The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
In the third segment of my interview with Peter Robinson on Uncommon Knowledge, Robinson notes his skepticism:
And now, on to a gigantic claim—maybe the most arresting claim in Left Turn. … Listen to what Tim Groseclose contends. Quote—my results suggests that media bias aids Democratic candidates about 8-10 percentage points in the typical election. I find, for instance, that if media bias didn’t exist … deep breath … then John McCain would have defeated Barack Obama 56-42, instead of losing 53-46. [pause] Ah come on! How can you know such a thing?
I’ll note my response in a moment. But first let me relate a personal story: One of my high school friends, after watching this video, sent a congratulatory email, but also noted, “I noticed the ole Groseclose giggle. Some things haven’t changed.”
That was my first response to Robinson’s challenging question—the Groseclose giggle. One reason was that his “Ah come on” genuinely caught me by surprise, and I thought it was genuinely funny. But another reason was nervousness. I wasn’t sure how to answer, and the giggle bought some time.
“I have to admit, yeah, there are a lot of assumptions—there’s uhh…” I responded, still trying to buy some time.
“Well, take us through that,” said Robinson.
I was actually halfway coherent after that. I explained my estimate of the aggregate slant of the entire U.S. media – about 58. I also explained my estimate of the PQ of that average American voter—about 50.
I also noted a concept, which, as far as I am aware, no scholars or pundits have ever talked about before Left Turn. This concept is the “natural views of the average voter.” These are the views—specifically, the PQ—that the average voter would have if there were no media bias.
If my results are approximately correct—that the average slant of the media (58) is really to the left of the PQ of the average American voter (50)—and if the media really have an effect on our views, then the following must be true: The natural views of the average voter must be below—i.e. are more conservative—than a 50 PQ.
At this point in the video I start talking with my hands. My right hand is representing 58, the aggregate slant of the U.S. media. My left hand is representing the natural views of the average voter, which must be a number below 50. I’m occasionally motioning to a point between my two hands. That point represents 50—the artificial views that we currently observe in the average voter.
As I explain, the media is pulling the average voter to the left—ie. in the liberal direction. Meanwhile his natural views are pulling him to the right. However, I’m sure I confused many viewers. I use my right hand to represent the media. And when I mention that the media pull the voter to the left, I motion to the right.
To any reader who was confused, I blame my 10th grade Algebra II teacher, Mr. Hooks. As he and all other algebra teachers teach us, when we graph things on a number line, we usually place higher numbers to the right. Because higher PQs mean more liberal views, on a number line, higher numbers (i.e. those to the right on a number line) mean more liberal views.
Next, I explain that these two forces—represented by my right and left hand—are tugging on the average voter. Next, I note that, according to the results in Left Turn, the media force is stronger than the natural-views force. Specifically, of the sum of the forces pulling on the voter, the media possesses 7/10 of those forces; while the natural views only posses 3/10 of those forces.
“That’s a bold statement,” I concede to Robinson. “That says the media has more of an effect on us than things like our parents, our DNA, our upbringing.”
Finally, I note, “From there, it’s just an algebra problem to say what is that number [i.e. the natural views of the average voter].”
I didn’t discuss it in the interview, but in case you’re interested, here’s the algebra problem. Let x be the natural views of the average voter. Then, given my above estimates—specifically the 58, 50, and 7/10 numbers—we can find x by solving the following equation: 50 = (7/10)*58 + (3/10)*x.
If you do the algebra, you find that x approximately equals 31.3. As I discuss in the book, that is approximately the PQ of the average Texas voter. Remember that the current PQ of the average American is about 50, which happens to be the PQ of the average voter in a typical purple state, like Iowa or Nevada.
Thus, if all the above assumptions and calculations are correct, then we get the following conclusion: If we could magically eliminate media bias, then America would begin to think and vote, not like Iowa or Nevada, but approximately like Texas.
Robinson expresses more skepticism. For instance, he notes:
But this notion that the media has—that it’s nurture, so to speak, rather than nature, and that the nature is being done by the Sulzberger family who own the New York Times, for example—are you positing that? That sounds like something that is harder to measure in and of itself—that it’s a derivative measurement of a derivative measurement. How solid is it?
Let me say, I’m sympathetic with Robinson’s skepticism. For that reason, I have written this companion paper, which gives some more details of how I calculated the media lambda. Let me also say that I’m a little skeptical of 7/10 estimate for the media lambda. That is, once more academic studies try to measure it, I could easily imagine data that could prove it to be as low as, say, .4, or as high as say, .85. The former number would imply that the natural views of the average American are more like the views of the average Virginia or Florida resident. The latter number would imply that the natural views of the average American are more like the views of the average Utah resident.
Still I’m very confident that the true value of the media lambda is approximately 7/10. And I’m confident that my above conclusion is correct: That without media bias America would think and vote approximately like Texas. I’ve written a recent op-ed explaining that conclusion. In a recent video, Fox News’ David Asman notes my conclusion and suggests a bolder conclusion: If media bias didn’t exist, maybe America would enjoy the recent economic success that Texas is enjoying.
