The End of the Electric Car
Rational people have long argued that electric and hybrid cars must actually compete with "normal" cars in order to succeed. And that means without government subsidies, special fuel taxes, etc.
Now, despite all those billions in taxpayer subsidies and a string of debacles, it looks like the electric car train is coming to an end.
A123 is toast. Fisker is toast. Tesla is done for. All these hyped battery and superduperhypercapacitor companies are running aground, on the hard ground of a simple reality: gasoline/diesel are far, far, far better energy storage media than anything else. It is not even close.
In the meantime, conventional car companies have continued to optimize. 65-75 mpg internal combustion engine vehicles are now in the mainstream (from Volkswagen and others). To really show how far the industry has come, a recent TopGear shows a normal BMW 3-series consumes LESS fuel than a Prius on the same track and the same time.
The upshot is that the industry is falling back: it will adopt only those technologies that pay. Start-stop technologies work. Perhaps a series hybrid will pay, if the system is simple enough. But pure electric or "plug in" cars? Future generations will point to this era, along with the fuel celled car, tulip mania, the dotcom frenzy, and so many others, as another example of how smart people can close their eyes to simple fundamentals, and in so doing, lose their shirts.
The sooner the government figures this out and throws in the towel, the less money will be poured down this guaranteed rathole. And all those smart engineers can get to work doing things that might just work.
Alas, if "Global Warming" is any indicator, these government R&D payments will continue to drain the energies of intelligent people for the rest of human existence. What a blight. Is it any wonder that we only see innovation when the government is not footing the bill?
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Comments:
Nov '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
The only electric cars that make sense...
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
James Gawron
Less is more. ... To save a few minutes (stop lights slow cars net speed way down) you are willing to spend a ludicrous amount of money. You could take a taxi or rent a car every time you really needed to and come out way ahead at the end of the month.
And yet I own three cars. Why? Because time is worth money.
If I waste time, I am betraying the trust others have put in me to be as productive as possible.
Sep '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Nuclear power is no panacea. It has its own extremely high costs. It just has more potential available fuel. I believe pretty much every nuclear provider is subsidized just like all the rest.
That all being said, with the exception of some niche markets electric cars are an environmental and market failure. I live in Portland, Oregon and bike to work. I am not a Green - I do it because I hate gyms. But people continually go for vanity environmentalism in superbly wasteful ways.
The Leaf is a Coal-Powered Car. All electrics carry environmentally terrible batteries. And on my bike, I produce more greenhouse gas with my rear-end and breathing than a carpooler in a Corolla.
The fact is, we use energy. The tradeoffs are where it comes from and how efficiently.
The electric car has One advantage - more of the money goes to Chinese rare earth miners and American coal miners than OPEC members.
I'm not sure the difference is enough to carry the day.
Apr '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Mass transit owes more to government subsidy than anything as well. Once I get home, I'll check my "Economic Facts and Fallacies" by Thomas Sowell, but I do remember he notes there that the greatest percentage of mass transit use in America is in the New York City area. Like many projects created with governmental central planning, the concept "If you build it, they will come" still only works reliably in the movies.
Trains require infrastructure funding as well, and again the government falls flat. Locally, Sonoma and Marin Counties have been working on Sonoma Marin Area Rapid Transit, a project that is always low in funding such that their original scope has been cut back several times.* Even the supposed cost-cutting step of using existing abandoned heavy rails has not helped in the long run.
Electric cars and trains both require construction and funding. Most our cities cannot simply incorporate such methods of transit cheaply, nor at numbers that could accommodate a supposed boom in electric car use in ten years.
Hybrids I actually have little problem with, as they at least only add cost to the consumer and require no new infrastructure.
Apr '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
*Full disclosure: I am employed at an engineering firm that is involved with the SMART project.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
A great deal is made about the "efficiency" of electric cars. About 75% to 80% of the stored energy in the battery system is available for motion, as opposed to 20% of the stored energy in a tank of gas.
That word "stored" though, that's a killer.
Recharging the battery itself results in a charged battery, and heat. Energy loss is about 20%. Getting the power from the power plant to the recharger has loss: about 7% there. And your energy efficiency really can't be any better than the method used to generate it. If your power generation runs on sunbeams, gentle breezes, or happy thoughts, I have no idea how efficient that might be, but nasty fossil fuel systems top out around 40% There is also the problem that some of the power in the battery isn't really available. That might be as much as 20%, but I'm only a bit twiddler -- you'd need a real power tech to check my figures. At any rate the power you can get out is less than what you have to put in.
The upshot is my beater will beat your golf cart, for a while yet.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
My dad is the automotive engineer. I should run this by him again.
He's agin it.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
shorteddy:
The fact is, we use energy. The tradeoffs are where it comes from and how efficiently.
