The End of the Electric Car
Rational people have long argued that electric and hybrid cars must actually compete with "normal" cars in order to succeed. And that means without government subsidies, special fuel taxes, etc.
Now, despite all those billions in taxpayer subsidies and a string of debacles, it looks like the electric car train is coming to an end.
A123 is toast. Fisker is toast. Tesla is done for. All these hyped battery and superduperhypercapacitor companies are running aground, on the hard ground of a simple reality: gasoline/diesel are far, far, far better energy storage media than anything else. It is not even close.
In the meantime, conventional car companies have continued to optimize. 65-75 mpg internal combustion engine vehicles are now in the mainstream (from Volkswagen and others). To really show how far the industry has come, a recent TopGear shows a normal BMW 3-series consumes LESS fuel than a Prius on the same track and the same time.
The upshot is that the industry is falling back: it will adopt only those technologies that pay. Start-stop technologies work. Perhaps a series hybrid will pay, if the system is simple enough. But pure electric or "plug in" cars? Future generations will point to this era, along with the fuel celled car, tulip mania, the dotcom frenzy, and so many others, as another example of how smart people can close their eyes to simple fundamentals, and in so doing, lose their shirts.
The sooner the government figures this out and throws in the towel, the less money will be poured down this guaranteed rathole. And all those smart engineers can get to work doing things that might just work.
Alas, if "Global Warming" is any indicator, these government R&D payments will continue to drain the energies of intelligent people for the rest of human existence. What a blight. Is it any wonder that we only see innovation when the government is not footing the bill?
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Re: The End of the Electric Car
Fuel cells remain outrageously expensive and therefore suited only for exotic application (think: space shuttle). There is also the issue of the fuel itself. Hydrogen needs to be made and transported. You can make hydrogen from water if you use enough electricity, but with EPA shutting down power plants we don't exactly have enough surplus to displace fossil fuels. Hydrogen is also not very energy dense and extremely combustible, so fueling a car would be a spaceship-like exercise of high-pressure tanks and hoses, making Percival's Hindenburg example all-too-likely after a collision or gas station spark. Gasoline is actually quite forgiving in its handling properties; remarkable given the high energy density.
Fuel cells have been built to run on natural gas, but the membranes used to separate out the hydrogen rapidly get poisoned by impurities (did I mention how finicky fuel cells are about their feedstock?). So this amounts to the world's most expensive way to run a vehicle on natural gas. Just buy a Honda Civic NG instead.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 2:28amMay '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Hydrogen's energy density in terms of mass beats gasoline's by a wide margin (roughly 120 Megajoules/kilogram vs. 45 MJ/kg). That's why hydrogen is used as a high-impulse rocket fuel, where mass equals money.
However, for energy density in terms of volume, which is the driving requirement for cars, gasoline easily takes the prize. Even highly pressurized gaseous hydrogen has well under 1 kilowatt-hour/Liter, while gasoline is well over 10, approaching 15 kWh/L.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 2:56amRe: The End of the Electric Car
Mark Wilson
Hydrogen's energy density in terms of massbeats gasoline's by a wide margin (roughly 120 Megajoules/kilogram vs. 45 MJ/kg). That's why hydrogen is used as a high-impulse rocket fuel, where mass equals money.
However, for energy density in terms of volume, which is the driving requirement for cars, gasoline easily takes the prize. Even highly pressurized gaseous hydrogen has well under 1 kilowatt-hour/Liter, while gasoline is well over 10, approaching 15 kWh/L. · 54 minutes ago
Edited 52 minutes ago
Mark, Exactly! Thanks for clarifying. As you know, Kerosene has been used as a rocket fuel--most notably in the first stage of the mighty Saturn 1B and Saturn V boosters--but hydrogen wins, as long as you can deal with the cold liquid phase.
Aug '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
I'm for anything that gets the world of Jihadi oil. I don't really care how much that costs. Think of it as investing in defense.
May '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
When considering the costs of electric cars, people ignore maintenance savings.
Assume a 15-year life and some approximations of costs:
$100/year on oil changes = $1500
$40/year on state smog tests - $600
Regenerative braking reducing the required brake service $1000
Savings in emissions-related service in the 7th-15th years of ownership $2000 (it seems like most cars in that age range have an O2 or other sensor fail every year or two).
We really do not need much more technical improvement in batteries to make this feasible. Commoditization more than further basic technical improvements may be the biggest downward driver on costs.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
ctlaw: When considering the costs of electric cars, people ignore maintenance savings.
Assume a 15-year life and some approximations of costs:
Except that no electric car has shown anything close to this kind of longevity.
My laptop battery lasts just a few years - and cars are a more challenging operating environment.
A 10 year-old Camry is a much better bet than a 10 year-old Tesla with the same mileage.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 2:50pmMay '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
My laptop battery lasts just a few years - and cars are a more challenging operating environment.
A 10 year-old Camry is a much better bet than a 10 year-old Tesla with the same mileage.
There will likely be two different approaches to battery life (barring an improved technology).
The existing approach is to carefully manage the batteries to use only a small part of their capacity range (e.g., not let them go below 40% charge or more than 60% so that you are only making active use of 20% of the capacity). Prius has been made for over 15 years and we do not hear of mass battery failures.
My guess is that the batteries will become comoditized much the same as existing 12V car batteries are. At that point, you can use much more of the avialable capacity range because it will not be so bad to drop $1500 to replace a battery that fails at 6 years. If you are using 60% of the capacity vs. 20%, you can cut the size by two thirds while maintaining range.