The Red State Renaissance
Joel Kotkin, writing in today's Wall Street Journal:
In the wake of the 2012 presidential election, some political commentators have written political obituaries of the "red" or conservative-leaning states, envisioning a brave new world dominated by fashionably blue bastions in the Northeast or California. But political fortunes are notoriously fickle, while economic trends tend to be more enduring.
These trends point to a U.S. economic future dominated by four growth corridors that are generally less dense, more affordable, and markedly more conservative and pro-business: the Great Plains, the Intermountain West, the Third Coast (spanning the Gulf states from Texas to Florida), and the Southeastern industrial belt.
Overall, these corridors account for 45% of the nation's land mass and 30% of its population. Between 2001 and 2011, job growth in the Great Plains, the Intermountain West and the Third Coast was between 7% and 8%—nearly 10 times the job growth rate for the rest of the country. Only the Southeastern industrial belt tracked close to the national average.
... Since 2000, the Intermountain West's population has grown by 20%, the Third Coast's by 14%, the long-depopulating Great Plains by over 14%, and the Southeast by 13%. Population in the rest of the U.S. has grown barely 7%. Last year, the largest net recipients of domestic migrants were Texas and Florida, which between them gained 150,000. The biggest losers? New York, New Jersey, Illinois and California.
The handwriting is on the wall here. The blue state model is losing market share (talk to any group of conservatives in California and the topic of where everyone is considering moving will invariably come up in the first 15 minutes), which is a real problem given that it relies on populations sufficiently large to buttress its thicket of transfer payments.
Here's what I'm curious about: to what extent will the culture follow the economy? Will a red state media center emerge to compete with New York, Los Angeles, and Washington? Will universities in the interior of the country start to see their prestige rise relative to the legacy institutions of the coasts? Will there be new entertainment meccas to compete with Hollywood or Broadway (the first person who suggests Branson gets their membership revoked)?
Also, given that this topic comes up here from time to time, I'm curious to hear members' thoughts on two questions:
If you live in one of the decaying blue states, what is your tipping point for packing up and leaving?
And if you live in one of the ascendant red states, how do you feel about the influx of new residents?
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Jun '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I'm not a native Texan but I got here as fast as I could. I say bring it on. As long as these folks leave their blue state dependency mentality behind and are prepared to work for a living then more people will mean growth and a larger, hopefully center-right, voice in the political process.
Nov '10
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Californian here, I'm leaving as soon as I'm able, hopefully to northern Arizona. It costs a lot to move, and right now (and in the past) I'm at zero.
(Technically I'm in Utah now, but that's just for school.)
Sep '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
My family in Jersey is always trying to get me to move back from Georgia. I always politely explain to them that they are out of their minds.
Edited on February 26, 2013 at 8:23pmSep '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
To expound on this point, I get almost daily e-mails and phone calls from recruiters in my given profession for jobs nearby here in Georgia. I've looked in Jersey before, and the pickings are slim.
Dec '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I live in NY. The wife and I are planning a move south ASAP
Feb '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Can't wait. I hope the hard-blue states learn a lesson in the process.
Jul '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
The problem is I have seen lots of cases of formerly GOP bed rock areas going Blue or at a minimum Purple due to migration.
1: VT due to burnt out New Yorkers who moved after making their fortune on WallStreet
2: NH: Ex-Bostonians and New Yorkers
3: NoVa: When I was young and drove south on I-95 from NY to FL you felt you entered the South when you crosses the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Now NoVa is the same as being in any other part of the Northeast Corridor.
4: NV, OR, WA and CO: Ex-Californians
It seems those left behind in places like NY, CA etc get Bluer and Bluer. I do not know of any case where a Blue has gone Red due to migration.
Yes in the short term these Red areas are benefiting but over time the Blue Staters who moved there will take over.
May '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I do live in a blue state. The question is not really one of a tipping point that forces me to move... Rather, it is one of opportunity. If something arose elsewhere, I would almost certainly jump. Therein lies the problem. I am notoriously horrible at looking for (much less finding) work, and nobody is beating down my door.
When the topic of where everyone is wanting to move comes up, is it ever followed by conversation regarding what they plan to do once they get there?
Nov '10
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Californian here. Retirement looms. My wife is suggesting TX. I kinda like AZ. We'll compromise and I go to TX with her. :-)
Jun '10
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I'm inclined toward this point of view. As a native Oregonian, we got so blue so fast, us Conservatives are still in shock. Good luck to the rest of you. We're gonna be blue for a long time.
MichaelC19fan: The problem is I have seen lots of cases of formerly GOP bed rock areas going Blue or at a minimum Purple due to migration.
