The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Romney, I argue below, has lately been watching good pitches whistle past--and, as James of England noted yesterday, Nate Silver of the New York Times now offers odds against a Romney victory of roughly two to one, worse than the odds Silver calculated just a week or so ago.
And yet...and yet....
From our own Ben Domenech in today's "Transom":
...Team Romney views him [Mitt] as a single-minded economic Mister Fix-It, and they’ve always planned on a 2004-like slug it out in the swing states campaign....Is the strategy working? Republicans seem to think it isn’t. But considering they’re basically a coin-flip away now from beating a president with a solid floor of support, despite the fact that no one really likes their candidate, isn’t that about as good as it could be at this point?
Ben has an argument.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Since Obama's campaign strategy has been, and will be, to change the subject (away from the economy) at every turn, maybe it's best to just never take the bait. If you don't leave the economy trail, you can't get lost.
Dec '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Yikes.
Peter, you do understand that the rest of this country is in deep trouble, at this point, and sees nothing good on the horizon?
Anectdotaly, I have spent everything, trying to hold on. I have hauled trailer-loads of metal to recycling centers, treasured chrome, brass, and aluminum artifacts, things I have accumulated over decades.
My hauls are all gone, in perpetuity. They're gone and melted. Classic materials from centuries past.
Everything, but two lights from the Art Deco period.
They are worth hundreds as art, or $4 a pound as scrap.
Everything. It's all gone.
I used to have one of the greatest collections of Art Deco lighting fixtures there ever was, hidden out back.
I used to save people's light fixtures, before they got thrown in dumpsters.
My efforts have dissipated to the point where I have had to watch employees run files over fantastic light fixtures, destroying them, to check for brass beneath the designs.
I have been a poor steward of these treasures, because we refuse to climb out of this funk.
Nothing I allowed to be destroyed is anything I didn't save from a dumpster, but it hurt.
Deeply.
Dec '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
I just want to say this.
I don't care how broke we get.
I have a Mission era lamp and the last piece from a Matthews I had to salvage, a chromed brass white lamp, that I consder priceless.
They are the best pieces of a proud and defiant 1930s that I have left.
It's something. After trailer-loads, it's all I have left, until this country changes course.
I will not cross the line that the last of my cherished lamps from the previous century are worth nothing but 4$ a pound as salvage brass and chrome. Plus, the rest of my unsold stuff is bedrrom furniture, scattered about the house, that nobody realizes may have value.
That's it. Everything I own is somebody's bed, or lamp. Nothing left to sell.
Dec '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Ben has an argument.
· · 53 minutes ago
Wow, Peter. There's a battle cry to rival San Juan Hill or Iwo Jima. I will be the first to crawl over the proverbial broken glass to vote against that Marxist Moron currently occupying the White House. But, why, why, why in the name of all that's holy did we have to choose such a robotic, charismatically challenged tool to lead our troops? ("It's a mandate or penalty or something...isn't it? No? It's a tax? But that's not what we called it in Massachusetts. Help me out here, fellas...isn't this why I pay you guys the big bucks?")
Pathetic.
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Peter, politics is not just or even primarily about technical fixes to problems. There is more to the discontent with Obama than his managerial incompetence. He is committed to something ugly and profoundly unjust.
Witness the attack on the Catholic Church. Witness Acorn. Witness the Occupy Movement. Witness the defrauding of GM bondholders. Witness the commitment to crony capitalism. Witness his contempt for the private sector. Witness his dislike of white working stiffs.
Mr. Fix-It, insofar as he remains Mr. Fix-It, cannot address these questions, cannot see the connections between them. Politics always has a moral dimension. Absent that, a candidate will not generate enthusiasm; and, if elected, he will fail in office.
If Mitt Romney does not transcend the limits of the business mentality, he will end up replicating Herbert Hoover.
Apr '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Ben's is in part a Pauline Kael argument, though. Mitt's had plenty of volunteers working the phones, donating, and putting their backs into his campaign from the start. What challenger to an incumbent has ever been better than a coin flip in July?
Things which will get better: so far Obama's spent a lot more money on Obama-Romney than Romney has, which will change; the Olympics should highlight Mitt's transformative abilities; we'll get more info out of Fast and Furious, and Mitt's VP will run with the issue hard; more Catholics will explicitly make the connection between Mitt's stellar record on religious liberty, Obama's recreation of Antiochus' policies, and volunteering for some more secular forms of action than prayer (as a supplement); we'll get some properly ugly anti-LDS bigotry to ride the backlash of; we'll have a divided DNC, with Blue Dog no-shows emphasizing the bipartisan repudiation of Obama's sick ideology; the fruits of the volunteer calling now will be felt in micro targeting nearer the election; the Washington Post's string of effective, deeply researched, and openly misleading hit pieces will come to an end.
