The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Are things really that bad? Read the paper, watch the news -- it seems like we're all going over a cliff. And not just a fiscal one. Steven Johnson, who wrote an excellent book, "The Ghost Map", about the cholera epidemic in London in the 19th century, asks this question, from CNN.com:
Over the past two decades, what have the U.S. trends been for the following important measures of social health: high school dropout rates, college enrollment, juvenile crime, drunken driving, traffic deaths, infant mortality, life expectancy, per capita gasoline consumption, workplace injuries, air pollution, divorce, male-female wage equality, charitable giving, voter turnout, per capita GDP and teen pregnancy?
I know how I answered: things are worse! Not so fast, says Johnson:
The answer for all of them is the same: The trend is positive. Almost all those varied metrics of social wellness have improved by more than 20% over the past two decades. And that's not counting the myriad small wonders of modern medicine that have improved our quality of life as well as our longevity: the anti-depressants and insulin pumps and quadruple bypasses.
Society seems to be getting better, too, in a lot of ways that, frankly, I just didn't know about:
Many Americans, for instance, are convinced that "half of all marriages end in divorce," though that hasn't been the case since the early 1980s, when divorce rates peaked at just over 50%. Since then, they have declined by almost a third.
This is not merely a story of success in advanced industrial countries. The quality-of-life and civic health trends in the developing world are even more dramatic.
Even though the world's population has doubled over the past 50 years, the percentage living in poverty has declined by 50% over that period. Infant mortality and life expectancy have improved by more than 40% in Latin America since the early 1990s. No country in history has improved its average standard of living faster than China has over the past two decades.
Some caveats:
Of course, not all the arrows point in a positive direction, particularly after the past few years. The number of Americans living in poverty has increased over the past decade, after a long period of decline. Wealth inequality has returned to levels last seen in the roaring '20s.
Today, the U.S. unemployment rate is still just under 8%, higher than its average over the past two decades. Household debt soared over the past 20 years, though it has dipped slightly thanks to the credit crunch of the last few years. And while the story of water and air pollution over that period is a triumphant one, the long-term trends for global warming remain bleak.
Those metrics we hear about. And hear about, and hear about. But the others -- the general trend towards health and wealth throughout the world -- not so much.
Here are Johnson's reasons for that:
First, we tend to assume that innovation and progress come from big technology breakthroughs, from new gadgets and communications technologies, most of them created by the private sector. But the positive trends in our social health are coming from a more complex network of forces: from government intervention, public service announcements, demographic changes, the shared wisdom of life experiences passed along through generations and the positive effects of rising affluence. The emphasis on private sector progress is no accident; it is the specific outcome of the way public opinion is shaped within the current media landscape.
The public sector doesn't have billions of dollars to spend on marketing campaigns to trumpet its successes. A multinational corporation invents a slightly better detergent, and it will spend a legitimate fortune to alert the world that the product is now "new and improved." But no one takes out a prime-time ad campaign to tout the remarkable decrease in air pollution that we have seen over the past few decades, even thought that success story is far more important than a trivial improvement in laundry soap.
That blind spot is compounded by the deeper lack of interest in stories of incremental progress. Curmudgeons, doomsayers, utopians and declinists all have an easier time getting our attention than opinion leaders who want to celebrate slow and steady improvement.
Excuse me, what? Any recent positive trends in the American social fabric are because the public sector shrank, not grew. There's zero evidence (which is why Johnson doesn't mention any) to suggest that the public sector is the engine that propels health care innovation. Or any innovation. And as far as the country's social health is concerned, this progress has more to do with the welfare reform movement -- shrinking government largesse -- than any other factor. And ecological and environmental improvements are more about the market and less about government. And if Johnson doesn't believe that, perhaps he can explain why Solyndra failed.
