The Dark Horse Won't Win
Ed Kilgore at the New Republic warns the GOP that drafting a half-hearted candidate to run in 2012 won't work. He writes:
The truth is that Republicans ought to take a good honest look back at the Thompson campaign and ask themselves if they really want a candidate who has to be talked into
running. Indeed, Fred is by no means the first to be coaxed into a race by insiders who made it sound easy to convert the acclaim of elites into caucus or primary wins.
Political history is littered with Big Dogs who quickly got into trouble in the tall grass of actual nomination contests: Wilbur Mills in 1972, who won a booming 4 percent in New Hampshire; Birch Bayh in 1976, who lost with a seventh-place finish in Massachusetts; Lloyd Bentsen, who was destroyed by Jimmy Carter despite raising tons of money; John Connally, another big fundraiser who couldn’t win actual votes; Howard Baker, who dropped out after New Hampshire in 1980; and Phil Gramm, who burned out in 1996 ...
The moral of the story for 2012 is that the presidential campaign trail is brutal and unforgiving—particularly right now, and particularly for Republicans. The early Republican caucuses and primaries will be dominated by conservative activists who want a crusade, not a mere political campaign, and will almost certainly punish candidates who don’t give the impression that they will fight for every vote ...
So as the days rush by and this already slow-to-develop Republican nomination contest begins in earnest, insiders hoping for dark horse salvation need to get a grip and realize that it’s very unlikely they’ll be saved from this field by Christie or Jebbie or Petraeus or Rubio or Perry.
Wise words for Republicans? Or do we feel confident our best candidate won't have to be coaxed into running?
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Jun '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
The last paragraph says it all, doesn't it? That we seem to be looking at a field of gutless wonders. Even Pawlenty's team quickly backtracked on his "announcement" that he was running. "No, no...stop that. There'll be no 'running'. We're just exploring."
Meanwhile the President IS running while Republicans are exploring. Doesn't infuse a lot of confidence, does it? And I thought jackasses were the animals that were difficult to move forward. Is Obama the mouse that's roaring and frightening these elephants?
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
We don't need another Cuomo, as Tina Turner might say. Speak now, or forever hold your fire.
Jul '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
In fairness, Fred Thompson did get diagnosed with lymphoma in 2007.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Fred Thompson, who I would have voted for if the staggered primaries system had not denied me that opportunity, lost because he lacked charisma. If you follow his Twitter stream or radio show, you know he's a casual, funny guy. But he was all grimaces on TV during the campaign. Next to the smiling pretty boy, Romney, and soft-spoken Huckabee, he looked especially dour.
Ironically, though Thompson was the only professional actor, he was brutally honest and played no games. Had he tried to smile and communicate hope, I think he would have done better.
But I could be wrong. I'd like to think a Congressman or Governor doesn't have to abandon his responsibilities for a year to effectively campaign.
Voters for Romney, Huckabee and Giuliani tended to be one-issue voters, judging from folks I talked to. Perhaps Republican voters were too divided to embrace a rounded candidate.
Or perhaps pre-Obama America did not appreciate brutal honesty so much.
Can we assume that whatever methods got politicians elected to their current offices would work in a Presidential campaign?
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
I agree. It's one of the reasons I will support Mitt Romney. It's nearly impossible to defeat a sitting President. Everyone needs to stop comparing "imperfect" candidates to fantasy ink blots whose flaws and limitations materialize once declared and running.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
I agree. It's one of the reasons I will support Romney. People need to stop comparing real (i.e. imperfect) candidates to both ink blots that might run, and semi-legends of the past whose flaws have disappeared in the mists of time. Even Reagan had major flaws--BELIEVE IT.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
When I think of Bush and Bush Sr, I don't see evidence that voters require energetic candidates. Commitment seems more important than enthusiasm.
Generally speaking, though, leaders lean forward, followers lean back.
Aug '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Same here. All due respect to the good folks of Iowa, New Hampshire, et al - I'm pretty tired of them having such an unwarranted say in who I vote for in Tennessee.
Mar '11
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
And who is the Bright Horse?
I was just listening to Paul Ryan on the Mark Levin show (yes, I am not a Rino Squish) - Ryan was shocked by being invited to a speech at which he was trashed by the President of the United States.
I would hope that this might motivate Ryan to run, and debate the One head-on, but I don't know if he will.
They are bringing a gun to the fight and we are bringing Dark Horses...
