The Latest Poll
Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning. Like the CNN poll cited in my post this morning, this one -- a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll -- is based on a likely voter screen. It shows the race tied with each candidate drawing 47% of the votes:
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
The poll also asked voters which party they would prefer to control the Congress. Democrats were favored there. A slim plurality of likely voters said they preferred that Democrats win enough seats to control the House and keep hold of the Senate, a positive sign for the party five weeks out from the election.
In assessing the poll, you should take note of the presumed ethnic and partisan turnout. It is weighted on the presumption that the partisan divide will be almost identical to what it was in 2008 and that the same will be true for the ethnic divide. In my judgment, neither is likely. The electorate is apt to be closer to that of 2010. In particular, the partisan weighting makes no sense. The year 2008 was an outlier in that particular, and in 2010 there was no partisan divide.
If you were to readjust this poll by reducing slightly the black turnout and by a bit more the Hispanic turnout and if you were to assume a much closer partisan divide of the sort shown by, say, Rasmussen, Romney would be ahead by a comfortable margin -- which is what I take to be the case.
Keep this in mind -- for it may be the last snapshot you get of the results of this campaign prior to all hell breaking loose. David Axelrod and those who have run Barack Obama's campaigns have a way of unleashing damaging revelations about his opponents at crucial moments in the campaign. Obama himself has, however, never been on the receiving end. But, in a few minutes, if the Drudgereport can be trusted, Sean Hannity on Fox will play a tape of Barack Obama delivering, in the presence of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, a racial tirade well worthy of that notorious bigot. We are, for the first time, about to meet the real Barack Obama.
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Nov '11
Re: The Latest Poll
I watched the whole video. It was nice to hear candidate Obama mention Jesus Christ - I guess the theocracy is already upon us. It was also nice to hear him talk about "media elites" - I assume it's trenchant and cool when he says this phrase, while it's paranoid and conspiratorial when Newt Gingrich says it.
My favorite part is when he says
Forward!
Sep '12
Re: The Latest Poll
You can hear the roots of Michelle's crusade in that speech: parents don't know how to feed their kids, they need government instruction and oversight.
Jun '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Eeyore vs. Rahe, Round....another.
The Obamazombies did not come out in 2010. They will be back this year. They dropped the black percentage points by 2: 13-11. That seems reasonable, but that could be +/- 1 off. That seems where they are accounting for much of the Obama enthusiasm lag this year. The number of '08 black voters who come back is key.
They dropped the Latino vote percentage by 1: 9-8. I don't know why. The registration in this demo has been solid, and there are more of them. The rate of immigration has dropped off with the bad economy, so that may be why.
The Tea Party was fired up in '10, but many of the Ozombies who stayed home in '10 will be back, so I don't think the '10 breakdown is accurate.
Where the turnout lies twixt '08 and '10 is the answer.
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 6:33amApr '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Edward Smith: I found the accent he put on to be insulting. Obama is not a natural Drawler and when he drops his g's it still feels condescending.
That said, any Black voter likely to be offended by him putting on that phony accent is probably not a likely Obama voter anyhow. · 2 hours ago
Allow me to second these comments. More offensive than the pandering words were the phony mannerisms Obama adopted for a black audience. It would be comical in any other context. This is our president? How did it come to this?
May '10
Re: The Latest Poll
The latest tape, while offensive for its embarrassing condescension, will not turn away any Obama supporters. A tape could surface of Obama calling for white folks to be skinned alive and it wouldn't cost him a single vote. He's just bulletproof, thanks to the cool kids in the media and the growing dependent voter class who drink in what they're told, and vote accordingly. We will be very lucky to limit him to one term.
Apr '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Unfortunately I agree that this type of video will make little difference. Remember the overhyped "bombshells" that were released by Brietbart.om a few months ago? Neither does anyone outside the conservative blog bubble.
Remember when this was going to be an epic clash of ideas, with Romney/Ryan leading a substantive crusade? Well, Romney has been either inept or invisible, they've allowed Ryan to be defined as the guy who lied about his marathon time (although he didn't help himself with that "the math is too complicated" line on Sunday) and for the past month the top issue among conservatives has been endless analysis of the intricacies of poll sampling.
Right now it looks like the best we can do is pray that Kennedy and Scalia can hold on for another four years.
Apr '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Oh, one additional note of pessimism.
1) If this video is actually seen widely, it may actually fire up some radical blacks who agree with what is being said and were previously unenthused about Obama.
2) As previously mentioned, the narrative will be that Republican are desperate and "up to their old tricks" trying to stir up racism by portraying Obama as an "angry black man." If MSM outlets report on the video they will be very selective in the clips they choose. So, the undecided voter who picks up fleeting impressions will simply pick up the "Republicans are racist" meme without ever seeing the actual video.
