The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I hate to make all of my posts about polls, but it is worth noting the latest Battleground poll from Ed Goeas and Celinda Lake. The headline is that Barack Obama has retaken the lead over Mitt Romney (49-48, with a 3% margin of error), but if you go four paragraphs in, you find this:
. . . the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.
The story goes on to say that Hurricane Sandy may impact early voting–where the president has a lead over Romney. Now, it ought to go without saying that I am not happy that Hurricane Sandy has risen her ugly head over the horizon -- and it ought to go without saying that whatever the outcome of the election, anyone who wants to vote ought to be able to do so. But it also ought to go without saying that there is a dramatic difference in intensity between Obama and Romney voters, and that difference favors the challenger. And if Hurricane Sandy does indeed impact early voting negatively, that difference could be multiplied in Romney’s favor.
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Sep '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I get your mixed feelings about Hurricane Sandy. I feel kind of guilty myself about the fact that I hope that Friday's jobs report is terrible.
Edited on October 29, 2012 at 6:28pmApr '11
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Whatever Obama loses in early votes can be offset by the fawning press coverage he will get. You will see plenty of photo-ops of him touring disaster sites and being caring and compassionate. Also, Mitt has now cancelled all of his campaign appearances today and tomorrow, when we need to be building up momentum. Sandy is a disaster for us. In purely political terms (tacky, I know) I would have much preferred a clean, completely conventional final week.
Sep '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I'm going to start calling you w. "the sky is falling" martin
Jul '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Michael Hinton
I'm going to start calling you w. "the sky is falling" martin · 18 minutes ago
wmartin strikes again!!!!
Jun '10
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I am no fan of early voting. Early voters miss out on too much information. In Ohio, early voting started before the first debate. I am not in favor of low-information voters. Period. Universal voting means the encouragement of low information voters to go to the polls. What sense does that make?
I am old school. If voting is important to you, get to the polls on election day. Sandy will be all over by then anyway, so this year Sandy would be no excuse if all voting were again on election day.
Apr '11
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Michael Hinton
I'm going to start calling you w. "the sky is falling" martin · 46 minutes ago
Much better to be fatalistic than to have your hopes crushed.
Jun '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
wmartin
Michael Hinton
I'm going to start calling you w. "the sky is falling" martin · 46 minutes ago
Much better to be fatalistic than to have your hopes crushed. · 1 minute ago
Someone else seems to believe Romney will lose.
Doesn't it feel good to agree with him?
Sep '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I prefer to make a prediction based on the evidence, not hope that my pessimism will bring on my desired result. If I thought the data was pointing to a Romney loss, I would be right there wallowing with you. I was a couple weeks ago. Then I decided to stop hanging on every wannabe polster parroting what they thought was the least controversial result, and look at the fundamentals.
1.) Romney is crushing Obama among independents, in every poll.
2.) Gallup and Rasmussen have much more to lose if they are wrong, and have a track record that suggests they know what they are doing (and they agree.)
3.) The enthusiasm gap is real, in the data, and anecdotally.
4.) Romney is campaigning like a winner and Obama like a loser. They know something.
Edited on October 29, 2012 at 8:40pmApr '11
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Michael Hinton
1.) Romney is crushing Obama among independents, in every poll.
2.) Gallup and Rasmussen have much more to lose if they are wrong, and have a track record that suggests they know what they are doing (and they agree.)
3.) The enthusiasm gap is real, in the data, and anecdotally.
4.) Romney is campaigning like a winner and Obama like a loser. They know something. · 7 minutes ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
Everything you say is true (except some Ohio polls and Colorado poll show Obam taking indies). But I can't just nitpick every poll in the swing states-he has got to start coming ouy ahead in some of them (and some of the new polls seem to be trending back Obama's way).
Either way, I am an emotional wreck right now and will be until we know the outcome. It doesn't help that Gallup has now suspended polling until the storm passes.
May '10
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
I'm with David Carroll: early voting is an atrocious idea which, it seems to me, will permit more shenanigans and fraudulent skullduggery. There is absolutely no reason why every eligible voter should not be able to go to a polling place and cast their ballot, on the same day as every other eligible voter. It really is that important.
Oct '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Anything that suppresses voter turnout will benefit Romney so of course you want to put up barriors (and hurricanes) that will do this. Rich you mention "shenanigans and fraudulent skullduggery". Can you provide any evidence that early voting does this? Early voting favors minorities, inner city poor, working moms and other folks who may not be able to make it to the polls on Tuesday. Of course you don't want these Dem supporters to show up. Can the GOP win on merits instead of these bogus fraud claims that justify suppressing voters?
Sep '12
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Why do you think so little of the poor and minorities? Do you think they are incapable of acquiring proper ID and bringing it with them to their polling place? (Considered a "barrier")
Let's assume there is no fraud. Aren't you for a simple verification system to ensure the integrity of elections to put people's legitimate fears to rest? Voter ID laws have strong support among the electorate.
Early voting means the electorate is made of people with different amounts of information. If a scandal breaks near election day, the people who have voted can't change their vote.
Apr '11
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
If you don't have the foresight to plan for a one-time event that is scheduled years in advance, the country is probably better off without your vote.
May '10
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
Hmmm...
Well, Pig Man, I understand what you are saying; perhaps I should have said it this way: I am suspicious of any voting mechanism which could be subverted and used to perpetrate election fraud. This includes any mechanism which allows voting before election day, including absentee ballots, the use of which should be very closely watched and carefully handled.
I have read enough of Avi Rubin (a computing sciences professor who has written extensively about electronic voting systems software) to make me suspicious of anything that takes voting too far outside the traditional, verifiable paper ballot which is cast on election day. Please note that Rubin's concerns, if memory serves, were with the end-to-end integrity of the entire voting process, the entire system, if you will. Nothing distinctively Republican or Democratic in anything he said/wrote; he was non-partisan through and through.
So, I'm trying to look at it through a "conservative-with-a-small-c" lens: I'm not interested in denying anybody the franchise, and I'm vividly interested in practices and systems which will preserve the franchise for everyone.
Re: The Highlight of the Goeas/Lake Battleground Poll
No one, of course, said anything about wanting to put up barriers to voting. I know I certainly didn't. You'd think that someone who paid for the privilege of commenting on Ricochet would bother to make the most of his/her money by actually telling the truth.