The Limits of Occam's Razor
Earlier this afternoon it started snowing in my neighborhood, and about five minutes later, the power went out. Power outages are pretty common in Istanbul, especially during inclement weather. I check Twitter on my cellphone--yes, everyone in Istanbul is reporting power outages. Nothing to be done, I think. I figure I'll get in bed with a book and a flashlight and take an afternoon nap.
A while later I wake up. The power is still out. Now I'm annoyed. It's dark outside, I need to work, and my cellphone battery is running low. The candles are an earthquake emergency supply, and this doesn't count as an emergency, so I decide to curse the darkness rather than light one. I wonder how long it's going to be until the power comes back on. I feel bored. I lie in bed for an hour, staring sullenly at the ceiling.
Finally, I decide to get up and go for a walk, even though it looks nasty out. I figure I'll take my computer to a hotel with a generator. I get all bundled up, and then I notice something odd: The lights are on across the street. That building doesn't have a generator, I think. Or did they get one?
Wait--they're on inside every apartment up and down my block.
I establish fairly soon that in fact, the power is not out in my neighborhood at all. There's been electricity in my neighborhood all afternoon. The fuse just happened to blow in my basement exactly as the snow started falling and the power went out in every else's neighborhood. I'd been lying there in the dark for hours entirely thanks to my skillful use of Occam's Razor.
I still stand by it as a pretty good rule, though. Most of the time.
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Oct '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
I hesitate to argue in contradistinction to your thesis, Lady Claire. However, you misapplied the concept in that you failed to generate any alternative hypothesis to explain your circumstances. And you did not attempt to collect enough data to validate your initial conclusions. In short, you fell victim to your preconceived notion of reality without empirical validation. My sympathies to you, oh Queen of the realm of Ricochet
Mar '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
The power may have failed, or even just flickered, at your location too. When it came back on, a surge could have blown the fuse, or perhaps some other people in your building flicked lights or appliances on during the outage and the increase in the load took the fuse out when power was restored.
The Imps of Perversity just loves them some Occam's Razor. They dance on it all the time.
Dec '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Occam's Razor is not a rule. It's an observation about how the world works most of the time.
Humans are always looking for shortcuts to make decision-making easier and quicker. This is why the early years of Sesame Street featured the game "One of These Things":
One of these things is not like the others
One of these things just doesn't belong
Can you guess which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
The educators behind the game understood that making snap judgments is a vital life skill. Our distant ancestors made up "rules" like "green fruit will make you ill, but red, yellow or orange fruit is good to eat." That satisfies Occam's Razor: the simplest rule for fruit is to look for a color that signifies ripeness in most species.
Dec '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Unfortunately, in our modern era, life skills aren't as important as political correctness. The modern Sesame Street game is:
Three of these things belong together,
Three of these things are kinda the same.
Can you guess which things belong together
By the time we finish our game?
And the child sees four objects that can be grouped in different ways to ensure "nobody" is left out: for example, a brown shoe, two brown boots, and a black boot. Bob (or whoever's singing the song) then explains that you could group the three boots together, or the three brown items together. That way, everyone belongs!
Sep '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
I sympathize but agree with the Good Berean. It reminds me of a story in which Calvin Coolidge was on a train and one of his aides, looking at a farm they were passing, remarked that the sheep in the pasture had been sheared. Coolidge: "Looks like it from this side."
Sep '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Occam's Razor comes with rechargeable batteries.
May '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Perfect!
Jun '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Are you serious???
Stuart Creque: Unfortunately, in our modern era, life skills aren't as important as political correctness. The modern Sesame Street game is:
Three of these things belong together,
Three of these things are kinda the same.
Can you guess which things belong together
By the time we finish our game?
And the child sees four objects that can be grouped in different ways to ensure "nobody" is left out: for example, a brown shoe, two brown boots, and a black boot. Bob (or whoever's singing the song) then explains that you could group the three boots together, or the three brown items together. That way, everyone belongs! · Jan 14 at 10:31am
Nov '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
So yeah, this is a misapplication of Occam.
The thing I thought of when I read this was
"Correlation is not causation."
Aug '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
During Hurricane Georges the power never actually "went off" in New Orleans. The power supplier, Entergy, just turned it off and then left town. When Georges skipped New Orleans those of us who stayed picked up a few tree branches, ran through our liquor supply, and wished we had cold beer. Then we discovered that the power was still on for Maple Street next to Tulane, whose power wasn't turned off. So we had lights and pizzas and cold beer.
