The Perfect Little Storm
Barack Obama has a gift. He tells us so himself. But, as I have noted more than once in the past, Gift is the German word for poison; Barack Obama is a Gift to his party that keeps on giving; and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are, as they say, gifted as well. Perhaps even more so than our tinpot Messiah
Consider the latest news. As everyone by now knows, if nothing is done within the next two weeks – and in the two years that have passed since the Democrats gained an overwhelming ascendancy in both the Senate and the House nothing on this matter has been done – the taxes of all American taxpayers still employed will go up dramatically in the new year. In principle, of course, the Democrats would welcome such a tax increase, especially as it applies to the upper middle class. But they know that it would be most unwelcome. Some of them are aware that it would be likely to hamper our recovery from the recent recession or even occasion a double dip. And none of them want to be blamed.
They are, of course, aware that, if they fail to act, the situation can and will be rectified in January when the Republicans take over the House and gain greater leverage in the Senate. But, if this were to happen, the Republicans would not be able to act in time to prevent an increase in the money that employers are required to withhold from the January paychecks of their employees.
Mindful of this fact and aware that the employees whose paychecks are docked in this fashion will be miffed, Barack Obama gulped, swallowed his pride (albeit not without bitter complaints), and earlier this week negotiated a deal with the Republicans in Congress. Under the terms of that deal, the tax cuts introduced by President Bush will be extended through 2011; the inheritance tax for fortunes under $5 million will be eliminated; on fortunes above that number, it will be set at 35%; payroll taxes will be temporarily reduced; and for some unemployment benefits will be extended for thirteen months. Here is what, CNN reports, Barack Obama said about the compromise earlier today:
There is an important debate on Capitol Hill that will determine in part whether our economy moves backward or forward. The bipartisan framework we have forged on taxes will not only protect working Americans from seeing a major tax increase on January 1, it will provide businesses with incentives to invest, grow, and hire.
Every economist I have talked to or read over the last couple of days acknowledges that this agreement would boost economic growth in the coming years and has the potential to create millions of jobs. The average American family will start 2011 knowing that there will be more money to pay the bills each month, more money to pay for tuition, more money to raise their children. But if this framework fails, the reverse is true. Americans will see it in smaller paychecks that will have the effect of fewer jobs.
Now thanks to Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in Congress, this deal appears to be coming apart – for the House Democratic caucus has voted to urge the Speaker not to bring the deal to the floor of the House for a vote. “The vote,” CNN explains, “comes a day after Vice President Biden made clear to House Democrats behind closed doors that the deal would unravel if any changes were made.”
Ordinarily, when a political party suffers an historic defeat – as the Democrats did in November – the Senators and Congressmen in that party acquiesce in the decision of the voters and, at least temporarily, adopt a posture of accommodation. In time, they know, the other side will stumble, and the voters will change their tune. Then, and only then, can they afford to be politically aggressive. Barack Obama may not like this, and he may not fully appreciate what is involved. But he knows better than to breathe defiance in the face of a political shellacking of the sort that has been administered to his party. Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in the House do not have a clue.
The earthquake that took place on the first Tuesday in December should have elicited from her an announcement that, in January, she would retire from the leadership of her party in the House. Absent that, the Democrats in the House should have replaced her. And they certainly should not now obstruct the passage of the deal negotiated with the Republicans on their behalf by the President. It is not the Republicans whom they are defying. It is a President from their own party, and it is the voting public – and come late January, when their paychecks are diminished, millions of Americans are going to be furious.
On Christmas eve, 2009, William Daley – former Secretary of Commerce in the Clinton administration and brother of the mayor of Chicago – issued a warning to his fellow Democrats in the pages of The Washington Post. As I reported at the time, after alluding to the announced retirements of four centrist Democrats in the House and to Parker Griffith’s switch to the Republican side, Daley argued that “the Democratic Party — my lifelong political home — has a critical decision to make: Either we plot a more moderate, centrist course or risk electoral disaster not just in the upcoming midterms but in many elections to come.”
The political dangers of this situation could not be clearer.
Witness the losses in New Jersey and Virginia in this year’s off-year elections. In those gubernatorial contests, the margin of victory was provided to Republicans by independents — many of whom had voted for Obama. Just one year later, they had crossed back to the Republicans by 2-to-1 margins.
