viability of the entire axis is in danger -- which could encourage dangerous risk-taking behavior by its allies as they seek to counter perceived gains by the United States and Israel ...
If the regime fails to tame this domestic unrest, Syria's external influence will inevitably be enfeebled, with dramatic repercussions across the Middle East. As the crisis deepens, Syria's allies tremble. Meanwhile, its enemies rejoice, as a weakened Syria would remove an obstacle to their ambitions.
On all these fronts -- Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Palestine, Israel -- Syria is a key player. But its internal problems now threaten to reshuffle the cards, adding to the general sense of insecurity and latent violence in the region. And of all the threats facing the Middle East, perhaps the greatest -- greater even than of another Arab-Israeli clash -- is that of rampant sectarianism, poisoning relationships between and within states, and breeding hate, intolerance, and mistrust ...
Indeed, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton seemed to offer the regime some modest support this weekend, noting that she believed [President] Bashar to be a "reformer." But reform has never been a primary goal of the Assad clan, which has long favored stability over change.
This edifice may now be crumbling, and the United States would be wise to spend a little less time thinking about Libya and a little more time thinking about a state that truly has implications on U.S. national interests. If things go south in Syria, blood-thirsty sectarian demons risk being unleashed, and the entire region could be consumed in an orgy of violence.
Could Syrian unrest become the bigger problem in the Middle East? And is this our next military endeavor? Seale writes: "Turkey is deeply concerned by the Syrian disturbances." For Claire, what would a Syrian regime fall mean for Turkey?
President Bashar al-Assad is due to address Syria in the next 48 hours, an eagerly anticipated speech that could help defuse the crisis, or lead to more protests and violence, Seale says.
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Nov '10
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
Libya may be of paramount importance to Europeans, but in my opinion, Syria is of far more strategic importance to us. As is Iran. And yet these are the areas we've chosen not to get involved in. The mind boggles.
Oh--and if Bashar is a reformer, I'll eat my hat.
ETA: Just clicked over to read a little something from Michael Ledeen, which bears directly on your piece. I quote just the title and the last line: "Why not Syria and Iran? Hell, why not North Korea? ...It’s not that the Libyan thing is a bad thing. It’s that it’s not the main thing. We still are not even beginning to talk about the main thing." Amen.
Edited on Mar 29, 2011 at 7:07amRe: The Syrian Time Bomb
All 32 members of the Syrian cabinet resigned en masse today, presumably under orders from on high (as was the case in Jordan). This sounds big, but is effectively pretty cosmetic (Assad runs the show, and he's still in place).
As you said, Assad is supposed to address the people soon. He'll probably rescind at least some if not all of the emergency measures. We'll see if that quells popular anger. My guess is the people will be encouraged by any such concession to press for more.
If Assad falls, Iran will lose an ally, but could step in directly (which I would expect, considering their boldness elsewhere). One hopes the US is giving this scenario some thought.
May '10
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
A problem? A problem for whom? Syria is Iran's lever in the Levant, tearing Lebanon apart and threatening Israel.
It "lies at the center of a dense network of middle eastern relationships" in that it brings the power of our deadliest and least redeemable enemies to bear on a volatile part of the world. Alexander had the right idea on how to handle things that lie at the center of a dense network. Though he called it the Gordian knot.
We should have the same concern about unrest in Syria as we should have concern about possibly winning the powerball, though with somewhat better odds.
Jan '11
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
If I won the Powerball couldn't I just buy Syria?
May '10
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
Libya is war for oil - European oil interests - that provides military support from the "International Community." Syria has no strategic oil interest and thus will not receive the same "attention."
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
Lauren, I've been thinking about this question for about 90 minutes, and as unsatisfying as the answer is--it depends what happens next. Turkey has obviously poured itself into creating a cozy relationship with Assad. Serious unrest will mean refugees pouring across the border (nightmare for Turkey), God-knows-what involving Syrian Kurds (nightmare for Turkey) and another crushing blow to regional trade (nightmare for Turkey). It's also a massive rebuke to the whole premise of the AKP's foreign policy (cozy with everyone except Israel, which gets sacrificed, worry about the long-term problems in this region tomorrow). And my guess is that right now, they're panicking. But who isn't?
Nov '10
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
Good question and excellent point.
What was Anna Wintour thinking?
Edited on Mar 29, 2011 at 2:31pmJul '10
Re: The Syrian Time Bomb
I'd say if the gangsters that run Syria go packing, we shouldnt be worried...we should be partying! I mean if the friends of your arch-nemesis get there teeth knocked in, why cry?