"The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
This item caused alarm when it was published on April 24 on a website run by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. It turned out to be a hoax, apparently, written by an Iranian blogger who claimed to be as surprised as anyone to see it picked up in Iran's official media.
The day after Iran's first nuclear test is a normal day.
The day after Islamic Republic of Iran's first nuclear test will be an ordinary day for us Iranians but in the eyes of some of us there will be a new sparkle.
It's a good day. It's seven in the morning. The sun is not fully up yet but everywhere is bright. In the northern hemisphere many countries are beginning the day...
The day before, probably in central deserts of Iran, where once Americans and some other Western countries wanted to bury their nuclear waste, an underground nuclear explosion has taken place. The strength of the explosion was not so great as to cause severe damage to the region nor so weak that Iranian scientists face any problems in running their tests.
Today is a normal day like any other. Like 90% of the year, there is news about Iran, and these are the headlines which can be seen on foreign news sites:
Reuters: Iran detonated its nuclear bomb
CNN: Iran detonated nuclear bomb
Al-Jazeera: The second Islamic nuclear bomb was tested
Al-Arabia: The Shia nuclear bomb was tested
Yahoo! News: Nuclear explosion in Iran
Jerusalem Post: Mullahs obtained nuclear weaponWashington Post: Nuclear explosion in Iran, Shock and despair in Tel Aviv
Meanwhile, the domestic media will offer many congratulations to the Hidden Imam and the Supreme Leader:
Keyhan: Iran's first nuclear bomb was tested
Jomhoori-e-eslami: Iran successfully carried out a nuclear test
Iran: By order of the president, Iran's 100% homemade nuclear bomb was tested
Ettela'at: Iran's much anticipated nuclear bomb exploded
But the headlines about which this blogger is fantasizing are of course exactly those we would see.
Meanwhile, a Hezbollah mouthpiece newspaper in Lebanon, Al-Akhbar, is claiming that Iran has threatened to bomb US and NATO bases in Turkey if they're used as a platform against Syria:
A columnist for the Lebanese daily Al-Akhbar, which is close to Hizbullah, claimed that Iran had threatened Turkey that if it were to be used as a platform for action against Syria, then Iran would bomb US and NATO bases in Turkey.
He added that Iran sees the preservation of the Syrian regime as the preservation of Iran and the Lebanese government.
Ahmadinejad, last Thursday:
"I just tell them (world powers), 'Do not waste any energy and do not make yourself tired, as eventually you have to take all your efforts for making us give in to any compromise to your graves,'" Deutsche Presse-Agentur quoted the Iranian president as saying on Wednesday.
It's not all happening in a far-away place of which Americans know nothing. It's already reaching right to JFK:
At the end of May, a United States federal jury convicted a Shiite Imam of conspiring terrorist attacks at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport. Kareem Ibrahim, 65, was convicted in New York on charges of plotting to attack a public transportation system, attack aircraft and aircraft materials, and conspiracy to destroy JFK airport facilities. Ibrahim, originally from Trinidad and Tobago in the Caribbean, will be sentenced on October 21, 2011. He faces life imprisonment. ...
During the plotters' trial, interesting information on Iran's role in Latin America came out. First, the Iranian Embassy in Venezuela was allegedly the coordinating center for Iranian activities in Latin America. Evidence showed that the Iranian Ambassador in Caracas received reports on how to infiltrate the Guyanese army and government. It is very probable that he receives similar reports from "spies," based in several Latin American countries. The bottom line is: the Iranian Embassy in Venezuela, playing a central role, shows the deep complicity between Tehran and the Caracas government. One of the plotters was actually arrested while aboard a flight to Venezuela, in an attempt to catch the weekly flight to Tehran. Venezuela, because of the total lack of transparency on what, and whom, is aboard flights, has caused the U.S. to be concerned about the weekly Venezuela-Iran flights, said General Douglas Fraser, the head of the U.S. Southern Command.
I understand, I think, why the world is failing to take this all that seriously. We lived through the Cold War and survived. We live with a nuclear North Korea, a nuclear Pakistan. No one would argue that these are stable, responsible states. Yet we're still alive. MAD seems to work. (Of course, those who died in the Cold War aren't around to make the case that the war wasn't survivable.)
But the level of destabilization in this region is right now really extreme. Not unprecedented, but extreme. The logic of what I wrote here seems to me obvious:
The mere announcement of the news that Iran has crossed the nuclear threshold will have an immediate, devastating effect on Turkey’s stature—that day will be the last we ever hear about a rising Turkey, Anatolian tigers, the Islamic-economic dynamo, or the revival of the Ottoman Empire. Several events will follow predictably: Russia and Israel will be compelled to respond, technically and doctrinally, and the Egyptians and Saudis will race to develop a bomb of their own. Turkey will have a choice: adopt toward Iran a submissive, marginalized posture, or acquire its own nuclear weapon. There is no third option.