Apr '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Politics is not just about the technical fixes, but the technical fixes and the details matter.
Reagan was the master of the moral dimension, but he had a much more mixed record on the technical fix side. He tried to reduce the SSDI rolls and saw them dramatically expand, to eliminate the DofEd with similar (although less drastically bad) results, to cut spending, to enforce immigration laws.... Since then, there's been talk of Democrats always defeating Republicans on grand compromises, but both Bushes were able to get what they wanted from the Dems in their grand compromises (spending cuts and freedom for state welfare reform for 41, NCLB, PEPFAR, the surge, and amnesty for 43, although he couldn't bring his own party with him on the last bit).
I'm not saying first principles don't matter, and I agree that first principles (chiefly immigration, religious liberty, and guns) are likely to be what wins us this, but different Presidents face different calamitous threats, and today's threat is complicated.
Apr '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Paul A. Rahe:
If Mitt Romney does not transcend the limits of the business mentality, he will end up replicating Herbert Hoover. · 18 minutes ago
This is what I mean: Not all businessmen are big government interventionists and your repeated slanders against capitalists are the last bastion of your mostly vanished overstatements. Calvin Coolidge was a corporate attorney (I always like to say "like me" at this point, as it is the only quality I can claim to have in common with the great man) before he became Governor of Massachusetts. Andrew Mellon wasn't picked to be Harding's secretary because of Mellon's lack of strong views or to provide left wing balance; he was picked because he was a businessman with strong moral convictions and great talent.
Jun '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Why did Santorum go down in flames? He took the bait. He apparently didn't know that it was bait. He thought it was just an expansion of the policy discussion. It wasn't. The social issues were there to make him step on the wire, and in perfect cinematic slow motion...he was gone.
Aug '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
We are so doomed.
May '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
If Mitt's a Mr. Fixit, then so be it -- he should be a Mr. Fixit. Seeming insincerety has always been his problem, so he should go all-in on being himself. Period. He also happens to be a good and decent man, a fact which, eventually, will become apparent -- perhaps as late as the convention when team Mitt will finally have a forum to introduce its candidate without media distortions. In fact, the revelation "Hey, this Mitt's a compassionate and caring husband, father, and friend -- not at all what we've been led to believe" could be this year's October surprise and the very thing that pushes him over the goal line.
Aug '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
EDIT: Never mind. I am in a funk.
Edited on July 6, 2012 at 4:10amNov '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
"Repeal and Replace" is the greatest political RopeADope since Nixon's secret plan to end the war.
No one, not Romney himself, can explain how exactly Romneycare differs from Obamacare. Instead, we hear fluffy talk about "free market-oriented solutions."
Who will say the truth? The only real solution is to get the federal government out of the business of healthcare because healthcare is not a proper subject for general federal intervention.
The national addiction (of which the perceived "right" to healthcare is a mild symptom) might be better managed by Romney, but after four Romney years we would be no closer to sobriety.
This spendaholic nation must hit bottom . . . . . the sooner, the better. By the time we hit bottom, it might already be too late. But four more years of Obama will get us there faster.
To those hollering, "judicial appointments," two words: John Roberts. Two more words: David Souter. Three more words, Sandra Day O'Connor. What's needed is a President (and a Congress) with principles and backbone to stand up to the Supreme Court. Romney has neither.
Four Romney years will ruin the reputation of conservatives, and prepare the people more perfectly for the progressive thrall.
Edited on July 6, 2012 at 4:38amApr '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Astonishing: "Repeal and Replace" is the greatest political RopeADope since Nixon's secret plan to end the war.
No one, not Romney himself, can explain how exactly Romneycare differs from Obamacare. Instead, we hear fluffy talk about "free market-oriented solutions."
Who will say the truth? Theonlyreal solution is to get the federal governmentoutof the business of healthcare because healthcare is nota proper subject for general federal intervention.
I'm not sure if you think that "Romneycare" is what Romney's running on. If so, I imagine you'll have a very pleasant surprise when you look through the contents of his proposed reforms, and the Ryan Plan.
Both work to do exactly what you say is needed; reduce federal involvement in healthcare.