Because its technology was faulty. And how do we know that? Because they couldn't raise money -- not a dollar -- during what can only be called a private equity/venture investment boom. The only sucker ready to pony up was Johnson's public sector. Remember them? They're the ones that Johnson thinks don't "have billions of dollars to spend on marketing campaigns to trumpet" their successes.
But of course they do. And they do. That's what a political campaign is all about. If you add up the campaign budgets of every politician grasping for re-election, you get to a pretty large figure being spent on "trumpeting."
It's not "curmudgeonly" to remind folks that things are getting better -- and they are, incrementally -- all over the world only because free markets are on the march. Or were.
And that's where the story might take a turn for the worse.
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May '10
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
I agree, I am really concerned that we are killing the goose that laid the golden egg. As government grows, all the positive trends will slow.
Jan '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Yeah, I'm still waiting for the smoking gun evidence that shows how government programs improved divorce and charitable giving.
The underlying argument is ridiculous. It says that if government was successful in anything, we must conclude that it'll be successful in everything. Public sector regulations probably helped limit air pollution ... but does that prove that we should regulate everything to extreme? That's what this piece tries to assert.
This is logic-free association, i.e., making associations between items and then asserting a conclusion. In logic, you have to establish logical connections between statements, and they have to be formed in a certain way. You can't just throw out statements and then posture that you've made a conclusion.
Consider "per capita gasoline consumption." To an environmentalist, this is a raging sign of social improvement. For the rest of us, it just shows that gasoline is more expensive.
I've seen more and more of this style of "argument" lately. It's all posture, no logic. If you just pretend that you've answered a question, you can fool enough people into concluding that you actually did answer it.
Mar '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Rob Long: Society seems to be getting better, too, in a lot of ways that, frankly, I just didn't know about:
Why that is amazing, what could possibly explain this incredible turn of good fortune?
Oh. So people are just not bothering to get married in the first place. I see.
It is rather difficult to take any of Mr. Johnson's assertions very seriously.
Apr '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Great advances in medicine are well subsidized by the US government through its continuing funding of basic research through the NIH. The US has led the world in medical technology and cures because we have had the largest out lays for biological research. The foundation of all technological innovation is basic research and the Government plays a major role in promoting it.
Jul '12
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Hey honey, Rob says $16 trillion in the hole is good news, break out the AmEx!!
Oct '12
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Teen pregnancy and divorce are down? That is a surprise. Anybody know how those metrics look among different demographics and income levels?
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
I can't wait for the divorce rate to get to zero! All we have to wait for is the complete implosion of marriage culture. It'll come soon enough. Then things will be super-duper, couldn't-be-better good, right?
Apr '12
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Marriage statistics actually have improved modestly from their low in the late 70's and early 80's... among the middle and upper classes. People marry late, but most of them do marry, and divorce has become less common and less socially accepted in some of those subsets of American society. But look to the lower middle class and below, and yeah... people largely just aren't marrying at all. They cohabitate and eventually break up and you have lots of single moms and out of wedlock births. Among the upper classes, people stay married but birth rates are low. So don't worry, all you gloomy conservatives. Still plenty of worrisome social trends to keep you awake at night.
May '10
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
The fact that our number one health problem is obesity is something totally new. We have ended poverty in this country as it has been understood.
Personally, I think technology is the biggest changer of society and culture. Marriage is more effected by the pill than anything else. It is the pill that has allowed us to sunder marriage from sex widespread.
The advent of iron led the the fall of the civilization of that time. Iron, which is a good thing overall, destabilized the world.
There are lots of ways we are much better off than we were in 1970, and lots of trends to show that many of the economic improvements are going to continue.
The risk, as I see it, is that as government grows, innovation will slow, and the expansion will slow.
But, but "slow" I mean slower than 1950-2000, not back to 1700-1750. Technology will level off at some point, but I don't think we are anywhere close.
Aug '10
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Roberto nailed my first objection. My second is about this:
So, hooray for globalization, right? Right? Anyone?