Witness the drumbeat of ominous poll results. Obama’s approval rating has fallen below 49 percent overall and is even lower — 41 percent — among independents. On the question of which party is best suited to manage the economy, there has been a 30-point swing toward Republicans since November 2008, according to Ipsos. Gallup’s generic congressional ballot shows Republicans leading Democrats. There is not a hint of silver lining in these numbers. They are the quantitative expression of the swing bloc of American politics slipping away.
Griffith and the Democrats who have decided to retire were, Daley said, “the truest canaries in the coal mine.”
Were I a Democrat, and had I been a member of the Democratic caucus in the House, I would have read those prophetic words out loud at the meeting today. Thanks to Nancy Pelosi and her supporters, the Democratic Party has not only received a shellacking; it is cruising for a further bruising.
Were I John Boehner, I would put my feet up on my desk and pour myself a tall one, and, were I Mitch McConnell, I would dig in my heals. No deal, I would say, and nothing, apart from a continuing resolution quite limited in duration, goes through the Senate.
But, of course, I am not John Boehner. Nor am I Mitch McConnell. And so I will pour myself a Scotch and once again express my gratitude to Frank Rich, Paul Krugman, Keith Olbermann, Rachel Maddow, and the other left liberals at MSNBC and in the blogosphere who have so stirred up the hard-left core of the Democratic base as to bring pressure on the Democratic caucus in such a manner as to produce this godawful mess. Not even Rush Limbaugh with Operation Chaos has done the Republican Party such good.
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Comments :
Dec '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
I completely agree with your assessment, Dr. Savage. Especially the part about pouring a "tall one."
I realize this was a small and passing comment in your post, but every single time I hear (or even think about) the term "death tax" my blood boils. The fact that there are actual human beings who think the saved earnings of another human being belongs to them (via the government) is sickening to me. It really is.
As a pastor I hear "covetousness" dripping from the term death tax. As an American I hear "socialism." As a rational, thinking person I hear "theft."
Sorry for the mini-rant, but I don't think we mine the depths of illustration for how ludicrous (and I would say immoral) many positions held by the Left truly are that things like the death tax offer us. When you really try and wrap your mind around the death tax you cannot help but find yourself ready to Party with Tea.
May '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
Paul A. Rahe:
Mindful of this fact and aware that the employees whose paychecks are docked in this fashion will be miffed, Barack Obama gulped, swallowed his pride (albeit not without bitter complaints), and earlier this week negotiated a deal with the Republicans in Congress.
....
Barack Obama may not like this, and he may not fully appreciate what is involved. But he knows better than to breathe defiance in the face of a political shellacking of the sort that has been administered to his party.
Perhaps. Obama has never before exhibited a traditional willingness to acknowledge political reality and compromise. It will take more than one such event to convince me that the office has changed him to the point that typical expectations of American politicians apply.
I hope you're right that the short-term pain caused to economy by the Left's undead looneys will work out for us in the long-term.
May '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
R.J. Moeller:
I realize this was a small and passing comment in your post, but every single time I hear (or even think about) the term "death tax" my blood boils. The fact that there are actual human beings who think the saved earnings of another human being belongs to them (via the government) is sickening to me.
What the Left fails to acknowledge is that such money was already taxed... when it was earned.
Corporate taxes are another form of double taxation. First, employees are taxed as a collective (the corporation). Then they are taxed again as individuals.
Dec '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
Great point, Aaron. I should've clarified that. It has already been through the bureaucratic spanking machine once, and now they come back for more because you're dead. And according to the likes of Claire McCkaskill...it's not your money anyway, so why are you complaining?
Oct '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
I agree the Democrats seem to be committing political suicide, but I think it is way too early to celebrate. The Left has a powerful megaphone in the media and academia and the class warfare argument will always be with us. The Republicans will have to continually advance better ideas and successfully convince the voting public that policies which emphasize personal responsibility rather than dependency on the state are more likely to lead to a happier and more satisfying life. This is really the right time to have the debate on what tasks government should be doing based on what we can afford.
Nov '10
Re: The Perfect Little Storm
This brings me back to Pat Caddell's arguments on the Ricochet podcast a few weeks ago: The Republican party and the conservative movement need to be making our case much, much better to the country. It's ridiculous and awful and a crime that no one is out there letting people know what we believe, in a positive way. At no time in recent history would our message have fallen on such a receptive public, and we are throwing our opportunity away.
(And, by the way, why can't someone on the Right hire Pat Caddell and harness his energy and wisdom on our side?)