At one point one of my neighbors corralled an Entergy truck. The guy confessed he was just an office worker and knew nothing about electricity but had been instructed to drive an Entergy truck around so it looked like they were doing something.
Then? The icing on the cake: there was an election and I was waiting outside the Notre Dame seminary where I voted and saw a couple of fire trucks and a big bus pull up and park across the street. Guys hopped off the bus and started throwing gear on to the fire engine.
Turns out that not only Entergy had left and gone to Jackson, Mississippi. So did the fire department.
Nov '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
I realize this isn't a theological blog posting, but it's worth mentioning Edward Feser's blog post on Occam's Razor. The way the term is often used (e.g., most conspicuously by the late Christopher Hitchens) betrays a certain distortion of Occam, and indeed the term itself didn't come into use until the 19th Century for positivistic reasons.
Dec '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Claire --- Any thoughts on the latest spengler column at asia times on turkey's financial problems and a coming collapse?
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NA10Ak01.html
Is there any evidence in daily life in turkey that shows goldman is on the right track?
tim
Oct '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Would I be too much of an engineer were I to suggest that when the power goes out one should first establish the scope of the outage?
These all require different interventions. I recall on several occasions in the dark times I spent in the San Francisco bay area and everything went dark all around seeing the lights across the Bay and thinking, “Still, the lights are on in Oakland”.
Nov '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Claire,
Occam's razor is the law of parsimony. All it says is think the simplest answer unless and until presented with evidence to the contrary that once presented causes you to alter your hypothesis. It just took you too long to be presented with evidence to the contrary mostly because you were happy with your conclusion. You were kinda enjoying your misery. Me, the first thing I do when the power goes out is look out the window.
:-)
Edited on Jan 14 at 11:57amAug '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
If we're throwing out Occam's Razor, then I'd like to suggest the possibility of feline assassins trying to freeze you out.
Dec '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Dave Molinari: Are you serious???
Stuart Creque: Unfortunately, in our modern era, life skills aren't as important as political correctness. The modern Sesame Street game is:
Three of these things belong together,
Three of these things are kinda the same.
Can you guess which things belong together
By the time we finish our game?
And the child sees four objects that can be grouped in different ways to ensure "nobody" is left out: for example, a brown shoe, two brown boots, and a black boot. Bob (or whoever's singing the song) then explains that you could group the three boots together, or the three brown items together. That way, everyone belongs! · Jan 14 at 10:31am
Jan 14 at 11:10am
Absolutely. In fact, I think they may have dropped this segment entirely in recent years because of the obvious stupidity of thinking that constructing groups on the basis of common traits is any different from excluding individuals based on differences.
The sad thing is that discrimination is a vital life skill that lets individuals operate in a complex environment by making snap judgments that are right most of the time. Otherwise analysis paralysis would consume us.
Aug '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
"Ockham's razor" is a wonderful tool for determining the "first test" you perform to determine cause. If that test is insufficient, you move onto the next test, etc. One ought start from the simplest explanation because it is the easiest to falsify, not think that he simplest explanation is the explanation. It is just the place to begin investigation.
Test simplest first, then move forward. It's a way to use inductive reasoning in a manner that harnesses the power of deduction asPost Comment well.
Mar '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Nah. Not for me, anyway, but then again I'm an engineer too. I already think like that.
A few months ago, the power went out at 3:30 AM. The lights were out, but then at 3:30 they are supposed to be out; however, the alarn clock/radio was out too. I tried to get back to sleep ... no soap. I looked out the window, and everyone's lights were out. Since I usually wake up around 4:30 anyway, I got dressed and went out for breakfast. The street lights were out. The traffic lights were out. A few miles up the road, a traffic light controller and an SUV had come to grief directly under a transformer, with a power company truck parked next to a cop car.
Now, I don't know what happened, at least not to a degree that would keep David Hume off of my back, but I think I can make a pretty good guess.
Aug '11
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
Christopher Hitchens did nothing that wasn't conspicuous.
Nov '10
Re: The Limits of Occam's Razor
OT: Claire, your piece on Thatcher appeared this morning in the Winnipeg Free Press. Perhaps not strangely, I felt more "connected" than usual. Thanks Ricochet, the world was a little smaller today.