Oh, I suppose they're still worrying about this bit:
Well, yes, those liberals have been saying for years that we get cheap consumer goods, and thus higher standards of living, by exporting lower- and middle-class jobs to foreign countries. How did Johnson think those poor people got un-poor?
(Never mind that static wealth inequality is meaningless; the "ideal" percentage divisions are ultimately arbitrary judgements. Wealth mobility is the important statistic.)
May '10
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Well Said. More people have enough to eat that ever before. What better measure is that? Who cares is some people have 17 houses.
BlueAnt: Roberto nailed my first objection. My second is about this:
So, hooray for globalization, right? Right? Anyone?
Oh, I suppose they're still worrying about this bit:
Well, yes, those liberals have been saying for years that we get cheap consumer goods, and thus higher standards of living, by exporting lower- and middle-class jobs to foreign countries. How did Johnson think those poor people got un-poor?
(Never mind that static wealth inequality is meaningless; the "ideal" percentage divisions are ultimately arbitrary judgements. Wealth mobilityis the important statistic.) · 0 minutes ago
May '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
There are lies, [CoC violation] lies,and statistics.
Edited on December 26, 2012 at 8:11pmApr '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
OK, so the rate (not just the number) of divorces is lower and the rate of marriage is lower. Is this something to mourn? It would seem that in the past, more people rushed into marriage, realized it was a mistake, and got a divorce. If people are being more cautious before jumping in, is that such a bad thing?
Jan '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
"The public sector doesn't have billions of dollars to spend on marketing campaigns..."
I suspect this is true, because the public sector only has about ½ the dollars that are being spent for anything anyway.
Those signs that read "This boondoggle brought to you by the Investment & Recovery Act" - are those not considered "marketing"?
Apr '12
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Randy, it's a bad thing insofar as people are cohabitating, having kids out of wedlock, and splitting up without ever marrying. Which is basically the norm in some subsectors of society.
May '10
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
People aren't cautious. They're inexcusably reckless.
Apr '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
OK, I think I'm getting into the proper Ricochet mood, now. We must look for the dark side in everything. Let me give it a whirl. What's so great about drunk driving going down? Do you know how many tow truck drivers and auto body repairmen this hurts?
Jul '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Johnson is happily picking things he assumes point toward a positive direction, the divorce rate being the one that generated the most laughs here on my end of the laserweb. He also manages to toss in global warming as kind of a soupcon there, too.
Tell you what, Johnson. Take a look at the growth of the federal debt as a percentage of GDP, look at annual deficit spending and projections for the next 10 years, and take a look at the real (U6) unemployment rate - and then re-write your article.
Laughable. The worst trend is that we're past the point now where more people take than contribute, and so they now have the power to vote themselves more of the same. There's an accelerator labeled "Stoopid", and we just collectively stomped on it on Nov. 6, to get us to financial ruin faster than previously assumed. There is nothing good in any of this.
Dec '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Roberto,
You beat me to it. It seemed to me in the data there was some flaw. It would be like saying that horse related deaths have gone down. Nowadays people live together for a few years then part ways. Before the same couple would have gotten married and then divorced. If someone could measure these and consider them in all practical senses marriages I think divorces have gone up.
Roberto
Why that is amazing, what could possibly explain this incredible turn of good fortune?
Oh. So people are just not bothering to get married in the first place. I see.
It is rather difficult to take any of Mr. Johnson's assertions very seriously. · 1 hour ago
Mar '11
Re: The Good News is, the News is Actually Good
Mr. Weivoda the value of a metric is not intrinsic. The metric is valued only insofar as it conveys significant or useful information.
In this particular instance: if the number of broken families has not decreased to any significant degree then of what value are Mr. Johnson's divorce statistics? If the situation of a man and a women getting married, having a child and then getting divorced after a year has now been replaced by one where the father simply abandons the woman (or vice versa) and never bothers going through the formality of marriage... where exactly is the improvement to be celebrated?
Edited on December 26, 2012 at 9:31pm