The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
I mentioned in my post diagnosing the South Carolina primary yesterday that one of two scenarios is likely to emerge in the Palmetto State: (1) a split in the conservative vote that paves the way for a Romney win that will all but settle the nomination fight or (2) a situation in which either Gingrich or Santorum makes a strong showing and turns this into a head-to-head competition. Well, there's a new Insider Advantage poll out of South Carolina today (it's the first new polling out of the state since last week). The results: Romney 23, Gingrich 21 -- within the margin of error.
Here's my humble suggestion for Newt: stick with the attacks on Romney's time at Bain, but change the focus so that you're less susceptible to charges that you're attacking the entire capitalist endeavor. Free market types will be none too happy if they start to learn about the fact that Bain stuck the federal Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation with the bill for retirement shortfalls at a Kansas City steel mill, that the mill successfully petitioned for trade barriers against international competitors, and that it entered a federal loan guarantee program (all of which is detailed here). Arguments about 'predatory' capitalists are going to have a relatively low ceiling with a conservative electorate. Arguments about crony capitalism, however, fit nicely into the broad thrust of the Tea Party's arguments over the past few years.
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Sep '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Newt's task is simple, which is why I fear he'll mess it up:
Punch early, punch hard, punch often and punch straight. If Romney goes down, he wasn't the right candidate. If he stands up and wins, you made him a better candidate and helped ensure victory in November: surely a worthy goal for any American.
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Pseud, you have a gift for distilling an essay's worth of thought into one peerlessly concise formulation.
Pseudodionysius: Newt's task is simple, which is why I fear he'll mess it up:
Jan 12 at 10:21am
May '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Troy Senik, Ed.
I mentioned in my post diagnosing the South Carolina primary yesterday that one of two scenarios is likely to emerge in the Palmetto State: (1) a split in the conservative vote that paves the way for a Romney win that will all but settle the nomination fight....
See Katie's post on Republican nomination history.
If Perry, Santorum or Newt drops out, the others will have a chance.
Sep '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Troy Senik, Ed.: Pseud, you have a gift for distilling an essay's worth of thought into one peerlessly concise formulation.
Pseudodionysius: Newt's task is simple, which is why I fear he'll mess it up:
Jan 12 at 10:21am
Jan 12 at 10:23am
Believe me: its a cross to bear when you try and charge clients by the word.
Dec '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Kevin Williamson deals some with the bailout issues here. But, yes, let's actually have a race in this primary.
Aug '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Mar '11
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Kevin Williamson, no fan of Romney, has a pretty persuasive response to Gingrich's Bain attack in his article at NRO today.
Edit: I hadn't noticed the previous reference to this article by King Prawn.
Edited on Jan 12 at 11:21amJun '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Misthiocracy · Jan 12 at 11:18am
About as proper, three years into one's presidency, to blame all current problems on the prior administration. In other words, not proper at all.
Jun '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
The current tax code is riddled with loopholes and overly generous deductions, I support replacing it with a flat tax. But until that happens, I feel no shame in claiming whatever deductions I can under the current code.
Along the same lines, if the government is handing out cash under some pension insurance or bailout or stimulus plan, I tend to think a company's management has a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to claim as much of it as they legally can.
This is also where I disagree with the OWS crowd. Did Wall Street profit from bad laws that allowed them to take risks where they pocket the gains but taxpayers are on the hook for the losses? Yes, absolutely. But I don't blame Wall Street's "greed," I blame Washington's stupidity.
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
I completely agree with Williamson's case regarding the FDIC (I think that would be an inert argument anyway). I think it's a little less persuasive with regard to the PBGC. Romney may have been gone by the time the pensions had to be shored up, but he had still been heading the company for the vast majority of the period that Bain had owned the mill (when they had been hitting the firm with $900,000 a year in consulting fees). And he was still taking dividends from Bain as they were making a profit off the mill while the pensions had to be backstopped. It is a huge indictment? No. But it's a question that deserves more consideration than some of these absurdities about job losses.
Sep '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
While at Bain Romney did several deals in which he took profitable companies, plundered them and then closed then. What he did may be good for the economy as a whole, but most people will think the workers at these companies got shafted. Buzzards are good for the environment, but you don't nominated them for President. When these deals are looked at closely Romney will find it difficult to justify what he did. Ichan and others where engaged in similar practices. Nothing illegal was done, but people who engage in this type of activity probably should not expect to campaign as job creators and be taken seriously. If the GOP nominates this guy they may well lose control of the house again.
Dec '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
We need to have the evaluation of his time at Bain, but we surely don't need some of the hyperbolic accusations that are going on. On balance, Bain probably wasn't that bad. If Romney's faith advises his whole life as I believe it does, then his leadership at Bain probably kept the company on the side of the angels more often than not. Yes, he made the company and its investors a lot of money, but I don't think he encouraged a "by any means necessary" policy.
Dec '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Aaron Miller
If Perry, Santorum or Newt drops out, the others will have a chance. · Jan 12 at 10:38am
I'm not sure whether Perry dropping out will make much difference. He is increasingly irrelevant to this campaign.
I note that Huntsman is trending up to overtake Perry for fifth place in the polling. It will be interesting to see if he actually gains momentum or recedes back to irrelevance as the voters in SC become more familiar with him.
May '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
If anyone commenting works in private equity I'd love to get an insiders first hand perspective. I have a good friend in private equity and my impression from a short distance is they don't really create jobs but they may add to increases in productivity and the overall wealth in the economy. My impression is that they purchase business on the down swing, cut the fat, try to make them profitable and sell for a profit. That may involve growing the business but that doesn't seem to be nature of most private "turn around" equity -- but it does extract economic value from something that otherwise might have died. This seems to me to be a far cry from "entrepeneurialism" which I take to be Jeff Bezos creating Amazon.com out of whole cloth in his garage. Bill gates and Microsoft, Apple, Intel, even small firm lawyers like myself growing a practice and adding lawyers -- the benefit of more lawyers is certainly open for debate and I wouldn't fight too hard with anyone who felt that one should be carved out of my list. Newt looks like he's channeling Axelrod capping how much one can earn.
Jul '11
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Newt should exorcise Axelrod, hippo.....phobia. The spirit is an evil one.
By all means let's have this race.
Sep '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
hippopotomonstrosesquipedaliophobia
Best Ricochet name evah.
Jun '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Romney got in trouble recently for saying (in a quote taken out of context) that he liked to fire people. I actually want a president who likes to fire people, I want him to move into the White House and start firing federal bureaucrats left and right.
Apr '11
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
during a time of such danger in the world and obama's shameful class warfare...out of control spending and creation of a welfare state it is a disgrace to hear the arguments in the GOP primary debates be directed toward Romney's bain capital days...for crying out loud we dont need 2 liberal parties and this kind of thing just legitimizes the coming attacks from the left...there are plenty of things to attack Romney about that are legitimate...the bain stuff is simply the work of increasingly desperate and pathetic candidates who see the race slipping away....lets stop it now or else help to re-elect the awful barack obama
Edited on Jan 12 at 1:04pmAug '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Newt's lies are making him pretty close to toxic in the GOP.
No way he gets the nomination.
Aug '10
Re: The (Second) Second Coming of Newt?
Frozen Chosen: Newt's lies are making him pretty close to toxic in the GOP.
No way he gets the nomination.
I've been giving Newt the benefit of the doubt, but that link has some pretty damning stuff.