The Florida Straw Poll
As everyone apt to visit this site knows by now, Herman Cain won the Florida Straw Poll. Here is the breakdown of the votes:
Herman Cain 37.11%
Rick Perry 15.43%
Mitt Romney 14.00%
Rick Santorum 10.88%
Ron Paul 10.39%
Newt Gingrich 8.43%
Jon Huntsman 2.26%
Michele Bachmann 1.5%
What it all means is, of course, anyone’s guess. In the past, the individuals who won this poll fairly frequently went on to garner the Republican nomination.
This year, I very much doubt that this will be the case. Herman Cain is an attractive man. He is an accomplished businessman; he knows a great deal about banking and the Federal Reserve. He has a wonderful sense of humor, and he is a fine speaker. But he has no experience in legislative or executive office, and he is woefully ignorant in foreign affairs. If he were running for Governor, his defects in this regard would not be dispositive. But the first and most important function of our federal executive is national defense. In my judgment, he is unqualified for the Presidency . . . at this time.
What, then, did the folks in Florida have in mind? Well, to begin with, they liked Cain, and they were impressed – as well they should have been. Even more to the point, however, they did not much like anyone else. This poll was Rick Perry’s to lose, and he lost it big-time. And the collapse in his support, tellingly, did not eventuate in any rise in support for Mitt Romney.
Since this whole thing started, the Republican electorate has sent a clear signal. They want someone other than the man who brought the individual mandate to Massachusetts with Romneycare and paved the way by his example for Obamacare. For a time, Donald Trump was the surrogate for “someone-other-than-Romney.” After the debates in New Hampshire, that role fell to the spitfire from Minnesota – Michele Bachmann. When, finally, a candidate entered the field who looked for a brief moment as if he actually had the requisite gravitas and experience, her support collapsed, and Rick Perry took a commanding lead. When, however, he proved incapable of defending his record in debate and inept in articulating the principles on which the Tea-Party was founded, the Republicans in Florida voted for Cain. He is this week’s “someone-other-than-Romney.” And his support is – like that that of Trump, Bachmann, and Perry before him – a mile wide and a quarter-of-an inch deep.
What this means, in effect, is that we are back to square one. There is Romney, and there is no one else. He is what John McCain was in 2008. It is, of course, conceivable that Rick Perry was under the weather or doped up the two times that we saw him on stage. It is conceivable that he will now pull up his socks and display qualities that we no longer expect from him. But the odds are good that he is finished.
Chris Christie may come into the race. He, too, has his baggage. But no one doubts that he will be formidable in debate, and I would not be surprised to learn that he is much more conservative than he has thus far appeared to be. It is also conceivable that Governor Mitch Daniels will sit down with his wife and explain to her that the country needs him. I could even imagine Paul Ryan reluctantly stepping up to the plate.
But these may all be pipedreams. Come 31 October, when the primary deadlines first present themselves, we may have as serious candidates – Mitt Romney and no one else. I shudder to think of the long-term consequences.
Romney is a man of considerable ability. But he is not a conservative. He professes to be proud of Romneycare – which means that he sees nothing wrong with the individual mandate contained therein – i.e., with forcing the citizens of Massachusetts to buy health insurance.
I know of no one who has contributed to or commented on Ricochet who thinks this fine or admirable. The most that Romney’s admirers within our ranks can do is to reassure that he does not really believe what he says. “Trust Romney,” they say. “He is lying.”
I do not find these claims either reassuring or plausible. Generally, it seems to me, when it comes to politicians, it is not a good idea to engage in wishful thinking. My suspicion is that Mitt Romney is who he seems to be – a decent, earnest fellow worthy of personal trust who really is, as he claims, a businessman and a problem-solver. He would make a fine Secretary of Commerce. He might well keep his promise and work to repeal Obamacare. But otherwise he would be a standard managerial progressive of the sort Republicans are thoroughly familiar with – and in 2016, if we were lucky, we would be back more or less where we were in 2006 or 2007 – saddled with an entitlements state growing at a break-neck pace, subject to regulation by the administrative state in nearly every detail of our life, and slowly making our way down the road to soft despotism. The only difference is that by then we would have given up the hope that an alternative could be found.
I have with some frequency argued that the only thing that can save Progressivism in our day is the Republican Party, and I fear that we are going to nominate another Presidential candidate on the model of Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, and George W. Bush. I am far less worried about the wounds that Barack Obama has inflicted on this country than about the wounds we are apt to inflict on ourselves. If we are not willing to stand up against the Progressive juggernaut now, when will we ever be willing?
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Comments:
Sep '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Herman Cain's victory is remarkable--Michele Bachmann's loss (1.5%? One point five percent? Thirty-five percent below Jon Huntsman?) is stunning.
Any Ricochetistas have insight on the Florida straw poll? Did Bachmann campaign, or is this an indication that she... Wait, no.
What could she possibly have done to get thumped that badly?
