The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Over at NationalJournal.com, former Bush 43 and Schwarzenegger advisor Matthew Dowd describes the three factors that, in his estimation, could do in Barack Obama in 2012: a poor economy, continued overseas crises, and a charismatic Republican challenger.
There’s a fourth variable – the ever-changing nature of the presidency (it changed under Hoover in 1932, Carter in 1980, and Bush 41 in 1992) – but that’s another discussion for another day.
But rather than waste your time speculating on the circumstances involved in unseating an incumbent president – good luck predicting this nation’s health and other nations’ mischief 19 months from now – I’d like you to engage in something far more empirical: presidential mathematics.
Specifically, I want you to go to this site – www.270towin.com – and chart the Republicans’ most efficient path to 270 electoral votes.
Setting the interactive map to 2012 numbers (remember, we’ve had a census since the last election, so the 2008 numbers no longer apply), start with Obama carrying the same states as last time. That translates to 359 electoral votes for the president (down from 365 in 2008), and 179 for the generic Republican.
I’ve been tinkering with the map, figuring how and where to turn blue states red, and here’s my scenario for a GOP win in 2012:
First, I believe Obama loses three states on the natural: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. Obama carried the Hoosier State by less than 1% in 2008 (while incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels was re-elected in a landslide). As for Virginia and North Carolina, Obama will be hard-pressed to win back 2008’s benefit-of-the-doubt independents since disillusioned by deficit spending, healthcare and an unsteady presidential demeanor.
Subtract those three states and their combined 39 electoral votes and it’s now Obama 320, Republican 218.
Now, take a look at the rest of the country, and tell me where the GOP finds another 52 electoral votes.
I see three opportunities:
The Western trio of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. A total of 20 electoral votes.
The Upper Midwest semi-circle of (moving clockwise) Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. A total of 50 electoral votes.
Florida. 29 electoral votes.
What this tells me is there’s a decidedly pragmatic choice for the next GOP ticket. And that would be Mitch Daniels as the presidential nominee, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate (and, to answer your first question: no, I’m not on either gentleman’s payroll).
Why is Daniels-Rubio a pragmatic choice? Again, take a look at the 270towin.com map. Directly in the middle of the Midwestern semi-circle of swing states is . . . Indiana. As for Florida and its potential influence on national elections, enough said.
Of course, this scenario might not play out if Daniels opts not to run. And the idea of a first-term senator elevated to national office? It could never happen in this day and age (he said, sarcastically, thinking back to 2008).
So please, go ahead and fiddle with the map. Reshuffle the electoral deck. And, if you come up with a better, easier scenario, by all means share it with us.
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Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Brian Watt
Elizabeth Dunn
Brian- But of course, it applies. Certainly, Al Gore (tho it pains me to admit this) and the venerable Dick Cheney contributed an added value to the VP position. The biggest concern about Palin in 2008 (shared by both parties, I may add ) was God Forbid McCain Dies and Leaves Palin in Charge.
I believe Republican voters, and rightfully so, look to the VP to stand as a person of experience, gravitas and a defender of our national security. · Apr 1 at 4:37pm
Edited on Apr 01 at 04:38 pm
Yeah, well many VPs didn't have foreign policy experience but relied on their reserve of history and common sense or the examples of their predecessors - Truman, TR, Coolidge, Nixon (for all his other issues - he was rather astute in foreign policy). I have absolutely no doubt that Rubio in the VP position will comport himself most adequately and be able to contribute a considerable deal to the office. · Apr 1 at 5:06pm
I also believe that if it came to assuming the Presidency that Rubio would be a more thoughtful and cooler head than say John McCain.
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Brian, Here's the rub...
Marco doesn't think it's in the best interests of his state or country for him to do anything in 2012 but focus on his senatorial responsibilities.
As a donor, supporter, fan and Florida voter, I choose to take him at his word.
Jul '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
David Williamson:
I know this is sacrilege @ Ricochet, but I am not inspired by Mitch Daniels, and think he has no chance of beating our current smart-creased P, no matter which fancy website says so.
You're obviously new here. There have been numerous pitched battles about Mitch Daniels on Ricochet.
Even Professor Paul Rahe, that most courtly of gentlemen, slapped Governor Daniels silly in a post which promptly became a bar brawl.
Edited on Apr 1, 2011 at 6:20pmJun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn: Brian, Here's the rub...
Marco doesn't think it's in the best interests of his state or country for him to do anything in 2012 but focus on his senatorial responsibilities.
As a donor, supporter, fan and Florida voter, I choose to take him at his word. · Apr 1 at 5:46pm
Good for you...but a lot can change in 14 months including the good Senator's stated position - the reasons for which I already articulated. Keep in mind if Republicans don't win - and depending on circumstances at the time of the election - is a very possible outcome given the power of incumbency - Rubio still retains his Senate seat and the experience of presenting himself as the next logical Republican standard bearer...so by the time 2016 rolls around the American people at large already know him and where he stands on numerous positions. So, even if he loses...he essentially wins...in that he doesn't have to spend a lot of time and effort proving to America who he is. All I'm saying is don't be surprised if his position changes. This is politics we're discussing after all.
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Kenneth
David Williamson:
I know this is sacrilege @ Ricochet, but I am not inspired by Mitch Daniels, and think he has no chance of beating our current smart-creased P, no matter which fancy website says so.
You're obviously new here. There have been numerous pitched battles about Mitch Daniels on Ricochet.
