The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
In his Salon op-ed, "One and a half cheers for American decline," Tom Engelhardt applauds the notion that America is deteriorating both at home and abroad:
So here's the good news: it's actually going to feel better to be just another nation, one more country, even if a large and powerful one, on this overcrowded planet, rather than the nation. It's going to feel better to only arm ourselves to defend our actual borders, rather than constantly fighting distant wars or skirmishes and endlessly preparing for more of the same. It's going to feel better not to be engaged in an arms race of one or playing the role of the globe's major arms dealer. It's going to feel better to focus on American problems, maybe experiment a little at home, and offer the world some real models for a difficult future, instead of talking incessantly about what a model we are while we bomb and torture and assassinate abroad with impunity.
Hope for American decline is the foreign policy expression of the liberal desire for an enforced radical egalitarianism and a government of equality of result at home: the U.S. abroad learns to stop being the nail that stands up and is pounded down to resemble all the others, in UN fashion. Neutralism abroad, statism at home, the US as the EU. Ok—sounds familiar, but facts get in the way.
Even in the worst recession since the Great Depression, 300 million Americans still produce three times the goods and services of 1 billion Chinese, a society that has a rendezvous with environmental clean-up, unionism, suburban blues, an aging populace, a disastrous one-child policy, wary and increasingly angry neighbors, and the contradictions between affluence and lack of personal of freedom. The EU is imploding and worried about a hesitant US that traditionally once had allowed the EU to assume its pretensions under a US military umbrella. The EU experiment reminds us that Greece is no more the model for the world than is a bankrupt state like California one for the United States. A post-petroleum world will radically weaken Russia and the Middle East. In contrast, our singular constitution, values, freedoms, and meritocracy, if left intact, ensure that the United States can easily retain its position of global authority. Decline is not a fate, but a choice, or rather a series of insidious choices on the road to serfdom.
The odd thing is that the Obama corrective for our supposed hubris is already imploding. Trillion dollar stimuli and borrowing did not restore the economy, and as the architects of that policy have now mostly fled, and as the Democrats who voted for Obama's agenda mostly don't want to run on it, Obama himself will have to learn how to entice the engine of American commerce back again—or destroy the Democratic Party with further statism. His foreign policy of "Bush did it" is in shambles. A Mutallab, Maj. Hasan, and the Times Square plot reminded him why, after demagoguing national security, he kept open Guantanamo, expanded Predators and seems to like renditions. The only thing that has changed is that violence in Afghanistan is on page 10 when in Iraq it headlined, Hollywood is making no more movies like Rendition, Salon is not talking about the Guantanamo Gulag, and Michael Moore is no longer writing paeans to "Minutemen" insurgents. I haven't seen a vero possumus presidential seal lately either, and well over half the country is convinced that the downturn was made worse, not better, by borrowing $3 trillion from our grandchildren in the last 20 months.
Our policies toward the Middle East, China, Japan, Europe and India have already quietly dropped the soft-power preachiness, and are returning to those of the mid-2000s, apparently in the concession that the world's dangers both predated and transcended George W. Bush. Ahmadinejad appreciated the President's silence when his goons clubbed Democracy protestors, liked the apologetic videos we sent, but somehow still tells the world we planned 9/11 and Israel will soon cease to exist.
A soon to be nuclear Iran, an imploding nuclear Pakistan, an ascendant and increasingly bullying China don't give a damn whether or not American elites envision or welcome American decline; as in the 1930s, such authoritarians have an agenda, the confidence to see it through, and will stop only if, as in the past, in the 11th hour the Western liberal democracies rise to convince them otherwise. Once upon a time a number of relieved isolationist Americans, circa 1939, pointed to the Depression, the vain hope of the New Deal to get us out of it, the dead-end of capitalism, and told the world, thank god, that we could not afford to worry about Hitler, Mussolini, or Tojo, given our own economic decline and years of poverty to follow. But the latter three dictators found us anyway, even when we were not looking for them—and in response, a broke and pessimistic America in four years somehow was producing more goods and services than the world combined. Declinism is as old as the United States, as popular among elites who reap the benefits of a capitalist free America as it is rare among those who do far less well, but have far more hope for their childrens' futures.