Not this this video is needed to push that meme. They'll have PACs during the final week bombarding minority areas with dire calls to stand with Obama against attacks by those slimy racist Republicans, which I fear could push minority turnout close to 2008 levels.
Apr '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Regarding the chances of the 2012 voter profile being closer to 2008 or 2010 there is this:
"This is the first time in Black church history that I am aware of, that Black pastors have encouraged their parishioners not to vote, " Rev. Jamal-Harrison Bryant of Baltimore told The Washington Informer. Bryant has formed the Empowerment Network, a national coalition of about 30 denominations working to register African-American parishioners. Bryant, too, opposes same-sex marriage and stated that Obama's endorsement of marriage equality is "at the heart" of the problem for black Christians."
Jun '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Viator: Regarding the chances of the 2012 voter profile being closer to 2008 or 2010 there is this:
"This is the first time in Black church history that I am aware of, that Black pastors have encouraged their parishioners not to vote, " Rev. Jamal-Harrison Bryant of Baltimore told The Washington Informer. Bryant has formed the Empowerment Network, a national coalition of about 30 denominations working to register African-American parishioners. Bryant, too, opposes same-sex marriage and stated that Obama's endorsement of marriage equality is "at the heart" of the problem for black Christians." · 24 minutes ago
Exactly.
Anyone who thinks 2012 turnout among blacks will be the same as 2008 is deluding themselves. They were down in 2010, and Obama's gay marriage stance will keep them away this year.
Jul '12
Re: The Latest Poll
I thought the National Journal poll seemed a bit dubious, as it has the race tied at 47% and that makes it a bit of an outlier. I'm not sure if the breakdown of 36D, 29R and 30I are meant to state the sample of the poll. If so, a 47% tie on a D+7 poll is rather encouraging.
The Obama tape will surely result in cries of Republican racism. I don't see it losing Obama or Romney any votes that they can already count on. As far as Undecideds are concerned, I truly think this will damage Obama slightly. Hopefully that is enough.
Jun '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Indeed. If they have to oversample by 7 to get Obama even, he's in big trouble... as evidenced by their "Romney's garbageman" ad.
That's what both sides are fighting for now: the undecideds. And I think the usual outraged cries of "racism" will turn even more undecideds against Obama.
Sep '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Don't have much knowledge about poles, but one thing Obama seems to know how to do is win elections. He beat the Clinton machine and given the power of incumbency the chances of him losing to, what appears to be, a disjoint Romney effort are slim.
Jun '12
Re: The Latest Poll
You just keep on believing that.
Lefty complacency is to Romney's advantage.
In fact, please believe that Obama is so sure to win, you can sit home on Election Day and not bother to get out of your La-Z-Boy.
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 3:04pmMar '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Paul Rahe: "Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning."
Real shot at winning? You promised a landslide and we'll settle for nothing less. Don't go all wobbly on us now.
Nov '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Romney's line has been that Obama is a nice guy who is over his head. Nice guys don't try to drum up hatred between people, much less lie to do it.
Re: The Latest Poll
Barack Obama never beat the Chicago machine. He lost when he ran against the approved Congressional candidate. He won only when he joined the machine. Michelle's father was one of the machine's ward bosses.
Re: The Latest Poll
Illiniguy: Paul Rahe: "Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning."
Real shot at winning? You promised a landslide and we'll settle for nothing less. Don't go all wobbly on us now. · 5 hours ago
Worry not. To win a landslide one must be tolerably well position at the beginning of October. Romney is. That was my point.
Re: The Latest Poll
The difficulty Romney faces is that so many of those who voted for Obama felt good about themselves because they helped elect the first black President. He has to get them to vote for him this time, and it is very hard to get people to admit to themselves that what they did was really stupid. What you describe is Romney's attempt to get around this. "I understand why you voted for him, and I respect it. But he is in over his head."
You and I and Romney and Ryan know better, of course.
Apr '11
Re: The Latest Poll
The 2010 comparisons are pointless. We all know that midterm elections are skewed towards the most dedicated partisans and generally favor the party out of power. History suggests a midterm landslide says little about the following presidential contest (ex: 1948 and 1996).
Frankly, I find it depressing to watch normally astute conservatives engaged in such magical thinking. I understand that we don't want to discourage Republican spirits, but we also don't want to give the Romney campaign a false security that everything is just dandy.
Jun '12
Re: The Latest Poll
True, to a point, but there is absolutely no chance that 2008 turnout will happen again. Look at all the groups Obama has turned off:
There will likely be fewer of these people voting for Obama, whether they just stay home or vote for Romney.