If Turkey goes nuclear, the material costs will be massive, the political costs even greater. Turkey has been a party to the NPT since 1980. A nuclear Turkey would not only lose all hope of joining the EU, but be ostracized from it and lose all diplomatic influence in the West. It would become a pariah in NATO. NATO, in fact, would probably collapse, along with its nuclear-backed security guarantee. Whatever is left of the international nonproliferation regime would also collapse. An already grossly unstable region, in other words, would swiftly be armed to the eyeballs with weapons each and every one sufficient to destroy a city. Then it is a simple matter of time and odds: Sooner or later, one would be used.
In other words, regional and international nuclear anarchy would be unleashed, with Turkey at the center of it—a bridge between East and West, just as its leaders proudly assert it to be, but not in the way they would ever wish it. Even if we assume a fundamentally rational Iran that can be deterred from first use by the logic of Mutual Assured Destruction (alone quite a leap of faith), any rational strategic planner should recall that MAD worked only through the grace of God: The world came appalling close to the brink more than once. No reasonable strategist could expect this kind of luck to hold indefinitely, certainly not in a region like this—it is like banking on the idea that there hasn't been a major plane crash in the past few months, so there will never be a plane crash again.
Does anyone disagree with this analysis? If so, can you tell me why? I'd love to be able to say to myself, "Relax, take the day off, it will probably be fine." I haven't thought of one yet.
And if you can't either, why aren't you panicking?
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Mar '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
If our Commander in Chief is not panicking, there is clearly nothing to worry about.
Jan '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
We should all just pack up and move to the moon.
Oct '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
It's time for Turkey and Japan to have their own nuclear weapons. Can't rely on America forever for global security.
Jun '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
We face a greater crisis with the proliferation of nuclear weapons than we faced during the Cold War, but without the leadership or even serious appreciation of the problem in Washington DC that we had during the Cold War.
It's not just the President and the current administration, it's all of Washington DC. Our politicians are like children in a burning house demanding their morning cereal, completely oblivious to anything beyond their own desires.
We can't stop Iran from getting nukes. What I think will happen is someone will set off a nuke, a group, not a nation, and provoke a war that will so devastate the entire region (and not necessarily a nuclear war) that it will be decades before the nations of the middle east recover. The question is, how many of us will it take with it?
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Robert E. Lee: We face a greater crisis with the proliferation of nuclear weapons than we faced during the Cold War, but without the leadership or even serious appreciation of the problem in Washington DC that we had during the Cold War.
It's not just the President and the current administration, it's all of Washington DC. Our politicians are like children in a burning house demanding their morning cereal, completely oblivious to anything beyond their own desires.
We can't stop Iran from getting nukes. What I think will happen is someone will set off a nuke, a group, not a nation, and provoke a war that will so devastate the entire region (and not necessarily a nuclear war) that it will be decades before the nations of the middle east recover. The question is, how many of us will it take with it? · Jun 25 at 3:12am
Wow, you sure succeeded in setting my mind at ease.
Oct '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Not to sound complacent, but…having a warhead that works under lab conditions is not the same as firing off a weapon with confidence it will get where you want it to and work when it arrives. The latter requires very, very expensive testing and ancillary capabilities. To attempt a nuke strike and not have it work is to invite retaliation w/o corresponding benefit. For nation-states, which possess a return address, this may be more of a brake on aggressive ambition then you credit. Then again, prediction based on rational thought breaks down for millenarians, as arguably some leaders (many? most?) are in Tehran. MAD only works when both sides share a preeminent value: survival. As to regional political ramifications, I defer to you. Is there no chance Turkey would, rather than bankrupt itself building nuclear weapons, retreat under NATO’s nuclear umbrella? Nukes lose appeal when you have to pay for them and all the usual appurtenances. Also, it’s harder to hide big projects today. Syria may wish, especially today, that it had not spent the money it did on the nuclear site Israel took out a few years back.
Mar '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
I agree with HVTs above. The Iranians seem to crave hegemony in the region, which would not be possible if they are destroyed first. Although they talk a big game, I don't see many actions from Iran suggesting that national martyrdom is on their short-term agenda.
If Iran were to launch a serious attack against Israel, Turkey, or other American interests, they must know that an incredibly asymmetric force will be brought to bear against them. This would not be mutually assured destruction, but assured Iranian destruction (not that the damage to Israel or Turkey would not be tragic).
Claire wrote: "the Egyptians and Saudis will race to develop a bomb of their own."
A regional nuclear proliferation seems much more threatening than the possibility of Iran launching a unilateral attack.
Edited on Jun 25, 2011 at 4:16amMar '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Claire,
the US has based nuclear weapons in Turkey before. Why wouldn't we do it again?
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Mendel
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Claire,
the US has based nuclear weapons in Turkey before. Why wouldn't we do it again? · Jun 25 at 4:15am
We still do. Read that to get a sense of the signals we're giving.
Edited on Jun 25, 2011 at 4:44amRe: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Of course there's a chance, but look at it from Turkey's point of view: Would you put your confidence in NATO's nuclear umbrella at this point?
I think the author of that piece is exactly right--the day after the test will be a normal day. But afterwards, a lot of Shi'ites in the region will be facing the prospect of "genocide," which the Iranians will "not be able to watch silently," and when they provide "humanitarian assistance" everyone will be too scared to stop them. Think about it: We're already too scared to do a thing about Assad. They've established deterrence--without the Bomb. Think everyone in the region hasn't noticed that?