1: VT due to burnt out New Yorkers who moved after making their fortune on WallStreet
2: NH: Ex-Bostonians and New Yorkers
3: NoVa: When I was young and drove south on I-95 from NY to FL you felt you entered the South when you crosses the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Now NoVa is the same as being in any other part of the Northeast Corridor.
4: NV, OR, WA and CO: Ex-Californians
It seems those left behind in places like NY, CA etc get Bluer and Bluer. I do not know of any case where a Blue has gone Red due to migration.
Yes in the short term these Red areas are benefiting but over time the Blue Staters who moved there will take over. · 10 minutes ago
Mar '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Only if Wedlock births don't take over which pretty much takes the southeast and third coast out. Utah has the highest fertility rate and lowest wedlock birth rate next I think are states Like Idaho and Colorado.
Oct '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
MichaelC19fan: The problem is I have seen lots of cases of formerly GOP bed rock areas going Blue or at a minimum Purple due to migration.
1: VT due to burnt out New Yorkers who moved after making their fortune on WallStreet
2: NH: Ex-Bostonians and New Yorkers
3: NoVa: When I was young and drove south on I-95 from NY to FL you felt you entered the South when you crosses the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Now NoVa is the same as being in any other part of the Northeast Corridor.
4: NV, OR, WA and CO: Ex-Californians
It seems those left behind in places like NY, CA etc get Bluer and Bluer. I do not know of any case where a Blue has gone Red due to migration.
Yes in the short term these Red areas are benefiting but over time the Blue Staters who moved there will take over. · 23 minutes ago
This worries me, since I've seen it happen here in Colorado. We're looking to get out within the next couple of years - Texas or Third Coast - but I'm praying they don't start turning purple.
Oct '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I'm a Blue-Stater who's not moving anytime soon. My work and and extended family have me tied to the region in the near term.
Longer term, perhaps when I retire, I'll no longer be able to afford the high tax environment, and then, other locales will beckon.
Mar '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
In blue state Maryland, the tipping point is retirement/children out the door (5 to 7 best guess). The potential Red states under consideration are Idaho and the Carolinas, from a livability POV. Tax-wise Delaware, Florida, Texas are pleasing but the weather will not support continued matrimony.
Mar '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
MichaelC19fan: The problem is I have seen lots of cases of formerly GOP bed rock areas going Blue or at a minimum Purple due to migration.
3: NoVa: When I was young and drove south on I-95 from NY to FL you felt you entered the South when you crosses the Woodrow Wilson Bridge. Now NoVa is the same as being in any other part of the Northeast Corridor.
It seems those left behind in places like NY, CA etc get Bluer and Bluer. I do not know of any case where a Blue has gone Red due to migration.
Yes in the short term these Red areas are benefiting but over time the Blue Staters who moved there will take over. · 32 minutes ago
Amen. I'd refer to Virginia as a decaying red state. The influx of blue staters has been such that our Republican boy governor feels comfortable engineering a 20% increase in the state sales tax in Northern Virginia.
Dec '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Florida is another decaying Red state and may go Blue if it has not already. Some immigrants to Florida are Blue retirees from the Northeast. We also have a lot of Puerto Ricans in Orlando and they have turned that area from Red to Blue. I would love to see some conservatives move down here to save Florida before I end up having to move to Texas.
Jun '11
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I wouldn't give up on Blue America quite yet. The big towns and small cities that aren't in the middle of nowhere do just fine. My tax burden is a bit higher in CT than it was in IN, but my public services are better (though I chose my town carefully).
Nov '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
The problem here in South Carolina (as elsewhere) is that blue staters, while seeking economic freedom, keep their blue state mindset about government, not realizing (or maybe not caring) that their votes will end what they sought in moving here.
Feb '13
Re: The Red State Renaissance
I'm in California and am desperate to get out. Unfortunately, I have two things working against me, one big, one little.
The big one: My step-kids live in the area and wifey doesn't want to move too far away from them. Neither do I really (but I try not to say that out loud)
The little one: I'm a software engineer and this is the center of it.
But I'm happy to change careers if it gets me out of this s**t hole. Cabinet-maker, rent-a-husband, motorcycling coach, roustabout, anything really.
Dying to get to NM or Utah, maybe even Tejas.
Jun '12
Re: The Red State Renaissance
Live in Texas (for past 47 yrs) and am worried about blue staters moving in. Had some big changes after Katrina when we took in bunches of people from New Orleans (my original home town - I always say its a nice place to be from) who decided to stay. Affected some local politics that went blue. Its ok if they leave their blue state mentality behind too but I'm afraid that wont happen. Maybe if they all moved to Austin which is as liberal a place that there can be. Maybe we will have to send them to re-education camps when they come here?