The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
David Frum has put forth an arresting theory about what's happening in the race for the Republican nomination. Pence, Huckabee, Trump, and Rubio, he observes, are all out. "Palin too damaged. Bachmann too far-fetched. Ron Paul too sinister. Gingrich experimenting with 'moderation.' Romney’s conservative credentials revoked by the Wall Street Journal and National Review." The lesson?
It’s not just the potential Republican field that is thinning out. It is the once-crowded conservative portion of that field. Of the remaining major candidates, only one – Pawlenty – is positioning himself as a Tea Party style Republican. Romney, Huntsman, and Daniels (if the latter two do decide to run) are positioned as “Main Street Republicans” in the Pew taxonomy: conservative yes, but governance minded rather than protest minded. The winnowing of the conservative field sets up a potentially fascinating test of strength, and raises the question: have conservative pundits fallen victim to their own myth-making?
An important question, to be sure, but the answer isn't what's implied. Rubio, like Christie, is too fresh a face to mount a run (at least this early), and both know it. Pence and Bachmann face the same trouble every person faces who tries to mount a run from the House. But look at the others. Huckabee, Trump, Paul, and, yes, even Palin are all out of serious contention for one and the same reason: they lack adequate support among conservatives.
Conservatives are pushing Gingrich out of the race. Conservatives are hardening an irreversible judgment against Romney. Whether Huntsman, Pawlenty, or (our own) Mitch Daniels rises to the top of the heap is dependent on whether they can pass the Tea Party smell test and gain the confidence of conservatives.
And only the excitement of conservatives -- as Herman Cain is showing -- will propel any of the 'minor' candidates out to the front of the pack. A 'more mainstream' Republican field? Sure -- mainstream conservative, that is.
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Apr '11
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
Ron Paul is too sinister? I don't see that one. Of course, my relatives think I'm joking when I say I found Dick Cheney lovable.
Sep '10
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
In Frum's lexicon, "conservative" is a synonym for "Christian" as well as "countrified." He often misconstrues what he sees, in my opinion, because he's blinded by the rocket flares from his own culture wars.
Mar '11
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
James Poulos:
And only the excitement of conservatives -- as Herman Cain is showing -- will propel any of the 'minor' candidates out to the front of the pack. A 'more mainstream' Republican field? Sure -- mainstream conservative, that is. ·
I agree - what is happening is the Tea Party asserting itself over the Republican Elites.
As mentioned, Sarah Palin has been effectively damaged - but, not fatally. Michelle Bachmann will be effectively damaged. Newt and Mitt have damaged themselves. Mitch is still deciding whether he wants his wife to be damaged. Dunno about Pawlenty and Santorum - both fine guys, but I can't see their momentum building.
This leaves Herman Cain - no doubt he will be given the Clarence Thomas treatment but, if he gets through that, he will be the Tea Party favorite. Well, he maybe already is.
Because he loves moats with alligators ...
Oct '10
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
Eh, I fear we are going the way of the McGovernites. Vetting candidates for conservative values is one thing; vetting based on a populist smell test is another. We don't need uber-moderates like Romney, I agree; that doesn't mean uber-populist right-wingers can win (have they ever?).
What we need is that rare combination of moderation with a respect to conservative principles, and reliance on conservative advisors to restrain the idealism us moderates are prone to. Another Reagan, as opposed to a Romney.
Edited on May 17, 2011 at 3:14pmApr '11
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
Two points:
1. Where are the major league conservatives in the top tier of the primaries? It's been 16 years since the 1994 revolution. One would think that more small government conservatives would have come up through the ranks. It's not like it is 1996 where the shifting political trends had gotten ahead of the more experience candidates.
2. One of the reasons for the Tea Party's success in 2010 was because the activists took matters into their own hands. It did not originate from the political class. And now it is 2011 and we sitting back waiting for politicians to announce whether they are going to come and save us. I'm not sure there is any good way around this, aside from drafting people. But sitting around and waiting for other people to make decisions leaves us with the choices we deserve.
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
David Frum demonstrated his lack of judgment in 2008. Why would any conservatives listen to him now?
May '10
Re: The Shrinking GOP Field: More Mainstream -- and More Conservative?
Well, I read Frum periodically to be sure that I am not stuck in my own echo chamber, and also because he is sometimes right- more often than twice a day.
I love Herman Cain, but it is quite obvious why he is being put forward so enthusiastically: he can call Obama an idiot without being branded as racist, the obvious reason Daniels brought up Rice.
If the Left started seriously talking about nominating, say, Derek Bok right after he recovered from cancer surgery, we would list most of the same non-ideological objections as the other side would use against the fine Mr. Cain. He should be Secretary of Commerce or Treasury, not president.