The Last Man Standing
Brian Ward ·
Jan 3 at 9:21pm
Separated at Birth, Rick Santorum winning the 2012 GOP Iowa Caucus (non-Romney Division).
And Steven Bradbury winning the 2002 Olympic gold medal in the 1000m short track speed skating event.
Playing the supporting roles of the guys doing the self-generated pratfalls, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich.
Congratulations Rick, you're two more implosions away from the nomination.
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Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
(cross-posted yet again)
Rick Santorum now has to see if he can move the needle appreciably in South Carolina and Florida. New Hampshire is too soon and too close to Romney's adopted home state of Massachusetts to be the test of Santorum's momentum. But South Carolina and Florida ought to be friendly territory for a "full-spectrum conservative" like Santorum, so if he can gain vote share in those states, he's on a good trajectory.
Gingrich is polling strong in both those states, and he's not going to cede them easily to Santorum. It seems like it's rapidly turning into a three-prong race: Romney, Paul, and a battle for the third spot on the stage between Gingrich and Santorum.
Romney still hasn't demonstrated that he can add the former supporters of anti-Romney candidates to his own base of support. If Santorum and Gingrich end up in a two-man race to split 65 percent of the GOP vote, one or even both will end up with more than Romney's 25 percent share.
Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
Oh, and per my theory above, Santorum is only ONE implosion away from the nomination. If Gingrich implodes and Santorum becomes the lone remaining non-Romney-non-Paul, he may inherit some 55 to 65 percent of the primary vote, with Romney at 25 to 30 percent and Ron Paul at 10 to 15.
Romney need not implode to lose to Santorum (or Gingrich, if Santorum implodes). Romney simply has to fail to win over the people who so far have refused to warm up to him.
Dec '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Rick Santorum travels around Iowa for 250 days, kissing enough corn-fed evangelical behind to garner 29,000 caucus votes and suddenly he's the front-runner?
This is an insane process.
Jun '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
This post is a cheap shot and not worthy of a Ricochet contributor. The fact is Rick Santorum campaigned through 99 Iowa counties to win the caucus. To suggest he won by default is just . . . graceless. We'll know in time if he can win the marathon, but for now at least give credit where it's due.
Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
Nobody's Perfect: Rick Santorum travels around Iowa for 250 days, kissing enough corn-fed evangelical behind to garner 29,000 caucus votes and suddenly he's the front-runner?
This is an insane process. · Jan 3 at 9:39pm
Apparently Santorum was the only one paying attention to how the process works.
Of course, there's the part where Romney just can't get more than a quarter of the GOP primary electorate excited enough to vote for him.
Jun '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
You might not like the process, but every candidate plays by the same rules. It's not perfect, but it's far from insane.
Jan '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Okay. But the video analogy was funny; therefore...
Dec '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Of course, there's the part where Romney just can't get more than a quarter of the GOP primary electorate excited enough to vote for him.
I'm no Romney supporter. I just feel that giving a tiny slice of Iowa voters the power to elevate anyone to front runner status is ridiculous. After all, Mike Huckabee took 34% of the caucus in 2008. In 1988, Bob Dole took 37%, with Pat Robertson coming in second at 25%.
Any state that could take Pat Robertson seriously as a presidential candidate deserves nothing but derision.
Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
Nobody's Perfect: Of course, there's the part where Romney just can't get more than a quarter of the GOP primary electorate excited enough to vote for him.
I'm no Romney supporter. I just feel that giving a tiny slice of Iowa voters the power to elevate anyone to front runner status is ridiculous. After all, Mike Huckabee took 34% of the caucus in 2008. In 1988, Bob Dole took 37%, with Pat Robertson coming in second at 25%.
Any state that could take Pat Robertson seriously as a presidential candidate deserves nothing but derision. · Jan 3 at 10:00pm
I'd suggest that Iowa does not pick nominees: it filters out candidates who are not ready for the business of winning a nomination.
After all, neither Huckabee nor Robertson won the nomination.
Apr '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Stuart Creque
Nobody's Perfect: Rick Santorum travels around Iowa for 250 days, kissing enough corn-fed evangelical behind to garner 29,000 caucus votes and suddenly he's the front-runner?
This is an insane process. · Jan 3 at 9:39pm
Apparently Santorum was the only one paying attention to how the process works.
Of course, there's the part where Romney just can't get more than a quarter of the GOP primary electorate excited enough to vote for him. · Jan 3 at 9:46pm
No one has. Romney has gotten more voters excited enough than anyone (except maybe Santorum: Count the dang votes, Clinton precinct W2P2!).
Your assumption that the ABR candidate gets all non-Romney votes is based on an assumption that Romney is no one's second choice. Polls seem to suggest, however, that he is the most popular second choice.
One of the real questions for South Carolina will be who wins 4th place in New Hampshire. If Iowa costs Newt anything and gets Santorum a five point boost (which seems reasonable to me), Newt will have come 4th and 5th in the first two races, with Santorum coming 1st and 3rd or 4th.
