The Persuadables
I keep saying that this election -- and all elections -- is about the "twelve or fifteen percent" in the middle. The undecideds. The "persuadable Obama voter."
We are going after disaffected Obama voters, but I'm wrong about that number, apparently. From Politico:
The swing vote in this year’s presidential race may be as small as ever, as polarized partisans dig in behind their respective nominees. The collection of voters who could actually change their minds under the influence of the candidate and the campaign itself includes many of the usual suspects: downscale Midwesterners, suburban women and other better-educated, higher-income white Americans...
Obama and Romney have tended to overperform among better-educated, upper-income voters. They have both struggled to connect with the working class. Obama had a hard time overcoming Hillary Clinton’s downscale advantage in the 2008 cycle and Romney repeatedly lost the category to Rick Santorum in this year’s GOP primary.
Complicating matters further, the two demographic groups — upscale and blue-collar white voters — can’t necessarily be courted with the same message; a populist pitch that motivates the blue-collar vote may alienate upper-income voters just as strongly.
Which may be good news:
Strategists privy to internal polling on both sides of the 2012 race say that higher-end suburbanites — particularly white women — are perhaps the most closely divided persuadables. One Republican operative involved in 2012 strategy put it this way: “We are going after moderate, upscale people, who maybe for the first time voted for a Democrat for president [in 2008] and are rethinking that.”
“They just kind of fit the classical description of what swing voters are these days: for the most part fiscally conservative, probably don’t mind raising taxes on the really rich, don’t like the Republican social-issue agenda, want a good economy, fiscal sanity, but aren’t ideological in one way or the other,” the strategist said.
So it's a smaller slice of the electorate we have to win -- well, win back -- but they're persuadable.
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Apr '11
Re: The Persuadables
Before people freak out too much, remember that this is one dumb anonymous operative trying to spread his meme. A brief look at the 5 top swing states (OH, NC, VA, FL, PA) should tell you that no one is going to win by tacking to the social left. There's a lot of operatives and advisers who aren't social conservatives, just as there's a lot who aren't fiscal conservatives, but you won't find many of either variety in Mitt's inner circle. There are some moderates, but they're outnumbered and they're not nearly so moderate as this guy is.
I should note that he's not claiming to be socially liberal, but in my experience just about every single guy or woman I've listened to who wanted to emphasize the danger of social conservative messages generally (as opposed to specific messages), was doing so out of wishful thinking. It requires a willful ignorance of the numbers.
Jul '11
Re: The Persuadables
I think there are plenty of persuadables and they look at their wallets to decide.
Apr '12
Re: The Persuadables
I think Romney's best argument for the persuadables is competence....I think that is why we will be hearing the "he is a nice guy but he is over his head" line over and over again.
Jan '11
Re: The Persuadables
Even though I usually scorn wishy-washy independents as people who just can't make up their minds, they do offer society a useful safety valve. When push comes to shove, these people usually bend to the wind of success. After all, these last-minute deciders aren't fooled by media manipulation or demographic pressure (if they were, they'd have chosen Democrat long before). It's not that they're stupid; it's that they won't decide until the last minute. It winds up that if society is going well, they reward the incumbent. If society is going bad, out he goes.
Which means that practical success matters. That's a good thing.
And, based on Obama's dismal performance, makes me a little more confident about the election.
Mar '11
Re: The Persuadables
In Obama the underdog (great title!), Jay Cost makes the point that Mr Obama lost Independent support about half way through his first year, and it ain't coming back.
The greatest persuader is Mr Obama's own incompetence.
Dec '10
Re: The Persuadables
A numbers question I just don't have the math to answer: how much of Obama's vote was outside the normal voting trends? How many young or black people voted last time that won't bother this time? How does he fare with normal turnout?
Aug '10
Re: The Persuadables
Just yesterday I spoke separately to female colleagues (educated, upscale) who mentioned, unbidden, their presidential preferences. Lady #1, an Obama voter, said that she would vote for Romney based on Obama's mishandling of the economy and Romney's greater competence. Lady #2, a registered Republican, said that she would not vote for Romney because she is unhappy with how little he pays in taxes.
It's interesting that (by my lights) Lady #1 had a valid, logical complaint, while Lady #2 did not.
Mar '11
Re: The Persuadables
I hope lady #2 will be happy with how much extra she pays in taxes when Mr Obama has more freedom in his second term (after the hated Bush tax cuts expire).
Is she also unhappy with how much Mr Romney gives to charities, as opposed to Federally-funded Las Vegas party-goers?
Sometimes I worry about registered Republicans.
May '10
Re: The Persuadables
David Williamson
I hope lady #2 will be happy with how much extra she pays in taxes when Mr Obama has more freedom in his second term (after the hated Bush tax cuts expire).
Is she also unhappy with how much Mr Romney gives to charities, as opposed to Federally-funded Las Vegas party-goers?
