The End of the Electric Car
Rational people have long argued that electric and hybrid cars must actually compete with "normal" cars in order to succeed. And that means without government subsidies, special fuel taxes, etc.
Now, despite all those billions in taxpayer subsidies and a string of debacles, it looks like the electric car train is coming to an end.
A123 is toast. Fisker is toast. Tesla is done for. All these hyped battery and superduperhypercapacitor companies are running aground, on the hard ground of a simple reality: gasoline/diesel are far, far, far better energy storage media than anything else. It is not even close.
In the meantime, conventional car companies have continued to optimize. 65-75 mpg internal combustion engine vehicles are now in the mainstream (from Volkswagen and others). To really show how far the industry has come, a recent TopGear shows a normal BMW 3-series consumes LESS fuel than a Prius on the same track and the same time.
The upshot is that the industry is falling back: it will adopt only those technologies that pay. Start-stop technologies work. Perhaps a series hybrid will pay, if the system is simple enough. But pure electric or "plug in" cars? Future generations will point to this era, along with the fuel celled car, tulip mania, the dotcom frenzy, and so many others, as another example of how smart people can close their eyes to simple fundamentals, and in so doing, lose their shirts.
The sooner the government figures this out and throws in the towel, the less money will be poured down this guaranteed rathole. And all those smart engineers can get to work doing things that might just work.
Alas, if "Global Warming" is any indicator, these government R&D payments will continue to drain the energies of intelligent people for the rest of human existence. What a blight. Is it any wonder that we only see innovation when the government is not footing the bill?
- Comment (47)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (8)
Comments:
Jun '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
I have been against the electric car for years. BUT, I think there is starting to be a place for them. The Leaf by Nissan is pretty interesting. Takes too long to charge but they can probably fix that over the years.
I have come to think that we need more Nuclear power plants and one of the things that they need is a place to store their energy during off hours (night). I think there is room for an electric vehicle in our lives, charged during the night. We often need a small car for short runs. Why can't we get the electric car to fill this important niche? It's better than taxis and buses and subways, etc. It can give movement freedom to all Americans -- just like the gasoline and diesel cars.
Really, these cars should be very cheap eventually. I just want a way to charge it automatically on off-peak power -- not having to plug it in would be nice. These things are solvable and could really have a positive impact on society.
We conservatives should support rational approaches to electric cars. (But, we need more nuclear power plants, first.)
Sep '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
The economic argument for electric cars is weak--in the extreme. Take away that $7,500 tax credit (increasing to $10,000 in Obama's new budget proposal), include the necessary modifications to the electric wiring in your home (oh--you live in an apartment building and can't wire three-phase, 480vac into the garage?), and then pay even off-peak rates: you'll never recover the added investment.
The only viable argument is political: an electric car is environmentally-correct. Except--it isn't. You charge electric cars at night--when there's no solar power, and practically no wind power. The electric grid is running on base load power--hydro, nukes, and coal.
Put another way, 47% of the nation's load is generated from coal. Getting the power from the coal-fired plant to that three-phase 480vac charging station in your garage involves various kinds of transmission loss. Storing power in the battery, drawing power from the battery, and converting that power into motion by electric motors involves lots more transmission loss. The end result is that the electric car is really about as "clean" as a coal-fired steam locomotive.
Apr '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
I can concede some of Larry's points in his post above. There could be a niche for the electric car. Unfortunately, the technology is not there yet, and it won't be there just because government is throwing money at it.
Also, the area electric cars might get the most use -- urban driving -- is presently the least prepared. I know the city of Portland, Oregon has planned for less parking in the city and resists anything that might add parking spaces. Electrics are good for short jaunts, but having to deal with a poor-parking situation as cities like Portland means using up more of the charge allowed.
Finally, batteries for these vehicles cost almost as much as used internal combustion engine vehicle. It's even more expensive to replace a spent battery. And as most point out, they require energy to charge, and that energy is generally coming from 'unenvironmental sources'.
Lastly, batteries require rare earth metals, which we primarily gain from China. China has shown it doesn't care how it gets those metals out of the ground, and there are sections of that country presently poison in the process. Batteries aren't that environmental either.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Larry Koler:
Really, these cars should be very cheap eventually.
Why do you think so? Is there any reason to think that storage in a battery (along with the 50% losses during charge and discharge) and an electric drive can ever compete with a tank of gasoline and an internal combustion engine in terms of cost?
The facts are the opposite: the fundamentals make electric cars more expensive than ICE cars. And this will not change.
