The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
My gloominess about the political situation in which the Republicans in Congress find themselves--not their intelligence, the rightness of their analysis, or their determination to cut spending, but the politics--continues.
Years ago, Milton and Rose Friedman published a compelling little book, Tyranny of the Status Quo, on the exceptional difficulty of overcoming sheer inertia. They were writing about the federal government, and I'll come back to that, but it just occurred to me that their basic insight shows up only too often in everyday life as well.
Want proof? Here you go:
Only just now did I sign up for Vonage. I've known for months and months that Vonage would save my family quite a little bundle. (Whereas I pay MCI $99 a month for our residential phone service, and AT&T another $40 or so a month for a fax line, Vonage will charge only $35 a month for both.) Friends have told me over and over again that they use Vonage and love it. Heck, I'd even gone to the Vonage site to perform the "speed test," making sure my Internet connection is fast enough. (It is, and then some.) But only just now, when the thought of next year's tuition payments happened to come to mind--I have another kid headed off to college in the fall--did I finally bestir myself.
Which brings me back to the federales.
Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and, to some extent, even at this early date, ObamaCare--people have gotten used to them. Even those of us who wish such programs had never been enacted in the first place have made our little accommodations. We've set up our lives to take them into account. We've looked at problems--our aging parents, or, for that matter, our aging selves--and decided to permit one program or another to help us deal with it. Hundreds of millions of Americans who have, in countless ways, worked the federal government into the workings of their daily lives--and would now rather be left alone, thank you very much.
That's what Republicans are up against.
Can someone please cheer me up?
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Comments :
Sep '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
You still use a fax machine?!? Now that's inertia. Sorry, but that's the first thing that leapt out at me from your post.
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Here is cheer. The situation is simple. It cannot go on -- and what cannot go on, won't. Social Security is now paying out more than it takes in, and that is not temporary. So there will be entitlement reform. The same is true for Medicare. And Obamacare -- don't let me get started.
So things will change. On the face of it, we can either raise taxes sky-high or cut expenditures. But it is by no means clear that raising taxes dramatically will bring in more money. When we tax, we do not tax things -- we tax processes (e.g., the earning of income), we tax conduct (working overtime, for example). High taxes will change conduct. If you punish hard work, there will be less of it and less income to tax.
So, in reality, there is no choice. We cannot raise taxes much and expect to bring in more. Our only way out is to cut -- and, God bless him, Paul Ryan understands this, and John Boehner stands with him.
Of course, the American people in 2012 can vote to ignore reality. The people of California did so in 2010. But reality will nonetheless make itself manifest.
Jan '11
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Even if you did not agree to these programs, you'd be irresponsible to your family if you did not take advantage of them, would you not?
There is nothing more permanent than a government program, and nothing more addictive than free money, but we're going to have to pay the piper at some point, and it might as well be now with us, rather than later with our children.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
It doesn't matter what people are used to, or what they expect. Facts are stubborn things. And the fact of the matter is that we're heading toward bankruptcy if something isn't done soon. We can as citizens collectively kick the can down the road only so far. The day our national debt gets downgraded in the debt market is the day the game changes permanently. Numbers, like facts, are stubborn little critters, too.
Jul '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
So long as nearly 50% of earners pay zero federal income tax, we will not have an effective majority for change. Republicans were foolish to let this happen. Now they have to figure out how to assure that every American has skin in the game.
Nov '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
No, I really cannot say anything to cheer you up. In fact, I have noticed that the problem has become worse as my years have increased. There is a "it just ain't worth it" factor that enters into the equation after a certain point.
A friend of ours said when she bought yet another Buick land yacht a couple of years ago over the advice of my father (because that is what her deceased husband always had bought for them when he was alive): "don't worry about it James, this one will see me on out". Many of us have to fight that feeling a good bit of the time.
Why change? ObamaCare will "see us on out", and, besides, the children were captivated by the Obamination, any way. Sometimes it is hard to keep on fighting. But, as The Poet wrote
If [we] can force [our] heart and nerve and sinew
To serve [our] turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in [us]
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on!"
Then, maybe we, too, can earn his accolade.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
The cookie jar is empty because you ate them all! No more cookies for you. It's something that even a 5-year old can understand.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
As Thomas Sowell said on his latest Uncommon Knowledge appearance (paraphrasing here) "... it's been said that Social Security has never missed a payment or been a dollar short. That's true of everything right until the moment of collapse." So I'm with Prof. Rahe - something's got to give. It will be painful and traumatic but the day of reckoning must be coming.
It may take the collapse of the whole entitlement system before we Americans are willing to take on the problem seriously. We still want what we want and it's been promised to us for many years. Convincing us to go another course will take some doing (good luck Mr. Ryan). If our political class can keep pretending that everything will somehow all work out they will just hasten that day when the whole thing crashes. Then there will be a scramble to cobble together something that will prove to be just as unworkable as Medicare and Social Security but it will be necessary politically.
Oh! You asked for someone to cheer you up! Sorry about that...
Jul '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
My guess is that we are doomed. James Madison noted that, "An informed populace is indispensable to the maintenance of a free republic."
Our educational system has, by fecklessness and by ideological design, produced two generations of citizens who know nothing of history, nothing of economics and little or nothing of American exceptionalism. And our political "leaders" either engage in rank demagoguery, shrink from telling plain truths or lack the ability to explain reality to their infantilized constituents. In their ignorance, vast numbers of American citizens live in a world of magical thinking.