Sometimes I worry about registered Republicans. · 3 minutes ago
It's a ploy to not look elitist to her peers. I'm willing to bet Lady #2 either ends up voting for Mitt or stays home.
May '10
Re: The Persuadables
Rob Long's fall project:
Aug '10
Re: The Persuadables
EJHill: Rob Long's fall project: · 5 minutes ago
Edited 3 minutes ago
EJ, you continue to astonish.
Aug '10
Re: The Persuadables
David Williamson
I hope lady #2 will be happy with how much extra she pays in taxes when Mr Obama has more freedom in his second term (after the hated Bush tax cuts expire).
Is she also unhappy with how much Mr Romney gives to charities, as opposed to Federally-funded Las Vegas party-goers?
Sometimes I worry about registered Republicans. · 39 minutes ago
You could also ask, would Lady #2 be happy with higher taxes on investments, resulting in less investment in the private sector and greater investment in the public sector, as wealthy individuals engage in tax-avoidance behavior and seek out tax-advantaged securities such as municipal bonds.
Dec '11
Re: The Persuadables
James Of England: Before people freak out too much, remember that this is one dumb anonymous operative trying to spread his meme. A brief look at the 5 top swing states (OH, NC, VA, FL, PA) should tell you that no one is going to win by tacking to the social left. There's a lot of operatives and advisers who aren't social conservatives, just as there's a lot who aren't fiscal conservatives, but you won't find many of either variety in Mitt's inner circle. There are some moderates, but they're outnumbered and they're not nearly so moderate as this guy is.
I should note that he's not claiming to be socially liberal, but in my experience just about every single guy or woman I've listened to who wanted to emphasize the danger of social conservative messages generally (as opposed to specific messages), was doing so out of wishful thinking. It requires a willful ignorance of the numbers. · 2 hours ago
Holy Heck! We agree.
Jan '11
Re: The Persuadables
EJ, I didn't think it possible, but you're getting even better. Nice job.
Dec '11
Re: The Persuadables
The phrase "Republican social-issue agenda" is pretty disconcerting coming from a Republican strategist. What about the Obama social agenda? It has perhaps been the most radical attempt to reshape America since FDR. In my opinion, there hasn't been much, if any social agenda, by the Republicans beyond trying to stop Obama. It is the President's radical social agenda that should be the focus - and it starts with repealing Obamacare.
Mar '11
Re: The Persuadables
I think your twelve or fifteen percent is down to about six or seven percent, and tightening more every year, with more lining up on either side more or less permanently. We really are, as someone put it, in the Cold Civil War.
Mar '11
Re: The Persuadables
I'm willing to bet she may not even be a Republican. It's an old trick of the leftist media to cite "Republicans" condemning Republicans. It's usually later that we've found out that they've given large amounts of dough to Democrats when you actually check up on them.
Apr '11
Re: The Persuadables
Guruforhire
Holy Heck! We agree. ·
Statistically, given the posting volumes, it had to happen eventually. ;-)
See comments 1 and 13. There are a lot of guys working for the campaign, and many of them have dumb opinions, both pro-and anti- social conservatism. I know a campaign worker who thinks that Mitt should spend his money on a serious pro-life campaign in California, which would persuade Hispanics to flip and win the state, which would win the election.
He's very good at his job, and Mitt ought to keep him, but his political analysis is sometimes a little wishful. The quoted guy is just the social liberal side of that (assuming he's good). The appropriate response is eye rolling.
Apr '11
Re: The Persuadables
Keith Preston
David Williamson
I hope lady #2 will be happy with how much extra she pays in taxes when Mr Obama has more freedom in his second term (after the hated Bush tax cuts expire).
Is she also unhappy with how much Mr Romney gives to charities, as opposed to Federally-funded Las Vegas party-goers?
Sometimes I worry about registered Republicans.
It's a ploy to not look elitist to her peers. I'm willing to bet Lady #2 either ends up voting for Mitt or stays home. ·
Don't bet too big on that. There's a depressing number of people for whom Mitt's wealth is a genuine issue. If it's really taxes that bother her, asking if she'd prefer it if Mitt gave to charity in Biden-like sums, in which case he'd pay more Biden-like taxes, is often helpful. A lot of the time, though, it's just a euphemism for wealth, at a gut level that makes Obama's wealth irrelevant.
Dec '11
Re: The Persuadables
I think that there is a strategy that can appeal to Hispanic voters but I don't think that a "serious pro-life" message will do the trick. Unlike Black voters, I think that Hispanic and other ethnic minority voters could be [Dr. Evil pinky to corner of mouth] "persuadable?". (I especially feel this is the case with Asian voters who seem to be more or less ignored by candidates.)
As to what message would resonate, I have no idea. But I think it has to be more than putting Rubio or Jindal on the ticket to truly have an impact.