Dec '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc,
An ultralite electric vehicle, based on existing trikes (three wheeled bicycles), that stay under 25 mph are still classed as bicycles. They don't have all the federal regulation and insurance that motorcycles and cars have. Ultralite canopies are available so you don't get caught in the rain. A storage rack behind the rider can easily carry 50lbs of groceries. The lithium batteries are detachable and recharge on 110v not 220. You of course could have more then one battery and have one all charged up and waiting at home and at work.
It could be done for less but you should probably want to spend about $4,500. All maintenance can be done by a local competent bike shop.
Regards,
Jim
Aug '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
<devil's advocate mode = on>
When oil companies get tax breaks, and when companies like GM and Chrysler get billions in subsidies, how can reasonable people quibble about subsidies for companies like Tesla?
If we believe that "zero-emission" vehicles have to compete on an "even playing field", we MUST be DAMNED sure that is actually IS an even playing field.
It's all well and good to say, "well, I oppose subsidies for any company," but the fact remains that companies that compete against "alternative energy companies " already receive a fair bit of help courtesy of taxpayers, and almost certainly will continue to do so.
If voters are unable to stop the big guys from feeding at the trough, does it not put the little guys at a disadvantage to block them from receiving subsidies?
<devil's advocate mode = off>
Jun '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
Larry Koler:
Really, these cars should be very cheap eventually.
Why do you think so? Is there any reason to think that storage in a battery (along with the 50% losses during charge and discharge) and an electric drive can ever compete with a tank of gasoline and an internal combustion engine in terms of cost?
...
(James, interesting points.)
Battery issues are probably solvable. Could be wrong. But, my gosh there are so few moving parts in a straight electric car that I am sure we will see real cars -- not toys like James G mentions -- that can eventually really change the urban lifestyle for the better.
Efficiency issues are there for any machine that uses large amounts of power. There is no perfect solution. But, Nuclear power comes close and it is the necessary ingredient before I buy into this completely -- but, I feel this way because going nuclear would prove to me that the wackos are finally being sensible about all the fake issues and looking squarely at the real issues. I'm willing to give on this issue but they have to make the first steps.
Apr '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
One of the big problems will still be street and city infrastructure. In engineering, I've seen a couple places call for charging stations (usually a city, state or federal government building or a company willing to spend that much money), but installation on existing areas will take work, especially considering that running conduit to a place that did not require power before is a tricky prospect. This is no small consideration.
Roadside installation will be even more problematic, and with the state of electric vehicles in flux combined with dwindling funds construction of new roadside charging stations will be difficult. Either you convince the public that using public money for charging stations is advisable (a difficult sell right now), or you force building owners to install them with new construction or building improvements -- which is liable to chase business away from these areas.
Taxpayers tend to get a bit grouchy when they are forced to fund something they cannot use themselves. So either you open up charging slots to anyone, electric or not -- which will make it difficult for electric owners to find charging spots -- or you disallow non-electrics, and thus grouchiness.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
I agree with Larry: there should be some niches that electric cars could dominate if we could finally realize the potential of nuclear power. I have heard (third hand) that electric golf carts have become superior in almost every way to gas golf carts. Considering that many car trips involve a distance and speed within the prowess of a golf cart, such "mini" cars might be profitable.
What always bugs me is the insistence by the "powers that be" that electrical or hybrid cars have to match a Corvette in terms of performance and endurance. If you're trying to roll a wheelchair up a mountain, don't make your first goal Mt. Everest.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
James Gawron: iWc,
An ultralite electric vehicle, based on existing trikes ....
It could be done for less but you should probably want to spend about $4,500. All maintenance can be done by a local competent bike shop.
Jim · 4 hours ago
Um. You can buy a Tata Nano for that - and get a "real" car that can go real speeds. Finding cracks in regulations does not show that the fundamental disadvantage of electric storage is solved.
Real people want vehicles that are like my boots: always there, always works, and always does whatever you want.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Larry Koler
(James, interesting points.)
Battery issues are probably solvable. Could be wrong. But, my gosh there are so few moving parts in a straight electric car that I am sure we will see real cars -- not toys like James G mentions -- that can eventually really change the urban lifestyle for the better.
This is a red herring. "Moving parts" is no longer the challenge. Internal combustion engines have moving parts - and they are good for hundreds of thousands of miles. Batteries do not have moving parts, and they start to degrade as soon as you use them.
