The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
On the Ricochet podcast just now, Mickey Kaus, our favorite Democrat, said, a) that he's hearing that Democratic professionals see the races here in California as a lot closer than most public polls suggest, and, b) that Dianne Feinstein, the senior Democratic senator from California, as much as confirmed this just yesterday. Really, I wondered. Really, Mickey replied. Just Google on it.
Which I did. From the blog of the San Francisco Chronicle:
In the not to be missed category, Sen. Dianne Feinstein stepped way out of the spin cycle yesterday, as she is often wont to do.
Feinstein was at a campaign event for Sen. Barbara Boxer in San Jose,and was asked by KTVU's Randy Shandobil how things were going, and she replied, "bad."
Feinstein is Boxer's campaign co-chair.
Shandobil asked whether Feinstein meant in the House, which Democrats are widely expected to lose, and Feinstein didn't answer. Later, after the event, she (un)clarified this much: "I think the prevailing view is, and I don't think this is necessarily correct, is that it's a very difficult time, there's no question about that."
Boxer is locked in a toss up with Republican Carly Fiorina. Although an LAT poll over the weekend put Boxer ahead 8 points, most other polls, including internal GOP polls, show Fiorina about a point behind.
Oh, what a beautiful mornin'.
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Comments :
May '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Is there something specifically Oklahoman I should know, or have you been in Steyn showtune withdrawal lately? Dare we ask what the podcast musical selection will be?
Cheering news from California. Maybe you guys won't slide off into the Pacific just yet. Senator Ma'am is just below Alan Grayson on the wish list, though obviously more significant.
May '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Oh, it get's worse. A lot worse.
Oct '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Up in Canada, our largest city just elected a new mayor. Toronto mayor-elect Rob Ford, whose campaign was "Stop the Gravy Train", won by 11 points, even though recent polls had him tied with his closest rival, or at the most only a few points ahead. Perhaps one can remain optimistic about the success of California Republicans, because public polls do not always reflect the last-minute voter determination to reign in government spending.
Aug '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Regardless of how I feel about Boxer or the Dems in general, I am dumbstruck (and even a little sympathetic) that someone of Feinstein's stature and experience would make such a gaffe.
You NEVER say things are going "bad". You should ALWAYS have a canned statement of optimism and hope memorized for just such an occasion.
Gosh. If I was Boxer I'd be PLENTY angry at Feinstein for that one.
Aug '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
EJHill
Oh, it get's worse. A lot worse. · Oct 27 at 9:39am
Actually, that image is TOTALLY how I'd picture Mary Poppins if a movie was made that was faithful to the books. Heh heh heh ...
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
EJHill
Oh, it get's worse. A lot worse. · Oct 27 at 9:39am
EJ, you're a genius. And how do you do stuff like that so fast?
May '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Preparation and inspiration, my good man. This is how I imagine you next Wednesday if the results are spectacular.
Aug '10
Re: The Grass is as High as An Elephant's Eye
Don't confuse "within the margin of error" as meaning the same thing as 50/50. Rather all it means is that the odds for the favorite are weaker than 95/5. If we assume a 1 point lead for Boxer in a poll with about 1000 to 1500 people and further assume that the poll has an accurate voter turnout model, then there's about a 1 in 4 chance that Fiorina will win.* Better than I would have hoped for a few months ago, but the smart money is still on Boxer.
Sorry to be a wet blanket.
[* The way you calculate this is that standard error is about .5 / sample^0.5, which works out to about 1.5%. To get to a Fiorina win (i.e., a Boxer vote of 49.99%) given a point estimate of a Boxer vote of 51%, you need to go to about negative 0.7 sigmas on a standard normal. The density on a standard normal to the left of negative 0.7 is about .24. Hence, there is about a 1 in 4 chance that Boxer will do sufficiently worse than expected that she actually loses.]
Edited on Oct 27, 2010 at 10:34am