The Newest Whitman Polls....
...are actually encouraging. From the latest pollster memo:
A quick update: tight CA Governor's race is moving toward Meg Whitman.
As of last night, in two separate tracking polls conducted over the last 72 hours, the race is now tied in one poll and Meg leads by +1 in the other. Among early voters who say they have already cast their ballots, Meg Whitman is leading by 3 points.
Field is a good poll. But it was taken from 10/14 to 10/25 and missed this movement. GOP intensity, seen in early vote returns, is very high.
This is a tight race and while the public polls are down, most were taken a week or more ago. CA trend looking more and more like rest of US, despite blue state status. Brown has been stuck for months around 45%, looks like undecided voters are now moving toward Meg.
These polls also showing Meg's favorable rating rising every night, while Jerry Brown's unfavorable rating now at highest we have ever measured. Meg also leading with older voter and voters projected as most likely to vote.
Both polls reflect a Democratic party advantage of 6-8 points. The 2006 election day exits showed 6 point spread. We believe it might even be closer this year.
Make of this what you will. I'm encouraged by three big metrics: 1) Jerry Brown can't get his numbers above 46%; 2) Whitman's numbers keep growing; and 3) Whitman's up +3% with early voters.
So, it could happen.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Wow, didn't see that coming. That Paul Rahe is pretty smart--like, psychic smart.
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Heard on KFI news today that Brown had double digit lead...newsreader pointedly added that poll was conducted by Pat Brown Foundation.
Jun '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Rob Long:
Both polls reflect a Democratic party advantage of 6-8 points. The 2006 election day exits showed 6 point spread. We believe it might even be closer this year.
This is the problem with polls in this election. The historical spreads could very easily be, and likely are, way off.
If Whitman wins it will likely be because turn-out skews Republican, as is likely will.
Oct '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
For somebody from the Midwest, I just can't grasp how Jerry Brown (or Boxer) are even in the running. I know California is a blue state, but I generally operate under the assumption that most people have a degree of common sense.
But hey, go Whitman.
Oct '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Perhaps the Golden State may yet be saved. My 94-year-old grandmother in Santa Barbara (a staunch Republican) would certainly be pleased.
Oct '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
I can't believe Brown's new add comparing Whitman's banal political statements to Ahnold's banal political statements. ALL politicians make banal political statements, Jerry. And there are more differences between Ahnold and Meg besides a Y chromosome and an Austrian accent.
By contrast, Whitman's ads must have been slam dunks to write. I'm sure it has been incredibly easy to make ads to run against someone who has already been governor. I would be surprised she's not running away with it except for it being CA and all. It's encouraging to see polls swinging back her way.
PS: Go Giants - I can say that, right?
Jul '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
The fact that Jerry Moonbeam Brown is even leading(!) the polls bodes ill for CA.
Oct '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Andy Freeman: I can't believe Brown's new add comparing Whitman's banal political statements to Ahnold's banal political statements...
By contrast, Whitman's ads must have been slam dunks to write. I'm sure it has been incredibly easy to make ads to run against someone who has already been governor... · Oct 28 at 10:37pm
Don't get your hopes up too high. Whitman has no core beliefs, no political soul, and she has followed The Ruling Class's conventional positions (and then some: review her pathetic YouTube performance praising Van Jones).
Beating Gov. Moonbeam should have been doable if not a a slam dunk, even given how many voters have come of age since he left office. But the ineptness of Whitman's campaign reflects her shortcomings.
If she does win, I hope she doesn't cave the way the Governator has. Today, Meg offers no hope of becoming the Left Coast's echo of Chris Christie.
Maybe Carly can pull out her win, but her campaign has simply never lit up.
I hope my pessimism proves ill founded and way off base.
Aug '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
chadn737: I know California is a blue state, but I generally operate under the assumption that most people have a degree of common sense.
But hey, go Whitman. · Oct 28 at 9:59pm
I am extremely ideological and also not very good at deciphering polling data or picking horses: the kind that neigh that or the political that do not nay enough. But I lived and worked in the Bay Area for nine years and also happen to have learned a tiny bit about California politics--despite myself. It is deceptive, I believe, to say that California is a "blue state." It was--during my residency there--basically a red state with coastal blue spots and behaved very much like an electoral see saw. Meg Whitman is, in my opinion, not the person who can reach California conservatives. That is my optimistic and pragmatic side. My ideological side says that she should not be the person to win. I am well practiced at holding my nose and voting for bad Republicans. Whitman's positions on homosexuality, abortion and illegal immigration are so twisted that it would be better for a Democrat to get the blame for implementing such destructive policies.
May '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
While Meg's gubernatorial acumen is questionable, Jerry's is not. He is a proven incompetent. The only explanation for his strength that I could come up with was a mega conspiracy where Soros backed elites where trying to drive the state into total disrepair. At the end everyone would flee to other states, creditors would go bankrupt and said elites would scoop up the land for nothing and recreate a paradise.
My nutty projection is not much more crazy than reality.
Perhaps the new polls are correct and sanity will prevail.
May '10
Re: The Newest Whitman Polls....
Maybe a bit off topic but as I absentee voted in NYC on Friday due to a sudden business trip, I just wanted to share how good it felt to vote even if the candidates are not perfect. Hey, I voted for Paladino, you guys can vote for Whitman & Fiorina.