I hate to make all of my posts about polls, but it is worth noting the latest Battleground poll from Ed Goeas and Celinda Lake. The headline is that Barack Obama has retaken the lead over Mitt Romney (49-48, with a 3% margin of error), but if you go four paragraphs in, you find this:
. . . the GOP nominee maintains a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Sixty percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 73 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 9 points, 53 to 44 percent.
The story goes on to say that Hurricane Sandy may impact early voting–where the president has a lead over Romney. Now, it ought to go without saying that I am not happy that Hurricane Sandy has risen her ugly head over the horizon -- and it ought to go without saying that whatever the outcome of the election, anyone who wants to vote ought to be able to do so. But it also ought to go without saying that there is a dramatic difference in intensity between Obama and Romney voters, and that difference favors the challenger. And if Hurricane Sandy does indeed impact early voting negatively, that difference could be multiplied in Romney’s favor.