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Comments :
Apr '11
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
As someone who scored a 5.4 on the PQ test and yet still considers himself of a fairly conventional and middle of the road point of view, I have to wonder what the "Average American" scoring 50 says about the notion that we are a "Center Right" nation?
May '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
The problem with figuring effects on "natural views" into a measure of electoral shifts from one party to the other is that it assumes swing voters are driven primarily by deep political philosophy and long-held beliefs. That assumption is false.
Both parties have led us to dismal predicament, but there is a world of difference between them. A voter can quite easily hate the party he votes for and yet consider it a drastically better option than voting for the other party. The media could skew perceptions greatly without pushing that person into the opposing party's hands.
Frankly, I think people who fail to recognize this vast chasm between the parties either don't care to or are somewhat innocently oblivious to reality. Media absolutely has a powerful effect on such people — extraordinarily so — but rarely does so by affecting core values. Swing votes are driven more by whim and circumstance than careful, comprehensive and long-term considerations.
But perhaps I misunderstand your argument.
In any case, modern America is not as broadly conservative as conservative pundits like to pretend. The same people who call for small government in theory often demand big government in practice.
Jun '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
American liberal media bias seems to affect Europe pretty strongly. This is just anecdotal, but the Europeans seem to think:
"Tea Partiers are dangerous white-supremacists who couldn't possibly be concerned about debt or federal taxes, because they're just poor uneducated Walmart shoppers who pay little or no income tax now. So, the Tea Party thugs just pretend it's about Obama's overspending, but it's all about race."
Dec '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
Peter probably has more practice in front of a camera. For example, he always gestures with his hand to indicate the "forward slash" in the UK url; his gesture appears correct to the viewer, but would be a back slash, viewed from his chair.
I also cracked-up a bit listenng to his R.J. Moeller interview; whom else would naturally exclaim, "jeepers!"?
Edited on Aug 26, 2011 at 1:13pmAug '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
Tim,
I haven't read the book but from this post and the Uncommon Knowledge interview I am a bit worried that your calculation of the media effect is implicitly assuming linearity of the effect based on evidence about a marginal shift.
It's one thing to show that a small increase in right-skewing media drives a small bump in Republican voting, it's quite another to extrapolate this across the range and say that a large increase in right-skewing media (ie, large enough to push the media to the center) would yield a large increase in Republican voting. I'll be blunt and say that your extrapolation seems implausibly large. Rather, I'm thinking that there may be "low hanging fruit," perhaps as a matter of voter turnout, that can be captured by a modest increase in conservative-leaning media but a bigger bump would have diminishing returns.
On the other hand, the Fox News study is measuring a short term effect and it's quite likely that there are long-term cumulative effects of media exposure in terms of forming political ideas and partisan identification. In this sense the true long-run effect may be bigger.
May '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
Professor, this is fascinating stuff. I have to say, though, (having yet to read your companion paper) that my biggest point of skepticism is when you say, "Still I’m very confident that the true value of the media lambda is approximately 7/10." I look forward to having my mind changed.
I also wonder if there is interaction between "natural views" and the media lambda, so that it might be a nonlinear or differential equation instead of a linear algebraic one. For example, if the media lambda were suddenly reduced to zero so the media had no net influence on voters, would the natural views of the voters change? We would certainly get different election results, and we know from experience that people's views change according to what happens in real life. So would people like the right wing governments they would be electing? Or would they shift their "natural views" to the left to compensate and keep things the same, because by definition, voters prefer the governments they have been electing with a 7/10 media lambda (maybe this point is arguable)?
So many questions left to explore!
Aug '11
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
GIGO = Garbage In, Garbage Out.
If MSM is feeding people with left-slanted and incorrect news reports, then people will come to incorrect conclusions. Quality decisions depend on quality information and that is just what we are not getting from MSM.
It takes a working knowledge of probability and statistics to realize just how much smoke is being blown your way.
Dec '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
If one center represents the mean or average on a scale of political beliefs, and the other center represents the median position, the position where there are an equal number with lower and higher scores, a center (median) that's right of center (mean) makes a lot of sense.
Mar '11
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
Ok, so if we could eliminate media bias, Iowa and Nevada would start voting like Texas, and perhaps Illinois would start voting like Iowa.
But...what about Texas?
We'd have to start putting Thorazine in their water supply!
May '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
The effects of hidden agendas (usually leftwing) are more insidious than open agendas (usually rightwing), which is why even with the latest infusion of rightward options, we're still at a disadvantage.
E.g., Limbaugh may have a PQ of 5, but he likely sways the PQ of a voter less than a supposedly unbiased news show with a PQ of 60, since the voter is "on alert" for bias or misrepresentations when listening to Rush in a way that he isn't when listening to Bryan Williams.
Mar '11
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
By the way, my PQ was 7.7, so I'd probably need to be locked up, or at least closely watched.
May '10
Re: The Effects of the Media According to Left Turn: “Ah, Come On,” Said Peter Robinson
Excellent point.