The GOP and the Modern South
Now that my pampered first world lifestyle is no longer dependent on the backup generators next door, I find myself thinking about one of my (many) favorite subjects: Southern politics. I seem to remember a meme taking hold in the fallout from the 2008 election to the effect that the GOP would forever be relegated to the status of the regional party of the South. This is of course demonstrably false, but I have to wonder what will happen to this stronghold of Republican support in the near future. It would be interesting to speculate on what the South's place within the Republican coalition as the political climate shifts.
As I look across today's political landscape, I can't help but notice that of the major figures within the party today, fewer than one might expect come from the South. When I look at Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Paul Ryan, Chris Christie, Scott Walker and Sarah Palin, it occurs to me that the axis of Republican politics may be shifting away from the South. I will leave it to you to figure whether Ron Paul and Rick Perry should be included in the South; I have known Texans to be somewhat touchy on the question as to whether they are Southern or Western. Even as a Virginian, I have difficulty including my Governor, who, despite policy successes, has not attained the "name - rec" status of some Northern Republicans.
Anyhow, none of us can see far ahead into the future, so it would be grandiose to proclaim the coming geographic realignment of the Republican Party base. I just think it should be pointed out that, save Eric Cantor and Jim DeMint--important figures to be sure--there aren't as many Southern leaders in the GOP coalition as there once were. Granted, there have been important non-Southerners in the GOP since Southern realignment--Bob Dole, Dennis Hastert, and Henry Hyde--but the GOP's association with the South has become almost unshakeable. Can anyone think of any other dynamic Southerners in the GOP? Let me know of any obvious omissions. And, more importantly, has populist conservatism become such a fixture of the national political landscape, for the moment at least, that Southern identity is less important? (I would also like to point out that for the sake of a common frame of reference, I am using the so-called "11 state South" definition)
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Re: The GOP and the Modern South
As a Texan, I do align with the South, and so I would include Ron Paul and Rick Perry in any list of important Republican Southerners. Of course, there's Senator Tom Coburn from Oklahoma, Gov. Haley Barbour from Mississippi, and in recent memory, George Bush (TX), Jeb Bush (FL), and Mike Huckabee (AR). Now we've also got to consider some of the "up-and-comers" like Senator Marco Rubio (FL) (some would say he's already arrived), Governor Nikki Haley (SC), and Governor Bobby Jindal (LA).
I think that this combination of older bastions who mark the end of one generation, and younger upstarts who might lead a younger one, does show that the South has had might still have a real, tangible stake in the GOP. Remember, three of the last four of the GOP presidential nominees have been Southerners and the current GOP frontrunner is a Southerner (although that might yet change!). Indeed, if Republicans can't win this election, it is very very possible that the Republican 2016 ticket will include one or more of the"up-and-comers" that I mentioned above. The South still lives!
Edited on Aug 30, 2011 at 12:40pmRe: The GOP and the Modern South
Toni, I agree with you on Haley. Jindal seems to have fallen by the wayside in past couple of years, but the public arena is fickle, and it's always possible he will again be considered a major national player. I didn't include the Bush family because they aren't in office at the moment. Coburn is an interesting choice, though I don't typically think of Oklahoma as part of the South, which I suppose is why he didn't occur to me. I don't think I would include Rubio, however. Going off of the old joke about Florida, the further south you are, the further north it gets. The nature of South Florida is such that I generally don't think of it as the South, but if we're strictly going state by state, you'd have to include him, although far be it for a resident of the DC suburbs to be the arbiter of "Southernness."
May '11
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
As a lifetime Southerner I can point out to you that Mitch McConnell of KY, Lindsay Graham of SC, and Lamar Alexander of TN are all Southern. And all RINOs.
What this points to is a need for term limits.
BTW...Marco Rubio is a Senator for ALL of FL not just S. FL. The folks on the panhandle of FL are as conservative Republican as you are likely to get. Their votes are what made it possible for Rubio to win.
Jul '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Re: VA, McDonnell could get more name recognition, but he doesn't seem to be going out of his way looking for it. I don't necessarily have a problem with that. Also, don't count out George Allen. Should he win back his Senate seat over Tim Kaine, he'll back in the national spotlight.
Nov '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Eric, alot of Southerners may disagree that Virginia is in the South, especially that part above Fredericksburg. When is the last time a Virginian was the Governor, or even a Senator? All Yanks.
In Chesterfield County, a heavily populated county surrounding Richmond, not one of the Board of Supervisors is from Chesterfield County, or even Virginia, All from the North or Midwest. They came here for employment and low cost of living. Once here and in governance, they do all they can to ramp up any service, any oversight and multiply the workers along with taxes and fees. A library on every corner, a park in every housing district, plenty of greenies telling you if you can cut down a tree or not.
The point is the overspill from Washington is polluting Virginia, the way New York City did to New Jersey 70 years ago. At first, times are good, taxes are low, high business growth, etc. Eventually however the complex, as Breitbart calls it, will become a drag and we will look like New Jersey by 2040.
Southernerss need to be careful about the carpetbagger effect, stick to conservative principles and participate as leaders. Good Post Eric.
Nov '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
OOPS! re above post. Eric Cantor is a homegrown Virginian. My Bad.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
You don't get more southern than Haley Barbour...and there is no GOP'er more shrewd than the Governor of Mizsipey.
Jun '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I like the South. They can insult you without even hurting your feelings. When they say "bless your heart," you can take it any way you like. I always assume they love me. :)
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Look Away: Eric, alot of Southerners may disagree that Virginia is in the South, especially that part above Fredericksburg. When is the last time a Virginian was the Governor, or even a Senator? All Yanks.