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
John Murdoch: Herman Cain's victory is remarkable--Michele Bachmann's loss (1.5%? One point five percent? Thirty-five percent below Jon Huntsman?) is stunning.
Any Ricochetistas have insight on the Florida straw poll? Did Bachmann campaign, or is this an indication that she... Wait, no.
What could she possibly have done to get thumped that badly? · Sep 25 at 3:15pm
It beats me.
Mar '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
John Murdoch: Herman Cain's victory is remarkable--Michele Bachmann's loss (1.5%? One point five percent? Thirty-five percent below Jon Huntsman?) is stunning.
Any Ricochetistas have insight on the Florida straw poll? Did Bachmann campaign, or is this an indication that she... Wait, no.
What could she possibly have done to get thumped that badly? · Sep 25 at 3:15pm
I fear Prof. Rahe is correct. Actual conservatives are so disinclined to vote for a clear phony such as Romney they will flock in droves to any other candidate showing serious conservative principles who appears that they may be viable. Bachmann was a powerful beneficiary of that but given her performance in the previous debates the anti-Romney vote has abandoned her and moved on.
Jan '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Mr. Cain's win really highlights what the Tea Party movement is all about - spending, jobs & the economy (without the crony capitalism of Perry/Romney, wacky foreign policy of Ron Paul or off-putting moral preening of Santorum/Bachmann). You limit spending, you limit Government.
While I agree with the Prof. Rahe's assessment that Mr. Cain can't realistically win, it does give a clue as to the type of candidate that can (Mike Pence, John Kasich, Jon Kyle, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels call your office-Please!).
I just don't understand with this current GOP field and with this President, the reluctance to get in.
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Kowaliczko Tom: Mr. Cain's win really highlights what the Tea Party movement is all about - spending, jobs & the economy (without the crony capitalism of Perry/Romney, wacky foreign policy of Ron Paul or off-putting moral preening of Santorum/Bachmann). You limit spending, you limit Government.
While I agree with the Prof. Rahe's assessment that Mr. Cain can't realistically win, it does give a clue as to the type of candidate that can (Mike Pence, John Kasich, Jon Kyle, Paul Ryan, Mitch Daniels call your office-Please!).
I just don't understand with this current GOP field and with this President, the reluctance to get in. · Sep 25 at 3:44pm
It amazes me as well. This is the chance of a lifetime for a woman or man who wants to make a real difference.
May '10
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
I think Cain's victory is another sign of deep and broad disappointment with Perry. He was supposed to be the conservative alternative to Romney, but he's proven not to be.
But I agree entirely that he is not qualified for the office. We need someone with experience and a record of forwarding the conservative cause in elected office. I can imagine him as VP, however, if Marco Rubio declines the opportunity. I absolutely love how he gives the lie to the Tea-Partiers-are-racists meme.
May '10
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Paul A. Rahe
It amazes me as well. This is the chance of a lifetime for a woman or man who wants to make a real difference.
I'm not amazed at all when I see how vicious the media is to conservative nominees. That's got to give anyone with young children or skeletons in his closet serious pause.
It's one of the reasons I'm still hoping Sarah Palin will run. Her family has already been through the wringer and come out strong on the other side. She also has a record of being effective in office.
I am not at all happy in the prospect of a Chris Christie run.
Edited on September 26, 2011 at 5:10amJan '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Rahe: "In my judgment, he is unqualified for the Presidency . . . at this time."
Well, as you pose the premise, yes, but what does that have to do with electability?
Consider the 2008 election, for example.
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Anon: Rahe: "In my judgment, he is unqualified for the Presidency . . . at this time."
Well, as you pose the premise, yes, but what does that have to do with electability?
Consider the 2008 election, for example. · Sep 25 at 4:27pm
You have a point.
Jul '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
To paraphrase Reagan (and Lincoln), 2012 really does seem to be shaping up as the last best hope for limited government. There has been a groundswell of support for scaling back the size and scope of government. The GOP would be wise to take this seriously, as it looks like Floridians just did. If Romney wins the White House and returns to business as usual - lots of spending, just smaller annual increases - he could well be the last GOP president. A third party challenge in 2016 would be inevitable, and given the likely strength of the insurgency, the party could be irreparably damaged. Maybe that's a good thing, because if they can't change our trajectory when they're in power, what use do they serve?
This, in a nutshell, is why a Romney candidacy is so troubling. I'll vote for him if he gets the nomination, but I'm not at all confident it's a good thing for the party if he wins the general. It feels like playing Russian Roulette for the future of the country.
Edited on September 26, 2011 at 2:27amMar '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Paul A. Rahe: In my judgment, he is unqualified for the Presidency . . . at this time.
What, then, did the folks in Florida have in mind?
I think Mr Cain is advancing in years, so this may be his last chance. It's also probably the US's last chance... which makes the refusal to run of the experienced, qualified, Republicans all the more strange. Maybe experience isn't all that it is cracked up to be, which of course is why Mr Cain is a Tea Party favorite.
