The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
Two notes that add up to a very big problem:
1.) Here's what the Republicans in Congress need to do, know they need to do, and, according to Speaker Boehner and his top lieutenants, including Paul Ryan and Eric Cantor, want to do: "They should start," as economist John Taylor writes in the Wall Street Journal this morning,
by laying out a credible plan to reduce spending and stop the debt explosion. If spending as a share of GDP can be brought to 2000 levels and held there with entitlement reforms, then the budget can be balanced without employment-retarding tax increases.
Cut spending. Cut, cut, cut. As Congressman Ryan said in his fine reply to the President's State of the Union Address, "Spending cuts must come first."
2.) Here's are the politics of what the Republicans in Congress need and want to do: "President Obama," to quote David Brooks's column in today's New York Times,
will emerge as the mature moderate while the Republicans will seem unstable and dangerous. He will talk about realistic concrete improvements, like higher teacher salaries, while the Republicans will talk of unpopular and devastating spending cuts that never materialize. He will be optimistic while they will offer austerity and alarm. Have you seen that only 34 percent of Americans approve of the G.O.P. agenda...? [David puts these words in the mouth of Edmund Burke, whom he portrays holding an imaginary discussion with Alexander Hamilton.]
For the good of the country, Republicans need to cut. That strikes me as right. But in doing so, the Republicans will unnerve millions of Americans. While the President offers to shower Americans with gifts--higher salaries for teachers, high-speed rail connections, loans for college--the Republicans will look like so many Scrooges, bah-ing and humbugging while trying to snatch all the President's nice gifts away. Even if they do succeed in cutting spending, will the Republicans get credit in November 2012? Or will the President ever so deftly step in to take credit instead?
The Republicans in Congress strike me as the most articulate, determined and impressive in my lifetime--maybe since the founding of the GOP itself.
And they're doomed.
Someone--anyone--tell me I'm wrong.
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
It sounds like the Republicans are determined to do exactly what We elected Them to do. Remember that election of only two months ago?
I don't understand the pessimism.
Jul '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
"Even if they do succeed in cutting spending, will the Republicans get credit in November 2012?"
Well, I remember a President Who stated:
"There is no limit to what you can accomplish
if you don't care who gets the credit."
Dec '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
There are ways to do the unpopular without being unpopular.
The Republicans in Congress need to lay out the problem for the American people -- charts and graphs included, in moderation -- and say, "From this, everybody can agree that if we don't cut by X, we will reach oblivion by Y date."
Then they need to say to the President, "Where will you cut in order to save the United States from oblivion, Mr. President?"
Then they can tap their toes for a while as Obama refuses to engage.
And then they need to say, "That's what we thought. Here is what WE will do to save the USA from oblivion. Mr. President, will you join us or will you stand in the way of what is right and necessary to save the USA from oblivion?"
At that point, either Obama follows or he obstructs -- he'll have missed his opportunity to lead.
What the Republicans should NOT do is act unilaterally without:
Jul '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
Peter, when the Republicans promised to cut spending to 2008 levels, I was furious. Cut it to 2000 levels, I fumed - not as a percent of GDP, but in nominal terms.
The problem, of course, is that they have a whole lot of 'splainin' to do - the public must come to understand that there is no alternative to cutting back on spending. Fortunately, the Tea Party has laid the groundwork for that.
Funny how much the world has changed since Rick Santelli stood on the floor of the Chicago Exchange and cried, "Stop spending! Stop spending! Stop spending!"
Since that day, tens of millions of Americans have learned that entitlements are a Ponzi scheme, government employees are grossly over-compensated and the national debt is unsustainable.
I'm wary of parading celebrities through Congressional hearings, but a guest stint by Santelli might be instructive.
Oct '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
Peter... you are correct. To stand by your promises and do what must be done, however unpopular, is a losing proposition. Only a great statesman, like a Churchill or a Thatcher would be so foolish. People who stand by their promises and do what is required are lost to history. Who were those two Brits again??
Dec '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
An attack of acute squishiness?
Mister Brooks opinion to the contrary, it's going to take some work to make Republicans look unhinged when they've stated a plan, and seem to be following it. Further, at this point, it's going to take even more work to make Barack Obama look either moderate or mature.
If you're worried about how the media is going to treat Republicans who save our collective butts by enforcing a cut in spending, how did you get this far?
May '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
It depends entirely on whether the American people are ready to be spoken to as adults, and act like adults.
If the American people choose to believe that President Obama can hop on his unicorn, ride to the end of the rainbow, and bring back the pot of gold there to pay for all the goodies, then we're screwed.
Dec '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
It won't make any difference, Peter. If they don't succeed, if we don't stop the bleeding, we're all doomed. It's that simple.
I've been arguing this point with liberals for the last few years. They get all red in the face and I just calmly tell them. "This is not politics. This is math. Magical thinking will no longer cut it."
Jan '11
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
If the president and the media were the only communicators, then their blatant distortions would bamboozle the public, and we'd have reason to fear.
But they're not the only communicators anymore.
When the wolf puts on sheep's clothing directly in front of you, somehow the illusion is ruined. We have the punditry (even the liberal ones) openly discussing Obama's political calculating on faux "moves to the center." It's deception in plain sight, which usually destroys the deception. Usually.
