The Next Man
Republicans have a habit -- stretching back over 40 years -- of nominating the "next guy in line" for president. Sometimes that works out pretty well -- the Reagan who ran in 1980 had been honed by his brief 1976 attempt to win the nomination from Ford. Sometimes, not so much, cf. McCain, 2008. There are always dark horses and out-of-left-field names in the mix, but in the end, the Tired Old Party usually picks the Next In Line.
Right now, though, there are two Next In Lines, according to Republican tradition. There's the guy who ran for the nomination last time and lost -- that's the Reagan 1980 model -- and is called the "front runner." That's Mitt.
And there's another Next In Line. That's the guy who ran on the losing ticket last time. That's Sarah Palin.
Frankly, neither one of them has what 2012 is going to be asking for.
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Jun '10
Re: The Next Man
On paper, I like Mitt version 3.0. But will I like version 4.0 as well? Don't know. I generally like people who get it right earlier in life, and don't have to keep revising.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Tend to agree, especially Mitt, his deep association with Mass health care debacle and unwillingness to admit mistake makes him non starter to this codger. Dismantilling the spending baked in since 2007, will need straight talkers.There are several ways Romney could make Mass healthcare a teachable moment and gain stature, but hes stuck on stupid.
Re: The Next Man
I was partial to Mitt 1.0. There's too much Al Goreness afoot, now. Calling the START treaty Obama's most hideous foreign policy blunder of all time isn't quite at the level of growing a weird beard, but it still reinforces an impression Mitt seems unable to avoid: that of zagging out to rhetorical extremes in order to create a (false) sense of durable conviction.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Was George W Bush the Next Man?
I'm thinking it will be time, in 2012, to nominate a governor from a normal State. Being a Texan, however, I'm sure that as usual you people will have it decided long before I cast a primary vote.
Jun '10
Re: The Next Man
mesquito: Was George W Bush the Next Man?
I'm thinking it will be time, in 2012, to nominate a governor from a normal State. Being a Texan, however, I'm sure that as usual you people will have it decided long before I cast a primary vote. · Jul 25 at 8:46am
Being a Pawlenty fan, I find your "normal state" provision unfairly limiting. :)
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Oh, I dunno, etoiledunord. Minnesota gets "qualified, probationary Normal" status from me. But mostly because I'm Norwegian.
Re: The Next Man
mesquito: Was George W Bush the Next Man?
I'm thinking it will be time, in 2012, to nominate a governor from a normal State. Being a Texan, however, I'm sure that as usual you people will have it decided long before I cast a primary vote. · Jul 25 at 8:46am
Hmmm. Maybe George W. wasn't quite the next man. That was quite a fight. But he did seem like the establishment party choice.
But you're right, mesquito, there is a problem with the system. People who live anywhere but the early primary states have trouble influencing the choice.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Huckabee could have a stronger run this time around. Starting his own show on Fox was a smart move. I'd prefer not to see any of the old faces, but you're probably right that one of them will win the ticket.
My worst nightmare is a repeat of last time... and James's poll is not reassuring. The conservative vote might be evenly split again, leaving some obliviate to stroll in unopposed.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Has Haley Barbour signed up for Weight Watchers yet?
Next, next, next in line is Huckabee and he has as any many problems as Romney, Palin, Gingrich, etc.
There's no one on the horizon, in my opinion. I like what I've seen of Pawlenty and Daniels, but do they have what it takes to beat Obama and the MSM, who will be wounded but relentless even after the challenge by Hillary? I don't think so.
Re: The Next Man
Well, I'm on the record: I'm a Mitch Daniels man. Flinty, smart, witty, from a "normal" place. I think America is ready for that kind of leader. He may not be running, of course.
I guess what I'm really describing is a candidate who is an active conservative -- someone, say, who really has cut taxes; who has taken on the teachers' unions; who has run something in a demonstrably conservative way; someone with some political and media savvy. And someone who can articulate those issues, who can out-argue the left, someone who, during the presidential debates, won't have us all on the edge of our seats hoping something stupid doesn't come tumbling out.
Why does that seem so impossible?
May '10
Re: The Next Man
George W. Bush was sold two ways: To moderates it was "Hey! He's George Bush II! Remember the kindler, gentler Reagan!" To conservatives it was, "Yeah, but he's more Texan than his father! Look, he defeated Ann Richards!"
Mitt's selling point has always been, "Look, a Republican that win in Massachusetts!" But that's not that big a novelty post-Scott Brown.
Huckabee is trying the Reagan radio approach with his FNC show, but can the GOP sell a conservative Baptist Minister?
May '10
Re: The Next Man
It would be nice if the Republicans could nominate someone that doesn't get cast in the role of "the boob" early in the process. Both Daniels and Pawlenty seem capable of fulfilling that promise. Romney? Just not so sure -- he has trouble coming across as a real person -- at least to those of us that have never met him personally.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Rob's ManCrush on Chris Christie is coming through!
Jul '10
Re: The Next Man
Please don't let it be Romney, Palin, or Huckabee. I like all three of them, but just not as presidential candidates.
My top choices would be Mitch Daniels (Calvin Coolidge incarnate), Tim Pawlenty, or Chris Christie. I know less about Mr. Pawlenty, but from what I have heard, I like him a lot.
Re: The Next Man
Why are we ruling out Newt?
May '10
Re: The Next Man
He had his moment and let it pass. He is deeply polarizing, so instead of discussing issues, you end up discussing all the detritus of his past career. He is subject to the criticism of going backward to failed policies rather than moving forward. He also happens to be old and look old. And most importantly -- he's an inside-the-beltway-guy. To have a chance at defeating Obama in 2012 you need to elect someone that has actually run something (you know other than a think tank or 501c.) Americans elect Republican governors for a reason -- they seem to know how to get stuff done.
Re: The Next Man
Wait, I'm unclear: are you saying that Pawlenty and Daniels might look like rubes? Or that they wouldn't? Because I can easily see either one of them running very very strong, and sounding very very smart. The reason I'm so high on both of them is because for once in a long time, we'd have a candidate we want to talk to the press, who we'd relish watching mixing it up with the left wing media, rather than what we've had in the past.
May '10
Re: The Next Man
Last election, the votes seemed to go as follows:
Giuliani -- foreign relations and defense
Romney -- economy
Huckabee -- social values
Thompson -- grumpy, hardline conservatives
Paul -- Libertarians
McCain -- the leftovers
I didn't list Palin, but she seems to be associated most with social values and Libertarian ideas. And, let's be honest, she also wins a lot of votes simply for being an attractive woman and a semi-normal mom. She's less popular with city-slickers who don't appreciate her colloquialisms, nor her lack of multiculturalism or political polish.
Candidates who choose to return will probably be indentified with the same basic values and types of voters (determined by what values they emphasize most). Paul's Libertarian base has strengthened, but there aren't enough to win without him being the leftovers candidate, and Palin would share his trough. Romney will lose votes for Romneycare but gain votes as our economy continues to falter. Huckabee will gain votes if he keeps up the pastor persona (calm, patient, kind) while the others bear the brunt of media stress. Palin will steal votes from every category for being the Tea Party candidate.
There's my prediction. :)
Re: The Next Man
Newt's an idea man. The presidency is all action. Negotiation. Charm. Threats. All of it. And none of those qualities are part of Newt's toolbox. He's a great thinker and writer, but as CEO he'd be a colossal failure.
Jun '10
Re: The Next Man
Smart as he is, I don't see Newt "Samsonite" Gingrich being able to do it. He would spend every minute of the campaign (primary and general) justifying--and convincingly so, I'm sure--his long paper (and video) trail. It's not fair, but that's just how it is.