The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Peter Robinson ·
October 31, 2012 at 7:12pm
Today on RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende:
Given what we know about how individual states typically lean with respect to the popular vote, a Republican enjoying a one-point lead nationally should expect a three-to-four-point lead in Florida, a two-to-three-point lead in Ohio, and a tie in Iowa. Instead we see Romney ahead by roughly one point in Florida, and down by two in Ohio and Iowa.
Why are the polls so screwy? Trende's own analysis is worth reading in full, and Rob, James, Troy and I spent much of the hour on the podcast we recorded this morning--with the able assistance of Ricochet members, and political professionals, Adam Schaeffer and Rick Wilson--trying to figure it out.
But here's the short answer:
Nobody knows.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Why were mortgage loan applications or appraisals so screwy in 2007?
May '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Never in the field of human hysteria have so many been so misled by so few.
Apr '11
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Sampling bias. That is the best explanation. Pollsters for some reason can not sample a representative slice of America. They then try to correct for this by making up constants from thin air...
Mar '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Jay Cost also has an article on polling at RCP.
My take from these articles is that, this year, pollsters are divided into two groups. They differ dramatically in their assumptions about the demographics and party ID of the voters that will actually vote. Thus, the results differ significantly. Using an average, like RCP, is no help. One group will be right and the other wrong. Splitting the difference is meaningless. This is a "place your bets" election. There is no fence to sit on.
The other point is that the state polls are often run by local, less established polling organizations as compared to the national polls. Again, the inconsistency between the two may be a matter of methodology.
So, who do you trust?
Personnally, I will be watching VA, FL and NH on Tuesday night as indicators as to which set assumptions is correct.
Sep '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Rush suggested this morning that the left is still skewing polls to prepare and bolster their accusations of fraud in the case of a Romney win. They think close polling numbers and, in some cases, polls showing O with a solid lead will give the left a chance to claim wide-spread GOP voter fraud (voter ID fraud).
Jun '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
If polls are meant to be the barometer of the people, and the polls are screwy, it stands to reason that the answer to your query is simply: People are screwy.
Now, if only a way to measure the psyche of poll watching ...
Edited on October 31, 2012 at 7:36pmJul '11
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Since when have we had an election like this? 1860 maybe but this one is more serious.
Apr '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
In medical clinical trials it is called selection bias....any poll which has an equal or higher democratic weight to 2008 is absolutely ludicrous.
May '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
"Zombie" suggests a correlation between sample size and bias:
"Polls with Large Voter Samples All Favor Romney; Smaller, Less Reliable Polls All Favor Obama. Why?"
http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2012/10/24/polls-with-large-voter-samples-all-favor-romney/
May '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Yikes!
Jun '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Some of it is likely the pollsters trying to please their primary customers the "mainstream" (i.e. lefty) media.
Some of it is likely Bradley Effect.
Jan '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
As floating voters move from the sterile linear left-right paradigm to multidimensional analysis of presidential choice the simplistic assumptions that voters in different states are somehow connected will be replaced by local practicalities. Those practicalities include but are not limited to education, national economy, health, local economy job prospects and infrastructure.
Jun '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Also, regardless of why, if the polls don't reflect the eventual outcome, the entire polling profession is going to have two big black eyes.
Sep '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Cross posted from the member feed--didn't see PR's post.
Some pollsters go to great lengths to make sure that not only do they have the correct partisan mix, but also the correct demographic balance to mimic the likely voting population. However, one thing that is unmeasurable (and, I think, a very real factor in the post 2008, post-Tea Party eruption ear) is "the hang-up factor." Pollsters have no way of knowing the response of people who simply hang up on them, and for independents, that truly matters... (more on who these people are on the member feed--hint: the Tea Party?)
http://ricochet.com/member-feed/Why-the-polls-are-wrong
Nov '11
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
It may be that people on the Right distrust both the media and the polls and are less likely to respond to pollsters than are those on the Left. If so, then even pollsters who are honestly trying to produce unbiased results will fail. If I'm right, then we can look forward to a big win next Tuesday night. Here's hoping.
Edited on October 31, 2012 at 8:34pmMay '10
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
My caution is that in 2006, everyone on our side was drinking bathwater and calling polls nonsense when we were behind in all of them, and the Left did something similar in 2010 when it was heavy in our favor.
The problem now is that things are close- and no one has a clue what the real turnout model should look like. The surveys bounce within the margin of error both ways from one day to the next. We don't know what the Hang-Up Effect, the Bradley Effect, or the undercover enthusiasm/ground game effect will be. Thus the turnout models for virtually every poll are a pure crap-shoot.
The disheartening thing is that it should not be close. That fact alone says that our country may well be Greece 5 years earlier as Mark Steyn constantly warns us.
I find this all pretty depressing.
Jun '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Not quite.
I will bet you any sum you name that we will not see the 85+% voter participation that some polls are using as their "likely voter" screen.
Apr '11
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
Has anyone heard anything reliable on what the campaign internal polls are showing? I know this is guarded info, but it seems like someone must know something. I am desperate to feel a little better before Tuesday.
Jun '12
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
I think you can pick that up from the demeanor of the two campaigns.
Who looks confident, and who looks desperate?
Jan '11
Re: The Question of the Hour, Or, Why Are the Polls So Screwy This Year?
So where is the podcast already? - Thank you.
Edited on October 31, 2012 at 11:43pm