Perhaps the only solution to your angst, Peter, is to buy some fertile acreage far from the madding crowds and learn how to subsist.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Reasons #25 and #47 why only a much bigger crisis will wake us up.
We have, in the last few years, seriously started working on our family's debt. It has been extremely hard, but we've cut it by 60% and are on track to eliminate it all (besides mortgage) in a year. We drive two cars from 2002 that are paid for.
It took a lot to overcome inertia on our part. We had to seriously cut back, and are changing many habits that are still very hard to change. And this is a situation where we can see the direct consequences of our own actions.
With a country's budget, which moves much more slowly and almost inevitably, change is much harder. And to politicians, the consequences always appear a lot farther away than the relatively immediate benefits of spending (votes). That is, until it's too late to really do anything.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
With the advent of Obamacare, some (many?) of us are unlikely to live to retirement age anyway. We'll be doing our part to shore up Social Security (although I haven't contributed for a few years, anyway).
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Once upon a time, I had the pleasure of hearing, then, Surgeon General, C. Everett Koop speak. He had a great line to this effect: “Americans believe that death is an option.” And, he’s right! This thinking will keep people hanging on to as much health care as they can get.
Another time a co-worker said to me as I prepared to take a leave from work to have surgery, “You have a right to be pain free.” What kind of right is that? Again, this common perspective is not going to make it any easier for Republicans to cut back spending in health care. Continued...
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Paul A. Rahe: In reality, there is no choice. We cannot raise taxes much and expect to bring in more. Our only way out is to cut -- and, God bless him, Paul Ryan understands this, and John Boehner stands with him.
Of course, the American people in 2012 can vote to ignore reality. The people of California did so in 2010. But reality will nonetheless make itself manifest. · Jan 29 at 2:16pm
What has me feeling gloomy isn't the thought that the Republicans are wrong but that they're right. Also courageous. Also--and this is true for the first time since Reagan--articulate. But that, in spite of all that, they're very likely to find themselves punished at the polls. Here we have the most impressive group of Republicans in generations--maybe ever. And Barack Obama and the vicissitudes of history have already backed them into a corner.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
The gist of Koop’s speech was that real health insurance reform would only come when individuals took responsibility for their health with wiser eating and exercise choices.
I will confess that I am on Medicaid. I thank all of you who are paying for my health insurance at this time. I don’t take it for granted. I do my homework to see if the test/procedure/surgery the doctor is suggesting is really the right thing to do (More often than not, it is not.) I take care of my health. And, when the money runs out, I’ll be thankful for what I had, not angry at Medicaid’s inevitable demise.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Kervinlee: ...So I'm with Prof. Rahe - something's got to give. It will be painful and traumatic but the day of reckoning must be coming.
It may take the collapse of the whole entitlement system before we Americans are willing to take on the problem seriously...
Oh! You asked for someone to cheer you up! Sorry about that...
Well, the news of inevitable collapse is not cheerful, but the cheerful part (if you can think of it this way) is that life will go on. We'll muddle through the crisis (though it will be EXTREMELY HARD on many people).
And when we have, we won't repeat the same mistake again. For another few generations.
It's still my contention that we'd be better off defaulting now, wiping the slate clean, (and passing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution), and taking our lumps now instead of later when the crisis will be uncontrolled and even worse.
However, making that happen (including the balanced budget amendment) looks politically impossible.
The next best thing is: don't raise the debt limit. Ever. Of course that will only last as long as enough Tea Partiers are in power.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Oh, Peter, you think it's bad now? Just wait until you need to send a fax via VOIP.
Sep '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Peter, the answer is at Stanford. Have you read Switch by the Heath Brothers?:
Switch: How to change when change is hard
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Silly optimists.
This is more likely than not. I'm not convinced enough Republican voters are willing to give up Social Security and company. Nor am I convinced that enough Republican politicians have the spine to weather the inevitable storm in response to such cuts, nor the humility to relinquish their authority over citizens' daily affairs.
I'm doubtful Republicans will accomplish much before 2012 (a Republican President is guaranteed either). Meanwhile, Obamacare will continue to damage every corner of the medical industry. Obama will continue his vendetta against oil and coal. And every other industry will remain fearful of unpredictable and unrestrained regulatory agencies.
And now we have a new problem thanks to conflict in the Middle East -- higher gas prices!
As I said the last time you fretted, Peter, this is when we find out whether or not the Constitution still represents the values of most Americans.
The GOP would be smart to aim high. Modest goals do not inspire courage and sacrifice. We'll need a lot of both in the near future.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
Y'all are such a bunch of sad sacks. America is still blessed with abundant natural resources. We still lead the world in science, technology and innovation. Our populace is educated. We have vast amounts of energy beneath our soil waiting to be exploited. Our people are hard working and optimistic by nature. A vast culling of our dependent class is necessary for fiscal stability, and it will prove to be socially healthy in the long run. We'll either do the right thing by choice, or we'll be forced to do it by necessity. If anyone can recover from a mess such as this, we can. We're Americans after all. I hardly need to say "bring it!" It's coming.
Sep '10
Re: The GOP and the Tyranny of the Status Quo
I'm very pleased with my MyFax account and I've had Vonage in Canada for over a year.