Mar '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Mendel
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Claire,
the US has based nuclear weapons in Turkey before. Why wouldn't we do it again? · Jun 25 at 4:15am
They still do. · Jun 25 at 4:19am
Thank you for the correction--my ignorance about the Middle East knows no bounds.
But still: why would Turkey be forced to build its own nuclear weapon? Why couldn't it use our nuclear umbrella? I would imagine that any leader in Washington would gladly re-mobilize some of our (extensive) arsenal, if it meant preventing yet another country from going nuclear.
Edit: thanks for the article. But based on the reasoning cited for drawing down the nuclear arsenal, I would argue for shifting more towards Turkey. Iran now seems to be at least as grave a threat as Russia to US interests, if not the US itself.
Edited on Jun 25, 2011 at 4:49amRe: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
I agree. And I don't think anyone is crazy enough to launch a nuclear exchange deliberately. But I think you have to experience the level of sheer day-to-day carelessness and recklessness in this region to grasp how possible it is that it could happen by accident.
Jun '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
I think Pakistan, rather than Iran, will be the key here. And the flash point may not even involve the west. China vs India is a serious possibility, and with Pakistan offering China permanent basing rights for the People's Liberation Army Navy, India is bound to feel boxed in.
As I said, I don't think a nation state will take responsibility for the first nuke to go off, it will be a radical group of some ilk, but I think the nuke will probably come from Pakistan, not Iran.
A nuclear weapon does not even have to explode to ignite the world, just the attempt will spark hasty responses from world leaders. Even though we know the threat is real, the event coming, our response will not likely be reasoned, but something rash decided in the heat of the moment for domestic political considerations.
May '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Claire Berlinski, Ed.: Does anyone disagree with this analysis? If so, can you tell me why? I'd love to be able to say to myself, "Relax, take the day off, it will probably be fine." I haven't thought of one yet.
And if you can't either, why aren't you panicking?
Sorry, Claire, this is several orders of magnitude removed from the GOP primary so I can't tell you to relax about this one. Panic, though, is a destructive emotion. The better response here is determination. Tragically, determination seems to be totally lacking in the quarters where it is most needed. I think the limp response suggested in these headlines will be the order of the day if (when?) Iran tests a bomb. I don't like to draw historical parallels too closely, but I can't get the image of Joe Kennedy smugly assuring everyone that Germany would be satisfied with the Sudetenland out of my head.
Edited on Jun 25, 2011 at 5:30amRe: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
There doesn't even have to be an attempt. Just a belief that there was.
Oct '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Wouldn’t want to trust NATO, but Turkey might take the risk when weighed against cost of credible nuke capability. I have doubts about NATO’s survivability. (See Gates 10 June speech.) But it caused regime change in Serbia and is working toward same in Libya—would feel compelled to do something for Turkey. Might finally ignore Russia and deploy missile defenses. Hard to imagine Iran strike and NATO just issuing statements. That would end the alliance for all practical purposes. As for Syria, it’s hugely more complicated (higher risk/cost) as mil operation than Libya. NATO’s highly selective use of force is incoherent unless you realize practicality counts above high ideals. But not sure deterrence is operative concept here. Assad can’t be deterred from murder when only alternative is death or exile…Nothing to fear from us when worst case is upon him. Similarly, Iran’s Mullahs only have to fear for survival if they strike out first.
Feb '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
The dangerous period is between the time you're intentions to develop a bomb are clear and the time you get one. Once you have a bomb, your chances of invasion are nil even if the other country has them. Iran is much farther down the road towards nuclear development than Turkey. The only way Turkey will remain independent is if they can leapfrog development either with US or Israeli help. The only way Turkey will get US help is with blackmail, which amounts to nothing more than telling the Americans what the reality will be. Otherwise, Turkey will be in Iran's orbit just as Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon will be. The irony is the US dismantled Iraq's nuclear program, so Iraq winds up in Iran's orbit. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty is an anachronism and the sooner it is recognized, the better. Especially for countries like Turkey.
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Claire, my own sense is that people are suffering from sensory overload right now. There seems to be an existential threat almost everywhere they look these days, from a government that wields an iron fist at home and a limp wrist overseas, to allies that are ostracized and enemies that are heartened. The threats are so many that it begins to feel a little like shoveling snow in a blizzard which, by the way, is precisely what I believe the left, both at home and abroad, wants. And, oh yes, those who are lucky enough to have jobs must continue to go about their lives and provide for their families. Which isn't to say that they aren't engaged. Rather, I think they are practicing triage at the moment. First order of business is restoring pro-American governance to America. Without that, nothing else is possible anywhere.
Feb '11
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"
Claire, I am panicking. Okay, I’m not actually panicking. It’s more like a constant sense of dread. I’m trying as best I can to attend to the duties I have in case we do get lucky again. I don’t think there’s anything I can do about the nuclear problem but pray.
Jul '10
Re: "The Day After Iran's First Nuclear Test is a Normal Day"