The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
The winners of the foreign policy debate are pretty obvious by my measure: Gingrich and Perry. But the best part of Saturday's foreign policy debate has to be this backstage footage. I wish we had this sort of thing for every debate.
Gingrich’s win means less: he’s expected to perform like this at this point, and Newtmentum is now an accepted reality. But still: this is a moment only Newt expected. And now it’s a question of whether he can rise to meet it. Can he run this way til voting begins without stumbling? As Steve Hayward pointed out last week, the whole approach is incredibly unique (or maybe what's unique is that it's working!):
“Beyond handicapping the primary campaign dynamics, Newt is doing something interesting and maybe profound: he is trying to run for president according to an older model that stresses substance over sound bytes and gimmicky, targeted campaign strategy. (Hence the emphasis on Lincoln-Douglas style debates that de-emphasize the place of the media questioners, among other things.) It is a bid to see whether presidential politics can still be conducted along the line of the old republic that would be more familiar to the Founders, to the style of public argument more akin to what Hamilton had in mind in talking about “refining and enlarging the public view” through “reflection and choice” in Federalist #1.”
How very Newt to make a campaign that isn't just a campaign, but a statement about history! Anti-Newt backlash is already out there. But the fact is that in his case, these skeletons are all known – sometimes for decades. Perhaps that is enough to weather them?
Perry’s task is clear: he has to perform at this level all the way through the Iowa debates. Marc Thiessen noted on Twitter: "Whoda thunk that Perry's best debate would be on foreign policy?" Silly as this approach to picking a presidential candidate may be, it’s clear the media has won this battle, stage managing the nomination to make it all about these answers. (Most hilarious moment came at the end of the debate, when Perry was asked to effectively “sum up the Eurozone in 30 seconds”, then got cut off after ten). And now, it's the only path out of the hole he's dug for himself.
You've probably seen his amusing gaffe response by now, but the best moment for Perry was probably this confrontation with Ron Paul:
In 1972 I volunteered to serve in the United States Air Force, and the idea that we have our young men and women in combat today where there are people who would kill them in a heartbeat, under any circumstance and using any technique that they can — for us not to have the ability to try to extract information from them, to save our young people's lives, is a travesty. This is war. That's what happens in war. And I am for using the techniques, not torture, but using those techniques that we know will extract the information to save young American lives and I will be for it until I die.
One last important point: Despite being on a Saturday night and only having an hour broadcast, 5.3 million people watched the foreign policy debate on CBS. This effectively means more that a great many more people have now seen Perry’s responses to his CNBC debate gaffe than saw his original gaffe (even including a million YouTube hits).
Both these men are where they are, vying for the Not Mitt mantle, thanks to the inability of others to recover from their stumbles and their ability to bounce back from theirs. Let’s see what they do with it.
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Comments :
Apr '11
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
I have been enjoying Newts debate performances and did like his debate with Herman Cain and will look forward to more in the future.
I also appreciate the fact that he appears to remain committed to not criticizing the other candidates and taking on the media whenever he has the opportunity.
I do hope that Newt and Perry will rise in the poles if just for the fact of enhanced competition.
As to Rick Perry, he doesn't seem to as prepared for this candidacy as he needed to be from the start and I'm not confident he will be able to recover to the point of viability.
Oct '10
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
What a sad day for the republic. And what an abdication by the GOP. Who agreed to this ridiculous gotcha sound-bite death march anyway?
Oct '10
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
I glad Perry has stopped attacking Romney. Just focus on building your brand, Rick.
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
genferei
What a sad day for the republic. And what an abdication by the GOP. Who agreed to this ridiculous gotcha sound-bite death march anyway? · Nov 14 at 3:02am
It is absurd, is it not? I saw a recent media person asked about this on TV - "isn't this about more style than substance?" And their response was "style IS substance."
That's what the media thinks, mostly because they understand the former, but not the latter.
Dec '10
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
The pre-debate video was fantastic. It showed everything I've thought of this race so far. Perry was being the class clown, but being very likable doing it. Paul was being grandfatherly and helpful, but I'd still be leery of letting him drive. Santorum managed to get into the video, somehow. Huntsman's brow remained furrowed, man what an important brow. Newt was in the background being serious and minding the details. Bachmann was nowhere to be seen. And Romney apparently hadn't been brought out of stasis yet.This is the weirdest primary I've ever watched.
Apr '11
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
Best analysis of the entire GOP race I've read thus far.
May '10
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
Yes, it has been interesting for sure. Based on how it's going so far, I almost expect Ron Paul to surge at the last minute to sweep the first 3 primaries after being more or less dismissed through the entire cycle.
Being more realistic, what are the chances that we end up having 3 different winners for each of the opening primaries? That would certainly be in line with the way things have gone so far.
Dec '10
Re: The Foreign Policy Debate: Newtmentum and a Perry Bounceback
I foresee needing a vacation by April 1st if that happens. Romney is probably a lock for New Hampshire. Iowa seems to still be up in the air a bit as it's more of an ABR state. I know Newt's plan is to win South Carolina. Perhaps the chances are pretty good for such a scenario playing out. It will certainly keep "that look" on our spouses faces for another quarter if it does.