In a way, this is a national idiot test. If the public falls for these theatrics and ignores the reality, then we'll get what we deserve.
Oct '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
I see a lot of overreacting panic to President Obama’s rising poll ratings, perceived triangulations, and the media onslaught against Republicans this month.
The truth is, people are taking a break from politics (weren’t the NFL playoffs awesome this year!!) to see how it unfolds with the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Nobody bought the President’s high speed rail and solar panels mumbo jumbo. His grocery list of liberal fantasies didn’t resonate with independents and moderates. Using the 2008 and 2006 spending levels as their mantra will keep the discussion in a framework that may deflect the accusations of draconian cuts.
What I see happening is reasonable cuts of $100 billion in each of the next 2 years, and Speaker Boehner avoiding Social Security and Medicare proposals until the Presidential election. Paul Ryan and Rand Paul (and Kenneth) are definitely outliers that will be pushing for massive cuts, and will be shoved under the bus in the 112th Congress. This is wise politics in the short term, although fiscally irresponsible.
We still have the Senator Reid-led US Senate to contend with and can blame for not touching entitlements.
Oct '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
And they're doomed.
Someone--anyone--tell me I'm wrong. ·
They are doomed.
Stuart Creque has suggested above:
Well, how did that whole "charts and graphs" thing work out for Ross Perot? The U.S. ended up with 8 years of Bill Clinton.
This is the only chart you need to look at to comprehend what is happening, and I published it before the 2008 election. The constituency for solvency is becoming a minority, and there are abundant and tragic examples of how that ends from around the globe and across the centuries.
Dec '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
I actually think - anecdotally at least - the the Republicans are already achieving the goal of educating the public. I've been noticing a lot of liberal friends - including "friends" on Facebook who are really only acquaintances - who have grabbed onto "we have to cut government spending" in much the same way that they did the global warming (but this time the crisis is real and concrete).
I am quite enthused by the new GOP leadership. Cantor, Boehner, Ryan, West, Toomey - the list goes on and on. They appear to me as people of integrity who will continue to push for what is right, as well as being pretty adept politically.
So long story short, I'm not in a panic. Yet.
Jul '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
I'm with Funeral Guy, Peter. The crisis is real. Reid has already picked up the meme that these Tea Party wise guys are clueless, living in a different world. The answer to that, every time, is where is that 8% unemployment and improving you clowns promised us two years ago. Where is this phantom boom Paul Krugman promised? Why does the President of the United States of America bow to foreign tyrants and tolerate foreign insults meekly? Is this Finland? Why are you lying to us, Mr. Reid? Who are you selling America to? Hu? Faud? Or are we a timeshare now?
We have to do the grown up thing and make the case for it every day. Every one of those Presidential hopefuls and somedays has to make the preservation of the Republic as a military and fiscal power the core of every stump speech. All that is at stake is American self-determination and the prosperity of our children.
Reid and Obama will suck every dime they can off the credit cards before we wrench the Republic from their grimy mitts. Look at your unemployed neighbors, teen jobs are a memory. But for the ObamaReid, no problem.
Nov '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
Is there anyone, anywhere who would be swayed by the promise of "high speed rail?" Other than Tom Friedman, is there anyone who thinks that high speed rail is the solution for our ills? Obama isn't even smart enough to realise that in order to buy votes you have to offer things that people actually want.
We are not Europeans. We are Americans. Offer us SUVs for Heaven's sake!
Jun '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
If Republicans do the wrong thing (does the word "appeasement" come to mind?), then we are doomed. Do the right thing and damn the political consequences. If Americans won't man up, it won't matter anyway.
Sep '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
I'm not so pessimistic. Of course there will be rhetorical challenges and public debates. Of course the MSM will attack. So what? They were going to do that anyway. (See also: Palin, Sarah.)
Do the job you were sent to do.
Sep '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
If they're doomed then the Republic wasn't worth saving anyway. Do you really all believe that? If the City on a shining hill is going to go down to defeat then I'd sure as hell want the history books to show me going down swinging and fighting and not hiding under a table, gnawing the table legs.
Damn the torpedoes, and full speed ahead. If its Thermopylae, so be it.
Jun '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
Pseudodionysius: If they're doomed then the Republic wasn't worth saving anyway. Do you really all believe that? If the City on a shining hill is going to go down to defeat then I'd sure as hell want the history books to show me going down swinging and fighting and not hiding under a table, gnawing the table legs.
Damn the torpedoes, and full speed ahead. If its Thermopylae, so be it. · Jan 28 at 5:13pm
Hurrah!
When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wonder'd.
Honour the charge they made!
Jan '11
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
As long as we're doing Thermopylae:
"The King with half the East at heel has marched from lands of morning,
Their fighters drink the rivers up, their shafts benight the air,
And he that stands will die for naught, and home there's no returning.
The Spartans on the sea-wet rock sat down and combed their hair."
I hope we've elected ourselves some Spartans.
Sep '10
Re: The Republicans Have a Problem (A Big One)
In the words of Margaret Thatcher:
"Peter, don't go wobbly on us now."