The Rising Tide, Part Two
On Sunday, I drew attention to a survey done by Glenn Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies for the American Action Network, which showed that -- while the Republican advantage on the generic ballot was only 5% -- the party had an 18% advantage in the 66 House districts held by the Democrats and rated a toss-up by Charlie Cook at the time the poll was taken. I also noted that no pollster had foreseen Joe Miller’s defeat of Lisa Murkowski and Christine O’Donnell’s defeat of Mark Castle, and I suggested that the pollsters may be underestimating the conservative surge underway.
On Tuesday, I presented further evidence for the surge, noting that John Raese had opened up a modest lead in the West Virginia Senate race, and citing two polls – one showing Linda McMahon closing on Richard Blumenthal in the Connecticut Senate race, and another suggesting that Dino Rossi is about to overtake Patty Murray in the Senate race in the state of Washington.
This morning, Jay Cost provided even more evidence suggesting that things are not as they seem. In California, the CNN/Time poll has Barbara Boxer and Jerry Brown up 9% in their races against Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman. But the same poll has Fiorina up 14% among independents in a race in which 93% of Democrats and 92% of Republicans are inclined to stick with their respective party nominees. As Cost points out, in 2004, when John Kerry beat George W. Bush by 9%, he beat him among independents by 17%. What this suggests is that the CNN/Time poll is built on the presumption that the Democratic component of the California electorate in November will be considerably larger than it was in 2008, 2006, or 2004. If one recalculates that poll's data taking 2008 as a baseline, Boxer would be 6% ahead of Fiorina. If one uses 2006 as a baseline, she would be 1.5% ahead. If one bases one’s estimate on 2004, she would be only 1% ahead.
The line it is drawn/ The curse it is cast/ The slow one now/ Will later be fast/ As the present now/ Will later be past/ The order is/Rapidly fadin''/ And the first one now/ Will later be last/ For the times they are a-changin'.
It is too early to break out the champagne. But there is a case for laying some in.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
Forget the champagne...I'm expecting several cans of whoop-ass.
May '10
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
Get the message out. We can only assume the low-hanging fruit has already been picked. The on-the-fence voters, most of whom don't get their news and views from the Web, need to be reached.
Jun '10
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
Not being a drinker, I'm laying in a case of Red Bull.
Aug '10
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
This is huge... our nation's last, best hope. Everything hangs in the balance, and we need to tell everyone who'll listen that we need them to vote on November 2!
Sep '10
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
Clinton said "the era of big government is over." Bush and the GOP, not BO, proved him wrong. The best thing about GOP winning control is that we will have devided government once again. Reversing the trend toward ever more governement control would require making unpopular decisions and having the resolve shown by MT and RR to stick with them. I do not see enough adults in the current crop of GOPers to give me cause for much celebrating.
Re: The Rising Tide, Part Two
I very much doubt that divided government can produce the consequences that "liberal jim" has in mind. Among other things, Obamacare will not be repealed until the Republicans control all three branches of government. Keep in mind that it takes a 2/3 vote in both the Senate and the House to override a veto.