The Persuadables
I keep saying that this election -- and all elections -- is about the "twelve or fifteen percent" in the middle. The undecideds. The "persuadable Obama voter."
We are going after disaffected Obama voters, but I'm wrong about that number, apparently. From Politico:
The swing vote in this year’s presidential race may be as small as ever, as polarized partisans dig in behind their respective nominees. The collection of voters who could actually change their minds under the influence of the candidate and the campaign itself includes many of the usual suspects: downscale Midwesterners, suburban women and other better-educated, higher-income white Americans...
Obama and Romney have tended to overperform among better-educated, upper-income voters. They have both struggled to connect with the working class. Obama had a hard time overcoming Hillary Clinton’s downscale advantage in the 2008 cycle and Romney repeatedly lost the category to Rick Santorum in this year’s GOP primary.
Complicating matters further, the two demographic groups — upscale and blue-collar white voters — can’t necessarily be courted with the same message; a populist pitch that motivates the blue-collar vote may alienate upper-income voters just as strongly.
Which may be good news:
Strategists privy to internal polling on both sides of the 2012 race say that higher-end suburbanites — particularly white women — are perhaps the most closely divided persuadables. One Republican operative involved in 2012 strategy put it this way: “We are going after moderate, upscale people, who maybe for the first time voted for a Democrat for president [in 2008] and are rethinking that.”
“They just kind of fit the classical description of what swing voters are these days: for the most part fiscally conservative, probably don’t mind raising taxes on the really rich, don’t like the Republican social-issue agenda, want a good economy, fiscal sanity, but aren’t ideological in one way or the other,” the strategist said.
So it's a smaller slice of the electorate we have to win -- well, win back -- but they're persuadable.
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Apr '11
Re: The Persuadables
Bern SHN
I think that there is a strategy that can appeal to Hispanic voters but I don't think that a "serious pro-life" message will do the trick. Unlike Black voters, I think that Hispanic and other ethnic minority voters could be [Dr. Evil pinky to corner of mouth] "persuadable?". (I especially feel this is the case with Asian voters who seem to be more or less ignored by candidates.)
As to what message would resonate, I have no idea. But I think it has to be more than putting Rubio or Jindal on the ticket to truly have an impact. ·
Even if Rubio was not disbarred by his Mormon heritage, Governor Martinez is a far better advocate for immigration law enforcement, and for the appeal of Republican messages. She's of Mexican heritage rather than Cuban, has worked on the front line of immigration enforcement, and won an election in a Hispanic state where immigration was a dominant issue.
On Republican messages, she's stayed popular while cutting the budget, and her pro-life messages are all the more powerful for her gender. She's an enormous asset.
Dec '11
Re: The Persuadables
A major concern I would have with Martinez is that she was elected in 2010. Same concern is there for West or Johnson or any of the other great officials that were elected less than two years ago and are currently serving their first term. I'm not a huge one for the "experience" argument as there is nothing that can prepare anyone for the modern presidency. But having someone in the Number 2 spot that has a bit more seasoning and has already been vetted as both a candidate and an official seeking reelection would give me some comfort that fewer surprises await. (Perhaps the Dems should have thought of this before they nominated a first-term Senator for President who now, for the first time really, has a record that he must defend.)
May '10
Re: The Persuadables
I think I saw some research that showed that middle-of-the-road undecided voters have lower IQs. I don't mean that in a sneering way. I mean that the message has to be simple and very direct to win those votes. probably it helps to be handsome too.
Apr '11
Re: The Persuadables
Bern SHN
A major concern I would have with Martinez is that she was elected in 2010. Same concern is there for West or Johnson or any of the other great officials that were elected less than two years ago and are currently serving their first term. I'm not a huge one for the "experience" argument as there is nothing that can prepare anyone for the modern presidency. But having someone in the Number 2 spot that has a bit more seasoning and has already been vetted as both a candidate and an official seeking reelection would give me some comfort that fewer surprises await.
I agree. The 2010 election of Rubio and Martinez is a serious problem. Between Rubio and Martinez, though, I'd pick Martinez, for superior Hispanic outreach, superior record, superior female outreach, and superior not being a Mormon qualities. ;-)
That said, she's no Bob Portman.