The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
In George Will's latest column he gives conditional support to the McConnell plans (on grounds that it would make Obama own the economy, the debt, and the spending even more than today). I'm not so sanguine, but another part of his column caught my eye:
"Richard Miniter, a Forbes columnist, is right: 'Obama is not the new FDR, but the new Gorbachev.' Beneath the tattered banner of reactionary liberalism, Obama struggles to sustain a doomed system. Democrats' dependency agenda is buckling under an intractable contradiction: It is incompatible with economic growth sufficient to create enough wealth to feed the multiplying tax eaters."
I agree with Will and Miniter. Sooner or later (and later won't be long), entitlement reform will have to be undertaken. With a bad economy (that won't get materially better anytime soon), a decent but descending fertility rate (as compared to Germany, Russia, and Japan: which are already in the population loss death spiral), a day will soon come, if we don't have the political will to make the reforms when we are able to design them, that we will be forced into an emergency austerity mode that will cause entitlement reform under circumstances with few options other than to just slash them.
Obama may think he's winning the future. But, like Gorbachev, he's really presiding over an unsustainable system. All of the maneuvering, demagoguery, tax hikes, blah blah blah cannot sustain the unsustainable.
If we want to to rationally deal with entitlements, we need 3/3 of the government. And 2012 is our best chance.
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Jan '11
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
... precisely because of the entitlements. I agree entirely.
The collapse is coming, it's predictable, and it's avoidable ... but not with the current Clown Convention at the White House.
Jun '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
KC Mulville
... precisely because of the entitlements. I agree entirely.
The collapse is coming, it's predictable, and it's avoidable ... but not with the current Clown Convention at the White House. · Jul 23 at 9:25am
I thought clowns were supposed to cheer you up (though, when you look at them, I'm not sure why).
May '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
Gorbachev didn't kick communism into high gear on the verge of its collapse. Obama is more like FDR, but without the aristocratic roots and with even less respect for America's history.
Steyn posted an article today on the "inevitability" of reform.
Jun '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
Aaron Miller: Gorbachev didn't kick communism into high gear on the verge of its collapse. Obama is more like FDR, but without the aristocratic roots and with even less respect for America's history.
Steyn posted an article today on the "inevitability" of reform. · Jul 23 at 10:07am
I agree that Obama wants to be another FDR (and is doing his best to imitate him). I think the Will/Miniter point is that, if he's reelected (I cringe at the thought), there will come a point when economic necessity will turn him into a Gorbachev. Because our current entitlements can't continue, they won't continue, and someone will have to oversee the retreat.
Oct '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
no campaign has won running on entitlement reforms yet. david cameron did not run with this platform.
Jun '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
I don't think it's just the clowns in the White House, nor is it just entitlements. The clowns in the congress have at least as much responsibility. Administrations change but the problem just keeps getting worse.
The system doesn't need tweaking, it needs a major overhaul. Entitlements and taxes. Everyone knows it, no one wants to do it. Social security change isn't difficult, Set up a new system, grandfather the old, an in a generation the problems take care of themselves without violating anyone's trust.
Taxation with exception does not work. The tax code is so complex God Almighty couldn't figure it out. Knowing this, our lawmakers absolutely refuse to do anything that might fix the problem.
Our politicians have forgotten, nay, they've never believed they serve the people. They serve the party at the expense of the people.
I would not think it was possible that Obama could win in 2012, but every time he fouls up, our folks conspire to outdo him. I'm beginning to think he'll win by default.
Jan '11
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
... ♫ Don't bother ... they're here ♫
May '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
tabula rasa
.... there will come a point when economic necessity will turn [Obama] into a Gorbachev. Because our current entitlements can't continue, they won't continue, and someone will have to oversee the retreat.
Gorbachev did not oversee successful reform. The communist government collapsed. What we are set to witness on our present course is not the collapse of the entitlement state, but of the state itself.
Widespread recognition and acceptance of reality (the unsustainability of entitlements and unrestrained spending) is not inevitable. If Obama really cares about sustaining American government as it is (with lip service, at least, to the Constitution), he is likely to fail as Gorbachev failed.
Obama has demonstrated no fear of further debts and entitlements.
Dec '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
FDR got us out of the depression by getting us into WWII. Gorbachev reformed the communist system through collapse. Which is the better choice?
Mar '11
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
My fear is that, when facing the financial abyss, Americans... who by now are used to Uncle Sam being a sugar daddy... would choose socialism over any real reform or return to founding principles. In fact, as long it isn't called socialism, Americans have jumped at new government programs in the past century. The liberals expected that we'd eventually get used to it... and addicted to it. And I think maybe they're right. My mother forwarded an email that's making the rounds right now. It's an angry outburst against reforming entitlements.
"Don't dare call my Social Security "entitlements!" I PAID for it!" goes the email. No mention of the fact that even adjusted for inflation, on average people get back four times what they paid into it (one of the reasons it's in the shape it's in).
I just despair of ever seeing Americans become hardy and independent again. I think too many of us have decided that slavery is fine as long as the cell is comfy and we get our checks on time.
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
Herbert Hoover might be a better comparison. He laid the foundations for the New Deal with the Reconstruction Finance Cooperation and the raising of taxes, and he brought his party down at a time when it was dominant as never before.
Dec '10
Re: The Inevitability of Entitlement Reform: Obama as Gorbachev
I agree with most of the comments here that the tax structure and entitlements are huge problems. But I get frustrated that conservatives don't speak to the overarching problem of the role of the federal government. Is it just too complex and nuanced an argument to make?
Isn't it apparent Big Government invites Big Corruption? And not just corruption on the part of bureaucrats, legislators and judges. The people themselves become corrupt when they're given something for nothing. Why is this such a difficult argument to make? Why aren't more people convinced that, if giving unearned goodies to foreigners is bad, it is equally bad to give unearned goodies to citizens?
Why should there be a federal Department of Education? Aren't parents and legislators in the states interested in having their children educated? Same for the environment, workers, etc. Don't the states have the clearest interest in seeing to the welfare of these people and things?
We could fix the spending problem right now -- today! -- if we lopped off these illegitimate functions of the federal government. I suspect we're not talking about it because we know it will never happen without a collapse.