Last week, Mollie raised an interesting point about what a Mitt Romney nomination means for the Republican Party. In the comments, I shared my concern concerning the lean-Republican independents who make up much of the Tea Party, and who prior to 2009 were mostly inactive in politics beyond regularly voting.

The Tea Party is a collection of people who felt compelled to transition from citizens to activists in favor of limited government and fiscal restraint. Many sacrifice time away from family, work, and life in a desperate attempt to save the nation they love, from their perspective. My concern is that the Tea Party will recoil from supporting a Republican Party that is headed by John Boehner, Mitch McConnell, and Mitt Romney.

Crist Romney

I spoke with one such Tea Partier, Rebecca from Florida, over the weekend. She's a retired detective turned young stay-at-home mom, who labels herself a "generic Tea Partier." What she had to say was fascinating and illuminating, and it should concern just about every smart Republican. She was gracious enough to let me publicize her thoughts here at Ricochet.

Here's what she had to share:

"I became politically engaged after the 2008 election," Rebecca told me. "I used to only vote in Presidential elections and local elections that were of interest to me. In January of 2008 I saw Barack Obama give a speech and I was really wowed. He is quite a gifted speaker." She admits that she "liked what he was saying, but some things were just a little off."

She started listening to Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck again, wanting to hear what this Obama fellow was really about. But beyond that, she didn't engage in activism - she just showed up to vote for McCain, despite what she considered his "progressivism."

"Obama got elected. Then Obamacare was rammed through. I was appalled. I couldn't believe the shady way such important legislation was passed," Rebecca said. "I have some like-minded mommy friends and I got together with them. I joined our local 9/12 Project, and As A Mom and the TEA Party of Tampa Bay."

Via email and Twitter, Rebecca started sharing information, organizing, paying more attention to what was happening. She took early retirement in 2010 to stay home with her son (Benjamin - a great name, am I right?), and gave birth to another young son (Jameson) last May.

"You see, I now have *much* more to think about in regards to the future of our country," Rebecca said, and happily so. She redoubled her efforts, achieving a level of engagement in politics she'd never had before, and as you all know, Florida's Senate race was ground zero for this movement.

"Casting my vote for Marco Rubio in the primary and then again in the general gave me this amazing feeling of accomplishment," Rebecca said. "I felt like we had done it. First, when he beat Crist for the Republican nod. When he won the seat, I felt like I had finally been able to cast a vote for someone I *believed* in, instead of just choosing the least worst one."

"2010 was a real turning point for me. I watched the midterm election results as we won the House with some good, solid conservatives and I felt so proud and accomplished. I felt like we - the TEA Party, my mommy friends, ME - we had made a difference," Rebecca said. "We were helping to put our country back on the right path, and return to the ideals of our founders."

"Then came 2011," Rebecca says, and her mood clouds. "It felt like every time I turned around, John Boehner and Mitch McConnell were selling us out, hanging our Tea Party freshmen out to dry, and doing it for no apparent reason."

McConnell Boehner

She's unsure why this is. "Are they idiots, or just the worst chess/poker players ever? Every time they have an opportunity to limit government, reduce taxes, etc. they blow it."

And all the while, President Obama is able to "look like he's trying, he's really trying, but the 'Republican Controlled Congress' keeps getting in the way. The debt ceiling increases. The lack of a budget. The 30-odd House passed bills that Harry Reid won't allow a vote on." Indeed, Rebecca is so infuriated with the Congress' inability to carry their message or push back, she thinks a third party might be needed.

"I almost feel as though there needs to be a new party, a truly conservative party, that really represents us. Sometimes I feel like the GOP is more interested in protecting their jobs than in promoting conservative ideals. At least, that's what Boehner and McConnell make me think," Rebecca said.  "Why can't we have a party full of Rubios - candidates who believe in American exceptionalism and limited government, and do so unapologetically? Why do we have to have so many squishes?"

The Republican presidential stakes kicked in, and Rebecca engaged. Her hopes rise with Rick Perry's entrance, but then "he gets hammered for stupid things, and drops." She thought about Herman Cain, "but his lack of campaign management was disconcerting." She never really thought Bachmann would make it to Florida, and says "Erick Erickson has educated me too much to cast a vote for Rick Santorum."  She considers Ron Paul's views right on a number of accounts, but thinks his foreign policy is "crazy."

"So here I am, supporting Newt Gingrich," Rebecca says. "I'm not in love with Newt, but I trust him more to stay true to conservative ideals. The guy pushed Clinton right, for goodness sake. I only trust Mitt to stay true to himself."