The power electronics required for electric drive are not perfect; a lot of power goes through a lot of silicon. Capacitors and IGBTs and MOSFETs all die. Internal combustion engines in a Toyota usually outlive the electronic gadgetry.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Mendel:
What always bugs me is the insistence by the "powers that be" that electrical or hybrid cars have to match a Corvette in terms of performance and endurance. If you're trying to roll a wheelchair up a mountain, don't make your first goal Mt. Everest. · 2 hours ago
Perfect example! Nobody tries to roll a wheelchair up a mountain! That is what helicopters are for.
Today's cars *work*. Before they get replaced in a free market, either fossil fuels must go to some ridiculously high price (which they will not do if we use what is available), or the alternative must somehow be better. Electric cars will fail the "better" test forever, for the fundamental energy storage reason I give.
Dec '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
Larry Koler
(James, interesting points.)
Battery issues are probably solvable. Could be wrong...not toys like James G mentions
... Batteries do not have moving parts, and they start to degrade as soon as you use them.
iWc has got it. Not only are batteries very difficult technologies both to use and maintain but their manufacture is one of the most environmentally hazardous of all. The most hideous water polution is generated by battery plants. Imagine a scale up of 100,000 to one to meet the demand.
Less is more. My toy, as it was referred to, has no flaws. Even only a ten mile radius at 25mph (if you can peddle a little you can go faster and extend the range) only takes you 20 minutes to get there. Most milage is put on cars in short trips like the one I just described. To save a few minutes (stop lights slow cars net speed way down) you are willing to spend a ludicrous amount of money. You could take a taxi or rent a car every time you really needed to and come out way ahead at the end of the month.
Less is more.
Regards,
Jim
Jun '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
iWc
Larry Koler
Battery issues are probably solvable. Could be wrong. But, my gosh there are so few moving parts in a straight electric car that I am sure we will see real cars -- not toys like James G mentions -- that can eventually really change the urban lifestyle for the better.
This is a red herring. "Moving parts" is no longer the challenge. Internal combustion engines have moving parts - and they are good for hundreds of thousands of miles. Batteries do not have moving parts, and they start to degrade as soon as you use them.
The power electronics required for electric drive are not perfect; a lot of power goes through a lot of silicon. Capacitors and IGBTs and MOSFETs all die. Internal combustion engines in a Toyota usually outlive the electronic gadgetry.
The moving parts point addresses the cost issue not just the reliability issue. But, you are so right to point out how incredible the modern multi-part internal combustion engine is. It's a marvel.
You are also right about the power circuitry elements -- they do have life limitations.
Well, I want a comprehensive and intelligent trade study done before I will agree with you.
Oct '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
The viability of electric cars depends upon where you live and the profile of a typical round trip. I live in Switzerland, and if I had an electric car with a range of 60 km without firing up the petroleum engine, I don't think I'd have had to fill up the tank in the last 20 years (and yes, my car is that old).
Any concentrated energy source is potentially hazardous. Having seen two autos with full tanks of gasoline burn up in my lifetime (thankfully without any casualties), I'm well aware of this and disinclined to panic at reports of similar calamities with battery packs.
Here's a number to keep in mind when you're thinking about electric cars. If your house is well-wired, you can get about 2 kilowatts of power from an electric outlet (maybe less in the U.S. where they use quaint 120 V). What is the power delivered to your fuel tank by the gasoline pump? About 5 megawatts—around 2500 times greater. This is why charging times are so much longer than the time to fill up at the pump.
Nov '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
As a complete aside, one of the great joys of TopGear is how much they loathe the Prius. In the episode it debued, they shot it. One of the best episodes of television ever.
Apr '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
If people are become begin living in more urban and dense settings the impetus for public transportation will increase. Trains are very fuel efficient, a reason Greens like them. But for a train to be a worthy investment they really have to service very dense population centers. Thus I could envision in a city there being a place for short range small vehicles electric or otherwise to allow for easy movement in a neighbourhood, with public transportation allowing for movement across the city. The problem the US has is most people don't live in tight urban centers.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
This is not a problem. It is a wonderful feature of American life.
The promotion of trains is equally wrongheaded. A single freeway lane carries more people than a train track - and it gives them the freedom to carry much more, and have flexibility about destination and schedule.
Aug '10
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Always heard that it takes $6 gas to make it even start to pay. So I am a bit hesitant to let the government in on it as they will probably try that next.
Mar '11
Re: The End of the Electric Car
Larry Koler
Well, I want a comprehensive and intelligent trade study done before I will agree with you. · 21 hours ago
The great thing about the world we live in is that there is a living, continuous trade study, thanks to the power of the marketplace.
And the results are in: Electric cars are abject failures. The more non-fuel energy storage that is required, the less competitive the technology.