The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Over the last week or so the polling news has been disappointing, with Obama taking a lead over Romney in the Rasmussen polls, polls in which Romney has consistently--until now--done very well. No doubt we should all feel sobered. At the same time, we should take this news with a couple of grains of salt.
The first, a conversation I had yesterday with the esteemed political scientist Morris Fiorina, whose office at the Hoover Institution lies a floor below mine. Over the last couple of weeks, I've taken to sticking my head in Mo's door, asking the very same question every time. Yesterday, he gave me the very same answer.
ME: Do the polls mean anything yet, Mo?
MO: No.
The second grain of salt, the nearby chart. As you'll see, in 1980 Reagan trailed Carter well into the summer, took a lead after the GOP convention, and then fell behind Carter all over again.
Not until the very last week of the campaign did the polls reflect the support for Reagan that would give him victory with fifty-one percent of the vote.
One of the country's leading political scientists insists the polls won't matter until after Labor Day. And if 1980 is anything to go by, even Labor Day may be too early.
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Do any of these polls measure intensity? If a Fall tornado were to pass over my house on Election Day, and the wind propelled a door-size piece of sheet metal into my legs at 200 mph, severing both of them, I'd tie off my bleeding legs, crawl the mile and a half over to my polling place, cast my ballot, and then...if I'm still conscious...call an ambulance. Not before. First things first.
Jun '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Peter, you do remember the results of the 2010 midterms? And the spontaneous march of a million tea party patriots in D.C. in 2009? Do you suppose any of these voters have warmed to the president since then? If the election is decided by turnout, we'll win in a landslide.
Dec '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Is that to vote for Romney or against Obama?
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Ah, Mel, you're my kind of guy.
Jun '12
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
I keep pointing out the Reagan/Carter polls, both here and elsewhere.
The response I usually get is, "this year is different."
Some people aren't happy unless they're complaining.
May '12
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Remember to grab your ID.
May '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
So, Mel--what are you trying to tell us?
Apr '12
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Romney is seen as elite, out of touch white man with a hidden agenda to get rid of abortion. I do believe he needs to reach out to women. He needs to get tax policies to give refunds for piano lessons and Soccor, etc. It is fluffy and minimal but it turned the election for Stephen Harper and the conservatives of Canada. His platform had an objective to help families. Romney is doing well with the small business owner, now he needs to get mums if it is through tax breaks or something. He should continue wearing his jeans and open neck shirt. Stay away from the Wall Street outfits. He is seen to be better for the economy.
May '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Sad but true in today's "The View" electorate...
Edited on August 8, 2012 at 10:37pmJun '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
I'm trying to take some comfort in this analogy, but at least one thing doesn't translate. Reagan had a real, believable core.
After the campaign responded today to the "Romney killed the fired steelworker's cancer-stricken wife" with "She would have had insurance in Massachusetts under Romneycare...", I had a pretty sinking feeling. How is he going to fight to repeal O'care if this is part of the campaign?
It wasn't as deep a sinking feeling as if he ends up picking Bob Dole as his VP choice, but it didn't augur well.
May '11
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
The only "poll" that matters is the one on Nov. 6 (Nov. 7 for Democrats).
Jun '10
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
The King Prawn
Is that to vote for Romney or against Obama?
I'm voting against national suicide--another name for the Obama platform.
Jul '12
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
As the graph shows, the real break in opinion came in the final week, after the final debate and Reagan's "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" closing argument. Are we confident the Romey-bot can deliver such a moment as did The Great Communicator? He's shown flashes, but then again, see Eeyore's comment #10.
Jul '12
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
The graph shows that candiadtes to the right of Jimmy Carter led him by an agregate of 18 points in July 1980.
Edited on August 9, 2012 at 2:55amApr '11
Re: The Polls and Two Grains of Salt
Does anyone know what happened in July/August that shot Reagan past Carter for a brief period? Such a bump would seem to relate to a specific event.