Nov '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Fred Thompson made a half-hearted effort in the 2008 primary, then abruptly quit. I paid 50 bucks to subscribe to the podcast of his radio show, then he abruptly quit that too. I never got a refund of the money I paid for nothing, and my emails were never answered.
I used to like him a lot, I even read his book, Teaching the Pig to Dance. It’s a good book, but he didn’t learn to dance very well. If more people had subscribed to his radio show he’d probably be facing a class action suit right now.
He’s interesting but I’d never vote for him. He’s a quitter.
Leaving those who paid for his podcasts without so much as an explanation for not refunding their money was not the act of good guy, but more of a typical politician. Also, he’s a lawyer and that violated Rule 8.3 of the Rules of Professional Conduct for Lawyers, regarding basic honesty.
Edited on Apr 14, 2011 at 9:30amSep '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
David Williamson: I was just listening to Paul Ryan on the Mark Levin show (yes, I am not a Rino Squish) - Ryan was shocked by being invited to a speech at which he was trashed by the President of the United States.
I would hope that this might motivate Ryan to run, and debate the One head-on, but I don't know if he will.
I have the same hope, and for the first time I actually see it as a possibility. Being from Milwaukee, I hear a lot from Paul Ryan on local talk radio. Everyone here would love to see him run, but for the last couple years he always answers the same way. He has young kids and running for president just doesn't work for his family. I take him at his word.
However, what I saw yesterday was different than what I've seen in the past from Ryan. He seems to finally be moving beyond the mild mannered, "lets get this process moving forward" attitude, to the "these Democrats are actively undermining our national stability for political gain" attitude.
I now think there is a sliver of a chance that he might run.
Apr '11
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
I am tired of having to weed through a field of candidates whose ambition is for the office, not for the job that needs to be done. The presidency isn't a feather in the cap of a sterling career, nor should it be the result of a lifelong ambition. A John McCain candidacy was like the Olympics, every 4 years whether any one cared or not. Romney looks the same way, he wants the feather not the job. If the best we can do in '12 is trot out the same guys who've been wanting it for the past two elections, then heaven help us. Will our slogan be "same candidate, but now with Tea flavor!'
Edited on Apr 14, 2011 at 1:08pmNov '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Reagan had flaws? OK, I guess he was a human being. But Reagan didn’t abandoned his principles to try to make Tip O’Neill like him. Reagan took his case to the American people so Tip O’Neill had no choice but to go along with Reagan’s tax cuts. There isn’t any candidate in this discussion that could be relied upon to fight for anything because none of them believe in anything except that it would be cool to be president. Romney is probably the worst of the lot in that regard.
Apr '11
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Why is it the same guys are always trying to convince us, that NOW they understand what needs to be done, or NOW I get what you people really want. Last time we whittled down a field of men, and ended up with the same old guy who was unwilling to punch at the opposing candidate. That worked out brilliantly.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Worst case scenario: Romney cuts taxes and shrinks government not because it's in his heart, but because he wants a Reagan-like legacy (and because of a conservative Congress). I'll take it over another four years of Captain Socialism.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
We are well positioned to win this thing now. With an ample selection of budget-cutting governors who have actually run things. We should not wistfully hope for the next Reagan with over-long indulgence.
Not a huge fan of McCain, but he lost because the economy collapsed months before the election. Let's not draw too much from that loss (he could have won, if not for that unconquerable obstacle), nor leave us believe Obama is especially good at politics.
He is eminently beatable, and we can do it with the army we got.
PS, I woulda been a Thompson voter, too, and think he is unfairly singled out here. But name another drafted candidate who won. Anything.
Edited on Apr 14, 2011 at 10:11amMay '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Sorry, but unless you live in a blue or deep purple state, you may not realize that "we are well positioned to win this thing" may not be true.
Nov '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
Unless Boehner and the Republician establishment drive the Tea Party movement to a third candidate. That’s sure what it looks like they’re trying to do.
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
I think it's possible to be extremely skeptical and yet still be positive and optimistic. My skepticism comes from noticing the Harry Reid, Charles Schumer, and Barbara Boxer are still in office, and that Jerry Brown was elected. These were state-wide races that weren't even close. Yes, the GOP candidate will win Texas in 2012. Yes, Wisconsin happened, but still...
May '10
Re: The Dark Horse Won't Win
TeeJaw
Unless Boehner and the Republician establishment drive the Tea Party movement to a third candidate. That’s sure what it looks like they’re trying to do. · Apr 14 at 10:16am
True, but are any of the current crop rallying round the Speaker? T-Paw for one has come out strongly against. I don't think anyone can be nominated without substantial Tea Party support.