Aug 31 at 12:50pm
I take your point on Virginia. As a conservative and a legal resident of the People's Republic of Northern Virginia, it's hard to find many reminders that the area was once culturally southern. My own cultural roots are in the North and Midwest, although I do proudly identify with Virginia, which is more than I can say of a lot of people in my area. As for the Complex taking over, I think we could see the same process in NC and FL as those states grow and change. I even remember a guy I knew at RNC saying that decades down the road, even TX could be ripe Dem territory. As you say, stick to conservative principles.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
For a Democrat, except under unusual circumstances (Obama), to be nationally viable you have to be from the South or a border state, because the perception of elitist Northern liberals is negative (Dukakis is a perfect example).
For a Republican to be competitive nationally, you have to be from the North or a border state, because of the good old boy Bible Belt perceptions, including about race, as illustrated by the Haley Barbour (Citizens Councils), Strom Thurmond, and Trent Lott debacles. Bush was as Northern as a Texan can be, Perry is not, so he faces a significant uphill battle nationally.
The bigger problem for the GOP is purism, however. When people with a 90% (Graham, McConnell) or 80% (Alexander) lifetime ACU score are characterized as RINOs by those who believed that O'Donnell and Angle were viable nominees, we are doomed to carrying the states that McCain did in 2008.
Bachmann and Paul in Iowa? You don't carry essential states like Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina with a ticket headed by such narrow candidates.
Just because Mike Murphy would agree with this does not mean it is wrong.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I may be duplicating others' good suggestions and I'm sure I'm missing a ton of people, but here's my list of established or emerging GOP leaders in the South (warning, there are some judges on here). It's not a bad bench:
- North Carolina: Patrick McHenry, John Hood
- South Carolina: Jim DeMint, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Mick Mulvaney, Trey Gowdy
- Georgia: Sam Olens, David Nahmias, Herman Cain
- Alabama: Bill Pryor, Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby, Dale Peterson (couldn't resist, the ads were too good)
- Mississippi: Haley Barbour
- Louisiana: Bobby Jindal
- Texas: Rick Perry, Jeb Hensarling, Ted Cruz, John Cornyn
- Florida: Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Allen West
- Virginia: Bob McDonnell, Ken Cuccinelli, Eric Cantor
Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky - you have some work to do.
May '11
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I agree with Matthew's list above and would add Renee Elmers to the NC list. I recently heard Ilario Pantano speak (he narrowly lost a house race in NC 7) and it was one of the most impressive speaches I can remember. He was a marine acquited of murdering two Iraqi civilians. I will be surprised if he doesn't win in 2012. Check out his you tube entries.
Edited on Aug 31, 2011 at 4:38pmMay '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I thought about Ellmers, but she's going to have to do some hard work to hold that seat. I presume the Democrat nominee won't try to choke a student journalist next year.
Mar '11
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Eric Ames:
As I look across today's political landscape, I can't help but notice that of the major figures within the party today, fewer than one might expect come from the South.
Is this cyclical? States have become so conservative (or liberal in the case of some congressional districts) that there isn't the built in need for a dynamic figure to emerge. That's not to say there aren't such folks, but think of long the beleaguered Upper Midwest and Great Lakes where the march to the left has been unyielding for decades. If one is to appeal to people who have been voting blue their entire adult lives then a certain something (personality, charm, savvy, wit) to succeed and that translates nationally.
Eventually the Demorcats will make saficant electorial progress south of the Mason-Dixon that a new crop of appealing conservative pols will rise up to unseat them.
Then again I can undermine my whole argument by pointing to my own mostly beloved often aggravating Evergreen State. We're still waiting for Superman.
May '11
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I find it passing strange that at the same time that you are invoking a Southern mystique of a united south you are also claiming that there is something unusual about the party of Lincoln having a number of northern members.
On another point, I grew up in Virginia and I can assure you that it is a southern state. But remember that although the state seceded in the late unpleasantness, the northern parts above Fredericksburg were pretty much continually occupied by the Yankees from about 1861 until the present date.
As for Texas, I can say that from my perspective as a Virginian who has lived in Texas for about a dozen years now, that it is a bit southern and a bit western, but it is mostly just Texan.
Aug '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
I hesitate to say this but it seems to me that there remains a strong redneck/white trash/hillbilly/cracker mentality down here that simply wants to left alone. Most of the men mentioned above are meddlesome by disposition who unquestionably go along with the idea that there is a proper role for gummit in all aspects of our lives. Paul is the exception. Heck, there's nothing but Yankees in Atlanta, south of Tallahassee, northern Virginia, & eastern NC.
Aug '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
And I say that as a proud redneck/Georgia cracker.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Fine, fine - we'll leave you alone....
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
You notice that Matthew declared Florida to be "South" again, and also listed the old guys and rednecks as well as the true rising stars.
I love Haley- but he sure isn't a national candidate, unless it is for the Foghorn Leghorn audition for an upcoming movie. And Jim DeMint, much as he is a TEA Party hero, wouldn't win a Senate race anyplace except the deep deep South (not Florida, NC, Tennessee, Kentucky). Sessions and Shelby are OK as old senators, frankly, so is Cornyn- not "emerging" leaders. Herman Cain is a great guy who needs to get 15 years younger and do some foreign policy homework.
Niki Haley and Tim Scott have some promise, so does Jindal if he can overcome the supernerd image.
May '10
Re: The GOP and the Modern South
Duane, Duane, why dost thou torment us? That's precisely why South Carolina is here: to grace the country with the committed conservatives that other states (*cough* *cough* Minnesota) can't give us!