Just so. And we do not try to minimize energy use: we try to get the greatest return on all of our investments - investments that ultimately boil down to two variables: time and money.
Because if we truly cared more about reducing energy usage than anything else, then we would stop living.
When I die, I don't want them to say, "he sure saved energy." I want them to point out how much good I did with the time I had.
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Electric cars are niche vehicles. Battery power may make economic sense for certain fleet operators but not for anyone else. For the vast majority of consumers an automobile is an enormous investment. Mission flexibility ranks high as a purchase criterion.
I purchased my 11-year-old BMW two years back for $10,000. Most days my like-new car takes me the 32 miles to work and back. However, this weekend I will drive the car 400 miles to LA with one 10 minute fuel stop somewhere near Bakersfield. Try that in your $30,000 Nissan Leaf. And try selling it to a used car fan like me when it is 10-years-old and the $7,000 battery pack needs replacing.
Americans rightly relish their freedom of movement. I don't travel hundreds of miles most days but I could if I wished, and without permission from anyone. Leftists don't like this. In ObamaLand, only the great and the good should enjoy unfettered movement in their limos, jets and private rail cars. The rest of us might destroy the planet. So we must be controlled. The mandatory electric car is the functional equivalent of an internal passport.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 12:51amMar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Percival:
The upshot is my beater will beat your golf cart, for a while yet.
My point is that the electric car will never match the cost/performance of a internal-combustion car. Gasoline is orders of magnitude more energy dense than batteries, with accompanying cost disparities.
The market is beginning to realize this. The government may never get there. More than the wasted taxpayer dollars, we should bemoan the opportunity cost from engineers doing dead-end projects.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 12:50amRe: The End of the Electric Car
I have nothing against the wealthy splurging on impractical vehicles, from high-performance Tesla Roadsters to gas-burning Ferraris or anything else. Just don't force me to work longer hours subsidizing your ambition to appear morally superior.
And while we're at it: pay for your own d$@* condoms.
May '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Electric, schmetric. The authoritarian regulatory state will not stop until it bans the private automobile, period.
Edited on February 16, 2012 at 12:57amMar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
Percival:
The upshot is my beater will beat your golf cart, for a while yet.
My point is that the electric car willnevermatch the cost/performance of a internal-combustion car. Gasoline is orders of magnitude more energy dense than batteries, with accompanying cost disparities.
The market is beginning to realize this. The government may never get there. More than the wasted taxpayer dollars, we should bemoan the opportunity cost from engineers doing dead-end projects.
Agreed. If there is a crossover point due to oil prices going too high, we'll switch over to natural gas before they come up with a more cost-effective battery-powered car.
Electric cars, as George pointed out, are great for certain applications, but outside of those, they just won't cut it.
May '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Two years ago I got one of the free golf carts the government was giving away and I love it. It cost $6000 but I got a $6000 tax credit so basically it was free. I don't know why everyone who was paying more than $6000 in taxes didn't buy one.
May '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Trust the Market.
Dec '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
James Gawron
Less is more. ... To save a few minutes (stop lights slow cars net speed way down) you are willing to spend a ludicrous amount of money. You could take a taxi or rent a car every time you really needed to and come out way ahead at the end of the month.
And yet I own three cars. Why? Because time is worth money.
If I waste time, I am betraying the trust others have put in me to be as productive as possible. · 53 minutes ago
Apparently those who have put their trust in you have never heard of the law of diminishing returns. Obsessively saving a few extra minutes each morning doesn't make you more productive. Probably the worry and time spent buying, maintaining, insuring, and selling the three cars makes you considerably less productive. However, I will write a Member Feed Post to further express my point of view.
Regards,
Jim
May '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
A few years ago the buzz was about hydrogen and fuel cell cars. What happened to those technologies? From a cursory look they seem more efficient and enviromentally friendly.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Some people have an antipathy towards hydrogen.
Just one of those things.
The real problem with hydrogen would be the infrastructure that would have to appear for them to be practical. And again, you have to come up with the electricity to get the hydrogen out of water, so that little bottleneck is still there.
Personally, I think that fuel cells will probably be practical someday, or at least viable.
Jun '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
There is a Fisker showroom in Orange County, CA. It's very pretty. The car is very pretty. There's typically no one in the showroom. Maybe if they had a life-size cut out of Al Gore with a waving arm beckoning people to come in...on second thought...
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
In addition to the other named problems, hydrogen is also inferior to gasoline for energy storage. And fuel cells? The same core technology as batteries (very small membranes). But batteries are sealed systems, while fuel cells basically filter the impurities out of every load of fuel. Fuel cells are even more disastrous as a long term technology than are batteries.The market has already judged both technologies. And nobody will invest their own money in something that, once the hype passed, clearly could not compete.And that is what we are all about to see with electric cars and the flawed energy storage technologies they require.