As to what the FL folks had in mind, there's a good piece at the corner. It was no subtle message - they voted for Mr Cain because they admire him and think he can save the country. The only thing that held them back was that they thought he couldn't win, but that may now change.
Given that our problems are primarily fiscal, I would be happy to have a President who is a mathematician, rather than someone who has sat in the Senate for a lifetime (or a few weeks in the case of Mr Obama).
As for foreign policy - Bolton for Secretary of State :-)
May '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
I believe Cain's personal biography and considerable accomplishments may outweigh his lack of elective success once the general republican electorate becomes familiar with him. One could argue that a degree in mathematics, masters in computer science, manager of over 400 Burger Kings, CEO of Godfather's Pizza, CEO of the National Restaurant Association, chairman of the Kansas City Federal Reserve, Baptist minister, talk radio host, faithful family man and cancer survivor make him over qualified for President. Not to mention being black, charismatic, unflappable and humble. He appears to me to be the most genuinely likeable man to run for President since Reagan. I would not discount his chances.
Jun '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
A lot of people assume that Romney will be an "easy out", but I'm not so sure. He's been at this for a while and he isn't the stiff he was in 2008.
Mitt isn't my cuppa -- I'm a Hoosier and I would rather Mitch -- but who's going to stop him and be a good matchup with the Anointed One?
Apr '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
This seems a tough standard by which to grade candidates' suitability for the office of the Presidency. Unless a candidate has previously served on the Senate Foreign Relations or Armed Services Committees, it is unlikely they could lay claim to material foreign policy experience.
More important in my mind are: clear-eyed commitment to the right principles; effective leadership & decision-making capability; and the good judgement to appoint to key positions those with the right expertise.
By the way, I do enjoy your posts immensely - please do keep 'em coming!
Apr '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Very much agree. His 'likeability factor' and the electorate's appetite for a candidate who is not a career politician are not to be underestimated in my mind.
Jun '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Frankly, his business accomplishments are in many ways more impressive than Romney's.
Mar '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
That's just it: he's been running for President for five years. You would expect him to have a mortal lock on this by now, but he doesn't. I voted for him in the Illinois primary in '08, mainly because my only other choices were Huckaby and The New York Times' Favorite Republican™.
Jan '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
I think the other candidates are afraid of three things: Obama's money, Obama's muscle (with the unions), and Obama's ruthlessness. He'll find the "oppo" research, and he'll use it. He'll send in the goons. He's got nothing else to run on, so his run will be all tactics and no principles.
Romney is the only one who can field a competitive organization, because he's the only one with the money in the bank.
The recent narrative is that the GOP contributors are hoping someone else gets in, and then they'll send the checks. Someone is going to have to show they can compete first, and then the money will follow.
For a long time, I thought that money was secondary. I'm not so sure anymore. 2008 changed my mind. If Obama wins with his record of inept leadership, utter mismanagement, and possibly criminal interference, then it will be forever clear that government skills are unimportant to getting elected. And that will be a very sad day for this country.
Please please please let me be wrong this time.
Jul '10
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Roberto
John Murdoch: Herman Cain's victory is remarkable--Michele Bachmann's loss (1.5%? One point five percent? Thirty-five percent below Jon Huntsman?) is stunning.
Any Ricochetistas have insight on the Florida straw poll? Did Bachmann campaign, or is this an indication that she... Wait, no.
What could she possibly have done to get thumped that badly? ·
I fear Prof. Rahe is correct. Actual conservatives are so disinclined to vote for a clear phony such as Romney they will flock in droves to any other candidate showing serious conservative principles who appears that they may be viable. Bachmann was a powerful beneficiary of that but given her performance in the previous debates the anti-Romney vote has abandoned her and moved on.
Really? I have tons of doubts 'bout the Mittbot. But why are we pretending Florida's silly straw poll is any more significant than this silly straw poll?
Summary:
Romney 51%
Perry 17%
Cain 9%
The fact of the matter is, plenty of conservatives will flock to all sorts of candidates when they know the vote doesn't really count. Which is why Ron Paul has more straws than donors.
Jan '11
Re: The Florida Straw Poll
Paul A. Rahe:
Romney is a man of considerable ability. But he is not a conservative. He professes to be proud of Romneycare – which means that he sees nothing wrong with the individual mandate contained therein – i.e., with forcing the citizens of Massachusetts to buy health insurance....The most that Romney’s admirers within our ranks can do is to reassure that he does not really believe what he says. “Trust Romney,” they say. “He is lying.”
At the risk of RINO Squshiness:
To be sure, Romney is no conservative. However, I point out two things. First, Romney has painted himself into a political corner such that he must act like a conservative or risk losing what remains of his credibility. He cannot afford another flip-flop.
Second, if -- and this is a big if -- we can hold or make gains in Congress, having Romney in the White House might be good enough. I simply cannot imagine Romney opposing legislation marshaled by Paul Ryan and pushed by Tea-Party Freshman.
With GWB, we put all our effort into the presidency and ignored Congress, to our peril. This time, we've got a better congress: let's use it.