We forget why after 1945 the United States assumed the burdens of creating a global system of free trade, open commerce and alternatives to Soviet-imposed communism—we alone had the power, economic and military, to rebuild Europe, stop the spread of Stalinism and establish pretty much the globalized world as it has come to be. If we choose to nationalize the economy and ruin it, as Britain did theirs in the 1950s, and if we choose to let the Milosevics, Saddams, and Ahmadinejads do as they please, we don't just get on with our merry lives, happy to stay home, spread the wealth, and watch the world go by. Others will have a say—just watch.
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Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
It doesn't matter whether it is better, as long as it feels better.
May '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Victor, which countries do you think might use Obama's next two years in office to expand their regional influence?
I hear that Putin is ready to stop pretending he's not the one in control of Russia. Does he have the will and the means to seize another former Soviet territory?
Does China's military build-up signal any specific intent?
Is there any reason to think North Korea's upcoming heir, Kim John Un, will have plans beyond his own borders?
In other words, assuming that war does not break out in the Middle East in the next couple years, what sort of foreign challenges might our next President (hopefully Republican, and not an isolationist) face?
Sep '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Presumably he would like us to be disarmed like the Britain of 1930 but even the Britan of 1913 was unable to avoid the entanglements that led to war. The thought of trying to place his view into any historical context reveals its stupidity.
Jul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
a) What he said
b) I learned long ago that there is no such thing as not making a decision, no such thing as quiet neutrality. By adopting such poses all you do is cede leadership to someone else, someone who gets to define what the future will look like. I look around at the same world as does Mr. Hanson. I do not see anyone out there that I would trust to define what our future will look like.
That yahoo in Salon is in essence saying "No, we are not the best last hope of earth. And I like it that way". (shudder)
Jun '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
What some Americans don't understand is, there are billions of people in the world who see the United States as a star that's already risen and fallen. The only question for them is, who'll lead the industrial world next? China? India? It's not clear yet, but if a billion or more people start to believe something, it's hard to fight that tide. America's economic influence in the world can end just as quickly as it began.
Sep '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Thank you, Mr. Hanson. I've had the pleasure to read many of your essays, but none were better than this one.
At what point will the Europeans come begging at our door to save their collective posteriors again? Is it possible that China will liberalize itself? Is there anyone out there, post Obama, who will be willing to stand up with us and stop the tyrants of the world?
What happened to the idea that America is that shining city on the hill? I still believe we can be that nation once again, I'm just not so sure we have the will or a majority to make it so.
Edited on October 1, 2010 at 11:21pmJul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
The only problem with this declinest bilge is that they are plagiarizing 1978 in a very over the top way. The brink of doom climatology industry, the Federal loan guarantee for Chrysler, the Ehrlic declinism. As if doing it louder and more transparently corrupt was the cannot fail strategery they overlooked last time. Milton Friedman, Julian Simon, Mr. Reagan, please phone the office.
Jul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
First, great piece as always.
Second, not for nothing, but could you please capitalize God, you know, out of respect for those of us who do believe?
Jun '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Thank you Prof. Hanson. What a priviledge we at Ricochet have to receive what is nearly a private essay. Your warning, dour as it may be, should be broadcast from speakers on our tallest buildings for all Americans to digest, like the call to prayer in Muslim societies. I don't believe Americans are ready to accept our fall. We have been slumbering while the left has feverishly been eating at our foundations. They are termites and locusts and their negativity must be exterminated. I think I'll have another cup of TEA.
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
I think the pattern will be regional adjustments, marked by local provocative acts akin to the fishing trawler incident between Japan and China, or increased overflights of the Aegean by a more muscular Turkey or pressure on the former Soviet Republics. Things like that. The general mood abroad is that the U.S. either does not have the financial wherewithal or military clout anymore to keep regional order, or perhaps might even sympathize with legitimate readjustments. Something like this happened in 1979 (Chinese invasion of Vietnam, Soviet inroads in Central America and Afghanistan, hostage taking in Teheran, fall of the Shah and fear of radical Islam, etc.), and it required a frantic and often sad effort by Carter ("Carter Doctrine," rescue attempt imploding in the desert, resignation of Vance, boycott of Olympics, etc.) to correct the impression abroad established from his sermonizing in 1977-8. Everything is in flux now, and it will take Hillary to discover that tensions predated and transcended Bush and then in turn tutor Obama on that fact of life that simply was not supposed to be true. Unfortunately we are still in a hope and change/I'm the laureate mood, in which Obama believes his singular charms and atypical heritage appeal direct to the masses of the world, and will flip them in the sense that they will have no desire to embarrass such a rarely sympathetic President.
