The Summer of 2001
It is just me, or does anybody else around here have a strange sense we're reliving the kind of calm before the storm that characterised the summer of 2001 or perhaps, better synchronised with the U.S. electoral cycle, the summer of 1979, when everybody was focused on stagflation and malaise and didn't see either the Iran hostage crisis nor the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan impending?
“Everybody knows” the next election in the U.S. will be all about the economy, the deficit, the debt, and entitlements. The “news cycle” has spent more than a week recycling a trivial scandal involving a politician who is self-evidently a waste of the spacetime his world-line occupies.
As an investor, I'm always attentive to “contrary opinion”: when everybody knows something's going to happen, the market is guaranteed to have fully discounted it and the next major move is likely to be due to something entirely the opposite of the consensus view, or a black swan landing on the pond that nobody saw flaring for touchdown.
And so, let me suggest that in September 2012, what we'll all be talking about will have nothing to do with what occupies us today. We are in a non-serious phase of a locust time, and sharp-edged, unyielding, and inexorable events this way come, as they always do when feckless people are in charge in a world where, whenever you're sleeping, the other two thirds are up to something (the latter paraphrased from a quotation attributed to Dean Rusk).
What will this be? I've not the slightest idea, and yet my every instinct informs me that all of the noise that excites our headlines today will be replaced by entirely other static eighteen months hence, and that the U.S. election of 2012 will be decided on issues entirely beneath the radar of all prominent pundits today.
I could suggest half a dozen such developing clamant exigencies, but in the spirit of starting a conversation, I'll just open the floor to considered forecasts, off the cuff predictions, and wild speculations.
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Apr '11
Re: The Summer of 2001
Some suggestions:
Of these, 1 or 2 seem to be the most likely to happen, while 3 and 4 are pretty ridiculous. Of course, the point of unexpected is that no one sees it coming, so if it happens it will probably be something totally different.
Edited on Jun 8, 2011 at 6:54pmAug '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
You're right, and I liken this period to the late 1930's, just before the Second World War. All the signs are popping up around us, but people don't want to face it.
1) I think there's a high probability that Israel is going to be attacked, probably by flotillas and mobs, which can be made to appear non-threatening. It will be portrayed in the Regime Media as "peaceful".
2) The Egyptians may cut access to the Suez canal, which will ruin European trade; at which time the IslamoNazis will demand concessions. Not defending or assisting Israel could be one.
3) World market crashes. There's a slowdown going on globally, and it's likely to escalate severely.
Jul '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
Let me, respectfully, disagree.
I think the primary concerns of the moment: unemployment, a difficult, unclear mission in Afghanistan, ultra-complicated, contentious matters like health care, energy costs, & budgetary insolvency are likely to drive the election.
Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps American voters will get worked up by the MB in Egypt, or Assad's totalitarian crackdown.
It could be that the Norks will accidentally (or intentionally) hit Japan with a missile. Maybe the Japanese will muscle-up in anticipation of -or in response to- the Norks. But I doubt it.
'Course, I don't know what will happen. But, my best guess says that the candidate that is most generally perceived as trustworthy will win the day.
Oct '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
Unexpected factors that could occur: collapse of the European Union (and the Euro), ethnic cleansing and/or a return to fascism in Europe,a major attack against Israel and a worsening of the US recession.
I'm guessing that the Supreme Court will overturn Obamacare, thereby taking it off the table as an election issue. Someone, a cartoonist of the early 20th century I think, said that the country may not follow the flag, but the Supreme Court always follows the election results.
May '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
China's economy is not nearly as healthy as it appears: most especially, they have a centrally planned real estate bubble, the popping of which they are desperately trying to avert.That pop would be brutal for the world economy and could set some pretty awful dominoes in motion.
Dec '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
Ahhh, the Summer of 2001. A friend and I were working on a project at a port facility that had us in close contact with the water, all summer. As the summer waned, my buddy (knowing I was a Marine Biology type), asked, "What is it with all these shark attacks this year?" He had reason to be concerned, as it was everywhere, especially here in Florida; newspapers, radio, TV news. I let him know that I had looked at the numbers and there was nothing special about that year with respect to shark attacks; it was just an average number of very rare occurences. I told him to just watch; the moment something actually newsworthy occured, we wouldn't hear another word about sharks. Then we left the jobsite to go to a hardware store and another customer ran in, saying, "Turn on the TV! Somebody flew a plane into the World Trade Center!"
I think the 2012 election, as with most others, will turn on domestic issues. Neither foreign disasters nor domestic terrorism will be as politically important as an apparent ability to lead the country towards solutions. Finances, energy, and self-sufficiency will be more critical.
Re: The Summer of 2001
John, this is a lovely, thoughtful, well-written, even haunting piece. My guess is that the next election will turn on the economy, but you are right to remind us that politics is driven by events and that an administration in Washington that gives every appearance of being weak and feckless is an invitation to trouble in the international sphere.
Jun '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
When so many people are lying to us, it's a bad sign. Average people know that much.
Mar '11
Re: The Summer of 2001
I think it will finally sink in with people that the economy is in terrible shape and is not going to get better. My prediction is major domestic social unrest. (Or not.)
Apr '11
Re: The Summer of 2001
Any time it's calm, I suspect it's the calm before the storm. Then, when it is I'm prepared, and when it isn't, I'm pleasantly surprised.
Dec '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
The global struggle to recover from Sun-activity damage to certain electrical grids trumps all other issues. North America lucks out positionally and is less affected than Europe, the Middle East and South Asia. World wide fear of more to come. Related end of days hysteria. Money and banking disrupted owing to failure of certain satellites and complex computer systems. Discredited political/opinion leadership will be largely powerless to actually lead. Normal electioneering will seem largely irrelevant under the circumstances and communication will be hampered.
Worse yet, the political resurrection of Anthony Weiner continues and his campaign for President under the cleverly marketed "Pants Down Democrat" banner is gaining considerable thrust.
Or not.
Sep '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
Didn't that bald-headed Cajun guy hint at this within the last couple of weeks? And the prototests in Madison seemed close to going over the edge. And the beneficiaries of the left's largesse seem unusually riled when calling in on C-SPAN's Washington Journal.
Sep '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
I worry that we are woefully unprepared for a prolonged disruption of oil supplies from unfriendly parts of the world, which is not much of a stretch given Middle East unrest. By unprepared I mean resource-wise, infrastructure-wise, and even intellectually. Even if drilling rigs were available, I wonder if we could change regulations rapidly enough. And even if we were able to solve our own internal problems, Europe, Japan and China would be in deep doo which, in the globalised economy, would be bad for us.
Mar '11
Re: The Summer of 2001
I've been trying to figure out elections since 1952, It is my observation that "issues" are not nearly as important as most would have you believe. Almost all national elections I've seen were "mood" elections. The mood this time is "things aren't working, throw the bums out". This is what happened in 2006 and 2008 when the Dems made historically rare gains. It continued in 2010 when the Reps made the largest gains in 70 years. The people did not change their "philosophies" one whit - they want competence and stability. Bye, bye Barry and friends. The issues won't matter.
Jul '10
Re: The Summer of 2001
The economy in conjunction with the aforementioned Iran bruhaha, and the Russian Afghan excursion all folded in on Jimmy Carter in a vortex. Crises tend to focus the electorate on a leader's inability to address them.
It does seem that we are ignoring the imminent again... Feels ooggie.