Apr '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Stuart Creque: (cross-posted yet again)
Romney still hasn't demonstrated that he can add the former supporters of anti-Romney candidates to his own base of support. If Santorum and Gingrich end up in a two-man race to split 65 percent of the GOP vote, one or even both will end up with more than Romney's 25 percent share. · Jan 3 at 9:29pm
I can think of several examples of former ABR supporters who have moved towards Romney on Ricochet alone. Can you not think of any?
Apr '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Thank you, voters of Clinton W2P2! Romney by 14!
Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
James Of England
Stuart Creque: (cross-posted yet again)
Romney still hasn't demonstrated that he can add the former supporters of anti-Romney candidates to his own base of support. If Santorum and Gingrich end up in a two-man race to split 65 percent of the GOP vote, one or even both will end up with more than Romney's 25 percent share. · Jan 3 at 9:29pm
I can think of several examples of former ABR supporters who have moved towards Romney on Ricochet alone. Can you not think of any? · Jan 3 at 11:39pm
He's going to need several million, not several.
Dec '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
James Of England
No one has. Romney has gotten more voters excited enough than anyone (except maybe Santorum: Count the dang votes, Clinton precinct W2P2!).
Your assumption that the ABR candidate gets all non-Romney votes is based on an assumption that Romney is no one's second choice. Polls seem to suggest, however, that he is the most popular second choice.
One of the real questions for South Carolina will be who wins 4th place in New Hampshire. If Iowa costs Newt anything and gets Santorum a five point boost (which seems reasonable to me), Newt will have come 4th and 5th in the first two races, with Santorum coming 1st and 3rd or 4th. · Jan 3 at 11:14pm
Newt's still at 37 percent in South Carolina (vs 21 for Mitt) and 35 (vs 28) in Florida.
If Iowa has hurt Newt and his mid-thirties fall, the key will be whether the shift accrues to Mitt's benefit or to Santorum's.
Then there's the question of where Perry's supporters will go, and later where Bachmann's and Huntsman's will go.
And Iowa conceivably may hurt Mitt by proving him vulnerable.
Apr '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Stuart Creque
James Of England
Stuart Creque: (cross-posted yet again)
Romney still hasn't demonstrated that he can add the former supporters of anti-Romney candidates to his own base of support. If Santorum and Gingrich end up in a two-man race to split 65 percent of the GOP vote, one or even both will end up with more than Romney's 25 percent share. · Jan 3 at 9:29pm
I can think of several examples of former ABR supporters who have moved towards Romney on Ricochet alone. Can you not think of any? · Jan 3 at 11:39pm
He's going to need several million, not several. · Jan 3 at 11:59pm
Sure; just noting that there's a reason Intrade has him at 85%, with the remainder spread between the other 4 contenders. It's hard to imagine him picking up much more in New Hampshire; he'll be the dominant winner, but will settle for that. Newt isn't going to pick up many ABR votes either. In SC and FL, he should pick up a few ABR votes, but in February, he'll defeat all comers, and suck up a lot of them.
Apr '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Stuart Creque
Newt's still at 37 percent in South Carolina (vs 21 for Mitt) and 35 (vs 28) in Florida.
If Iowa has hurt Newt and his mid-thirties fall, the key will be whether the shift accrues to Mitt's benefit or to Santorum's.
Then there's the question of where Perry's supporters will go, and later where Bachmann's and Huntsman's will go.
And Iowa conceivably may hurt Mitt by proving him vulnerable. · Jan 4 at 12:07am
From July to a week ago, Romney was going to lose the Iowa caucus. You think that winning it makes him look vulnerable? Do you mean vulnerable in New Hampshire? To who? Vulnerable in SC and FL? How would that be different to his previous vulnerability in those states? Vulnerable in NV, MI, etc? Those questions would return us to the New Hampshire question of who might reasonably hope to make a contest of it.
You'll note that no one on Ricochet's prediction threads who used numbers predicted nearly as good a result vis a vis Newt as took place, and few thought it would be that good positionally.
Edited on Jan 4 at 1:11amJan '11
Re: The Last Man Standing
Hey, lay off Steve Bradbury - the bloke's a rolled-gold legend! Plus, Rick Santorum would have to do the same thing 3 more times to get close to Bradbury's performance.
Aug '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
Very apt comparison I would say.
This has got to be the craziest primary EVER! Newt's ascension a mere 5 weeks before the Hawkeye Cauci was too soon; Santorum goes from 5% to 25% in like 10 days.
You truly can't make this stuff up...
Jul '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
Romney vote count 2008: 30,021
Romney vote count 2012: 30,015
I'm no Rick "Compassionate Conservative" Santorum supporter either. There is nothing in his record to suggest he will do anything about the economy if he is elected President. He voted for the two biggest entitlements before ObamaCare.
To lift from Jonah Goldberg about "Compassionate Conservatism":
Sep '10
Re: The Last Man Standing
So now that Santorum is a threat, how long before Romney runs out an ad campaign telling everyone that Rick starts each day by torturing a kitten?