The Obamacare Decision Pool
Waiting for the Supreme Court to rule on Obamacare and the individual mandate does, I'll admit, raise a good deal of tension in this health policy fellow's life. So much work to be done. So much hangs on the balance of this one opinion, for the future of the nation and the scope of government.
What's there to do but make a wager on it?
If you'd like to participate in the Obamacare Decision Pool, leave a comment below which includes:
- The number of votes, one way or the other.
- The outcome of the decision.
For number 2, you may suggest a total uphold, a total strikedown, or a partial strikedown. But if it's the last, you must be specific about what goes: is it the individual mandate only? The mandate plus guaranteed issue and community rating? My own opinion, as I've expressed before, is a 5-4 Title I strikedown. A messy decision could be the end result.
Oh, and it wouldn't be a pool without something to win. So I will put up a copy of The Federalist from 1886, published by T. Fisher Unwin. (You may have to wait a bit, as it is shipping from overseas, but I have a similar edition myself, and it is superb.) Those who guess correctly will have their names thrown into a hat, and one picked out at random to receive an emblem of their prognosticating triumph.
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Comments:
Jun '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
Penalty vs tax upheld.
Rest struck down 5-4, due to impracticable severability. The logic will be that without the mandate, if you leave guaranteed issue in place people will only get insurance once they are sick. That would pretty much either destroy the insurance industry or make it so expensive no one could afford insurance. That combination also makes reliable community rating and the MLR provisions impossible. So rather than 9 justices trying to figure out what could be workable and leaving a mess, they'll kick the remainder back to Congress. While legally parts might be severed, logically it cannot.
They'll just say it in a lot of legalese.
I've never been more anxious to see a decision.
Edited on June 27, 2012 at 8:19pmOct '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
A 6-3 smackdown.
The whole law will be struck down.Post Comment
Feb '12
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
Let me just say a word of encouragement: 6-3 to uphold is the fashionable pick because it makes Washington insiders sound smart.
The 6-3 to uphold mantra gives professional pundits something to talk about other than simply the conservative/liberal divide on the Court. It makes them sound nuanced, and savvy, like they're divining something from an oracle, hidden under the pond by the Washington Monument.
This healthcare law simply is not analogous to Rhenquist in revisiting Miranda. Miranda placed an extra burden on government, and in fact expanded the rights of citizens (for good or ill). This case is not about burdening the government, but burdening the people, and one doesn't switch a vote simply to be the guy who writes the opinion that forever enables the government to subjugate a people in so wicked a fashion as this so-called healthcare law (it's really a health-insurance law).
The fact that so many people are picking 6-3 to uphold is cause for confidence. It's like when your neighbor buys an Internet stock. Time to get out.
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
Via Twitter, Philip Klein says: "I'll predict 5-4 to strike down mandate & 6-3 to strike down guaranteed issue/community rating but keep rest."
Apr '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
I'm going with 5-4 to scrap the whole shebang.
Please Justice Kennedy.... don't fail me now!
Jan '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
I expect 5-4 to strike the entire law. I am stockpiling cigars and scotch in any event.
Mar '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
A 5–4 decision striking down the individual mandate, guaranteed issue, and community rating.
Apr '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
6-3 to uphold in total.
Oct '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
7-2 total uphold.
Sep '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
I'll take the long shot.
5-3 strike it all down. Kagan recuses herself.
May '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
I'm taking the way, way outside -- They hold it over to the next term for some crazytown reason or another.
Apr '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
Mark Belling Fan: I'll take the long shot.
5-3 strike it all down. Kagan recuses herself. · 2 hours ago
If a judge recuses, they do it before the argument.
Sep '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
6-3 total strikedown. Yes, I know that's extremely optimistic, but the Chief Justice has shown himself in the past to be very effective at building consensus.
Apr '12
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
7-2 to up hold.
Jun '11
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
6 - 3 strikedown of the mandate with the Wise Latina surprising everyone.
Jun '10
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
The entire law will be struck down, 5-4.
Jun '12
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
I'll make my Inaugural Ricochet Comment with a prediction so nuts that you'll know to ignore me from here on out.1. The vote is 4:2:3. That is, 4 votes to strike down the mandate, and all of ACA with it. 2 votes (Kennedy and–I told you I was nuts–Ginsburg) to strike down the mandate, and the rest of Title I, but leave the rest of the ACA standing. 3 to uphold ACA in its entirety.) Which means:2. Title I goes, the rest stays, including the Medicaid provisions. Nobody's completely happy, but some are happier than others...
Edited on June 28, 2012 at 10:22amMar '12
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
Entire law goes down, 5-4.
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
5-4 decision on mandate with Title I falling, also 5-4.
Jan '12
Re: The Obamacare Decision Pool
5-4 Total strike-down. Multiple reasons, but the biggest that I think Obama has known for weeks and has been behaving accordingly.