Even Professor Paul Rahe, that most courtly of gentlemen, slapped Governor Daniels silly in a post which promptly became a bar brawl. · Apr 1 at 6:19pm
Edited on Apr 01 at 06:20 pm
Yeah, watch yer step thar, Tenderfoot. There's a passel o' ornery cowpokes just lookin' to start somethin'. I just sent a boy to git the sheriff.
Jul '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Brian Watt
Kenneth
David Williamson:
I know this is sacrilege @ Ricochet, but I am not inspired by Mitch Daniels, and think he has no chance of beating our current smart-creased P, no matter which fancy website says so.
You're obviously new here. There have been numerous pitched battles about Mitch Daniels on Ricochet.
Even Professor Paul Rahe, that most courtly of gentlemen, slapped Governor Daniels silly in a post which promptly became a bar brawl. · Apr 1 at 6:19pm
Edited on Apr 01 at 06:20 pm
Yeah, watch yer step thar, Tenderfoot. There's a passel o' ornery cowpokes just lookin' to start somethin'. I just sent a boy to git the sheriff. · Apr 1 at 6:35pm
The eds do a wonderful job policing this place.
Having written that -just for you Sajak- I nominate Tuscarora Jack and his 36 square foot avatar for Ricoshirereeve.
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
One last comment on this issue because it's one that reads close to my heart and home...
Quote from the Shark Tank- a Cuban/conservative Republican web site based in Miami- explaining the political complexity of a Rubio presidential campaign:
Because he’s “hispanic” he will be seen as a saviour to the Republicans who want that hispanic vote, but they are not going to get it with a Cuban in office. They (Cubans) are envied, for the most part, for their accomplishments and Americans don’t seem to understand.
In other words, let's not assume all Hispanics vote alike...
Oct '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
If Trump jumps into the GOP primaries, it might scare off daniels from joining the prez race.
But I believe either Daniels or Pawlenty can beat obama. Or somebody who talks like Trump (Chris Christie, Rudy Giuliani). There's a leadership deficit in the White House and Christie or Rudy can fill that void.
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
May I compliment you on your fine manners before I reiterate that the candidate in question has declared himself out of the competition. If you want to run for sumptin' on a large scale in 2012, your time is nearly up!
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn:
I do have a strategy for the 2012 race, but am still working on the nerve to post it. It will be an unpopular one here at Rico, to say the least... · Apr 1 at 2:54pm
Do it!
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn
May I compliment you on your fine manners before I reiterate that the candidate in question has declared himself out of the competition. If you want to run for sumptin' on a large scale in 2012, your time is nearly up! · Apr 1 at 7:13pm
Thank you, dear lady. Feelings mutual. But not to put too fine a point on it, the VP candidate typically doesn't start running until he or she is plucked from the masses by the hand of the anointed POTUS candidate. To wit, George H.W. Bush was sincerely surprised to be picked by Ronald Reagan given that he had been all snarky about what he called Reagan's "voodoo economics". The decision often comes as a shock to politicians just minding their own business...and sometimes a shock for the electorate at large once we find out who in the heck they settled on. Cheers.
Feb '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
The Republican ticket will flip IN, OH, VA, NC, FL, and NH from blue to red. That makes it an even 269 to 269. And out of IA, MN, WI, MI, NM, CO, and NV I gotta believe we will have more than enough to put us over the top.
Mar '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Kenneth,
Indeed I am new here, in paying for the coffee ( I prefer Americano, or Expresso) - but I have been a lurker on the podcasts for some time. I am glad that Mitch has been, um, criticized here.
I listened to him on Fox, and was struck by his hesitation, um, in running for POTUS. His words don't, um, flow... kinda like O, off the teleprompter.
And I am also awaiting Elizabeth's post on who she thinks in worthy - I am guessing Rubio? I am fine with that - he would wipe the One's clock, as would West. But they seem to think they are not ready... that's what I find a little frustrating. We have many good candidates - Ryan is another, fantastic, one... but he is rightly concerned that his family is not ready...
Feb '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
As long as Republicans think in terms of the small ball, Karl Rove electoral map politics, rather than a thematic, grind the Democrats into the dust they deserve to be ground into, then Obama is safe.
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
I'll bite, Bill. How did the presidency change under these three men?
Bill Whalen
There’s a fourth variable – the ever-changing nature of the presidency (it changed under Hoover in 1932, Carter in 1980, and Bush 41 in 1992) – but that’s another discussion for another day.
May '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Nickolas:
Reagan's majority conservative coalition was comprised of three main constituencies...
I think Daniels is a much more deliberate politician in that he doesn't seek to appeal to "constituencies" but rather to appeal to a vast majority on the major issue. We have no chance of really tackling entitlements, unless someone comes along and says "Okay, maybe we can't all agree on all things, but can we agree that we need to take hard, painful actions with regards to the nations fiscal mess?"
Many conservatives moan because of his truce and they want all drums beaten at all times. Daniels is a deliberate person. He didn't support right to work in Indiana, not because he was against it, but because it had not been presented in a winning way. That is who he is. He is a rock-ribbed conservative, but he knows how to get the REALLY big issue moving. The one that no one else has been able to touch. If our currency and financial system fall into ruin, good luck with those social issues.
Pick your battle and fight. Win that one, and they won't fight so hard on the next one.
May '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
And yes, Rubio might be the strategic guy. At this point I wonder if Mitch with have to pair up early with a more social conservative (like Rubio) in order to survive the primaries and all the conservatives that can't stand the idea of tackling one big thing at a time.
Mitch didn't call for a truce by Republicans by the way, he called for a truce by everyone while we face the wreck that could make all other issues moot.