Edited on October 1, 2010 at 11:20pmMay '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Thanks. I have a few other questions, if you don't mind.
If Republicans win control of the House, what effect, if any, might that have on military spending and foreign policy during Obama's term? If we also win control of the Senate, might the outcome be any different?
Also, what changes do you anticipate in regard to the focus of our military infrastructure and resources in the next 5-10 years?
Lastly, are we becoming too dependent on electronic technologies? Disruption of our satellites from solar flares, for example, is inevitable, though perhaps not imminent. Would such an event not encourage nations with cruder technologies to use the situation to their advantage?
Sep '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
As VDH has noted, I think Hillary is the one to watch and she's going to turn out to be the advisor scorned when she takes a run at him in 2012, knowing his foreign policy naivete.
May '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Engelhardt is writing his usual "The Nation" stuff. Yawn.
Decline will be a conscious choice, as Charles Krauthammer put it in that speech. That is, of course, Mr. Obama's policy.
May '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Decline is a choice, but not only a present choice. Past choices, our own and of generations past, also shape our future. It's difficult to discern how strongly our past decisions bind us to our present path.
May '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
A different quote from the Salon piece:
"In the wake of 9/11, that "twenty-first century Pearl Harbor," the new crew in Washington and the pundits and think-tankers surrounding them saw a planet ripe for the taking."
Those last six words - "a planet ripe for the taking" - represent such a lazy conspiracy theory that any sane points Engelhardt might make are totally invalidated. He gives no serious consideration to what dangers would arise with the decline of American power, because American power is the greatest danger. No wonder he cheers our decline: the imperial America of Engelhardt's imagination is a scary place!
Jul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
You know the more I think about it, the decline is not a choice, it's an inevitability.
Sep '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Jason Hart: A different quote from the Salon piece:
Those last six words - "a planet ripe for the taking" - represent such a lazy conspiracy theory that any sane points Engelhardt might make are totally invalidated. He gives no serious consideration to what dangers would arise with the decline of American power, because American power is the greatest danger. No wonder he cheers our decline: the imperial America of Engelhardt's imagination is a scary place! · Oct 1 at 4:24pm
Those words sound like something Al Gore would say in his Old Testament style fulminating -- I guess that's how they pat themselves on the back and tell their grandkids that they rolled back the big neocon conspiracy.
Jul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Rumor has it that John Bolton is considering a run in '12. If nothing else, he'll sure enliven the foreign policy portions of the debates. And he isn't one to hold back on expressing his ideas. St. Hill will have to respond to issues he raises in her debates on the Democratic side (her opponents will make certain she has to) -- and won't that be fun to watch!
Aug '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
Hillary running for president is an interesting proposition. In order for her to succeed however, I think certain strategic conditions have to be met.
1. The November elections have to shock the Democrat party to the core. Evidence that is has will be the admission of a significant proportion of Dems that the election was a referendum on Pres. Obama.
2. Something antithetical to core Dems (either domestically or internationally) must occur to give Hillary moral cover to to resign on principle. I am thinking something that will invigorate so-called "Scoop Jackson" Democrats and help them acquire new converts. This cover can be the barest of fig leaves but it must be real.
3. These conditions have to be met before the primary season gets too far underway... A more politically savvy person than me has to answer the timing question.
That is enough to challenge Pres. O, but to win in 2012, Hillary needs the assistance of the GOP.
Jul '10
Re: The Liberal Embrace of American Declinism
I'm still waiting for the historical antecedents that describe the global powers that have lived through eternity. Perhaps I'll wait as long.