If Romneycare as history is what bothers you, it may help to focus on differences that Romney frequently mentions; no 2700 pages of legislation + more of regulations, no takeover of the sector, no HHS mandate. It was a much shorter bill (although they found space to explicitly protect religious freedom). The pre-existing condition coverage, community rating and the other market distorting stuff pre-dated Romney in Massachusetts. Oh, and constitutionality/ federalism.
Apr '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Astonishing:
The national addiction (of which the perceived "right" to healthcare is a mild symptom) might be better managed by Romney, but after four Romney years we would be no closer to sobriety.
Do you mean that Obamacare would not be repealed and spending would not be down? Evidence?
I've spent time in countries that suffered ruin. "Hitting bottom" just doesn't work as an incentive to develop sound political views. North Korea won't become America if they get just a little bit poorer. Destroying the greatest nation on earth in order to maybe create something better is less helpful than you might think.
I agree that Romney's principles are not those required to attack the rule of Law, FDRishly, but do not agree with the implication that Roberts is no better than Kagan.
Mar '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
The campaign has not yet begun. It used to begin after the World Series but that went bye the bye with the extended playoffs. Only nuts like us are paying attention now. Late September, early October is when the independents and undecideds become interested.
There's lots to be said for hiding your hole cards and hoarding the bucks until then. Any statements or positions stated now are fodder for the other guy's campaign.
Lest we forget, Reagan was behind Carter in the polls until the day before the election. It was a landslide. The mood of the country, as I see it, is almost exactly like 1980.
May '10
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
Note also that the very best way to get the federal gov't out of healthcare is to get Americans to look to their state capitols for action, not DC. THAT is the essential difference between Romneycare and Obamacare. Recall that the crazy liberals in Mass. very nearly killed Obamacare by bringing us Scott Brown, a man who voted for Romneycare but vowed to destroy the DC plan.
Nov '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
James Of England
Astonishing: "Repeal and Replace" is the greatest political RopeADope since Nixon's secret plan to end the war.
No one, not Romney himself, can explain how exactly Romneycare differs from Obamacare. Instead, we hear fluffy talk about "free market-oriented solutions."
Who will say the truth? Theonlyreal solution is to get the federal governmentoutof the business of healthcare because healthcare is nota proper subject for general federal intervention.
. . . you'll have a very pleasant surprise when you look through the contents of his proposed reforms . . . .
Especially on the pesky details, Romney's "proposed reforms" are pumped full of vague hot air ("public-private partnerships, exchanges, and subsidies . . . high-risk pools, reinsurance, and risk adjustment . . . Prevent discrimination against individuals with pre-existing conditions. . . Promote co-insurance products . . . Promote alternatives to fee for service"), but are nonetheless recognizable as the usual manifold manipulations from on high.
But even if we could pretend Romney is not saying what he is saying, why should we believe anything the man says, when over and over and over, and once again, he proves he will say whatever seems convenient?
Nov '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
James Of England
Astonishing:
The national addiction (of which the perceived "right" to healthcare is a mild symptom) might be better managed by Romney, but after four Romney years we would be no closer to sobriety.
Do you mean that Obamacare would not be repealed and spending would not be down? Evidence?
I mean what I said. Yes, Romney might do a better job of managing the addiction. Yes, Romney might get spending down for a little while. (It's almost difficult to spend at the rate Obama has spent.) But whether Obamacare is repealed in toto (an unlikely possibility) or replaced in whole or part by some tricked-up version of Romneycare (a more likely possibility) is irrelevant since in ten years you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between Obamacare and Romneycare twopointuhoh.
Nov '11
Re: The Romney Campaign: As Good as it Could Be
James Of England
Astonishing:
This spendaholic nation [emphasis added] must hit bottom . . . . . the sooner, the better. By the time we hit bottom, it might already be too late.
I've spent time in countries that suffered ruin. "Hitting bottom" just doesn't work as an incentive to develop sound political views. North Korea won't become America if they get just a little bit poorer. Destroying the greatest nation on earth in order to maybe create something better is less helpful than you might think.
Switching from Obama to Romney is like going from whiskey to beer.
If this nation is destroyed, it won't be me who destroyed it. That blame will belong to those doing the drinking, those providing the whiskey, and those who say that things willl improve if we can keep the drunk on his feet and make him satisifed with beer in the evening instead of whiskey in the morning.
Your North Korean example is actually quite instructive: A decade of Western enablement brought the North Korean people and the entire world to the brink of disaster. It surely would have been better all around to have allowed that regime to hit bottom in 1995.