So, Rebecca, about Mitt: why not Romney this time?

"I don't trust him, and I don't think he can win. He is utterly unaware of how offensive his disconnect with the average American is. He drops $10K bets like it's nothing. He thinks $342,000 isn't very much to make in a year," Rebecca said. "I don't begrudge him his wealth - he worked for it and earned it and that is admirable. But I hate his lack of awareness of how super-wealthy he is. His flip-flops are legendary."

"Oh, and he invented Obamacare."

"I see a Romney nomination causing Tea Partiers like me to tune out. We are already disheartened by the congressional leadership. Romney will be the final nail in the coffin. He is completely uninspiring, and is everything we have been working so hard to defeat within the GOP," Rebecca said. "Don't even get me started on that Bain Capital picture. Ugh. There is no way he can win. And I don't want to have to defend him while he tries."

"What is the point in becoming educated on candidates and politics, arguing with my friends, taking the time away from my family - to end up with the guy McCain can't even look in the eye. Why bother?" Rebecca says. "Obviously the "establishment" has already decided it's Romney's turn, and to hell with what we want. I feel like I'm being patted on the head and told "Now go vote for Romney like a good little girl. We know what's best."... I don't even do that to my 3-year-old. It's insulting. It doesn't make me want to campaign for him."

"It honestly makes me want to skip the election, but Obama scares me too much to do that. I do think a Romney presidency will hurt the GOP brand though, and make it hard for a real conservative to have a shot," Rebecca said. "I feel like this is so similar to our 2010 Senate race. Romney is the Crist candidate, loved by many and backed by the establishment. But we have no Rubio. Crist would have been an easy win. He was a liked governor. Without Rubio, he would have easily won the seat. Just because we don't have a Rubio in this race doesn't mean we need to settle for a Crist."

Rebecca feels pressure, among more longstanding Republicans, to get on board the idea of Romney. But she says she's more likely to disengage. This is part of my overall concern: where cycles of political strife often include longtime activists bemoaning flawed nominees (as we saw in 2008 with McCain, and 1996 with Dole) and threatening to walk away, these are paid professionals who have been actively engaged in politics for decades. The Tea Party has a much shorter timeframe of engagement, which may indicate they are more likely to return to their previously disenfranchised state.

"It's like [Republicans] think because I don't eat, sleep and breathe politics, I can't make an informed decision - it must be emotional. My guy lost so I don't want your guy to win. When really I just don't think your guy is the best guy for the job," Rebecca said. "I can easily see a decreased Tea Party voter turn out if Romney is the nominee. I know political pundits may find this hard to believe, but not everyone's life revolves around elections. Are they important? Yes. Should people vote? Absolutely. But LIFE happens."

Rebecca tabulates her schedule for tomorrow, Florida's election day - a typical Tuesday for her household. She flies solo nearly all day, and she's never voted early. Husband's breakfast/lunch packed. Get her two boys up. Breakfast/lunch packed for them. Thirty minutes to Kindermusik, all morning there. Home early afternoon, already late for their naps. Errands, an abbreviated playtime. Dinner, baths, bed. Just voting, she says, is nearly impossible with two youngsters during the day lest naptimes and eating schedules be disrupted, and there's no way she can even attempt to get it done with both kids after about 5 because of the after-work crowds. But she'll still do it.

"I will be voting this Tuesday. I will make it fit into my schedule. I feel like my vote matters right now," Rebecca said. "But can you see how I might not make it a priority if I feel like either my vote doesn't matter, or if I don't feel like the candidate I'm voting for will be much different then what we have? Can you see how life may take precedence over casting an uninspired vote? I can't be alone in this thought process, and if enough people feel this way (and I think they will) it will be catastrophic for Romney and really very bad down-ticket as well."

Will the Tea Party remain engaged in a party led by Romney, Boehner, and McConnell? Rebecca thinks we are about to find out.

"I feel like the people who live politics just don't understand those of us who don't. I am a self-identified political junkie. I am enthralled this cycle with how things change so quickly, and I am trying to stay very informed. But I have to be honest, my time is limited. My family, my boys are my everything. Being informed takes time away from them," she says, whether it's engaging online, organizing activist responses, pushing back their naps to attend a rally.

"If I don't feel like I'm making a difference, where is my incentive to take that time from them?" Rebecca asks.

How Republicans answer her, and the concerns of those like her, may decide their future as a party in 2012 and beyond.

Comments:



Joined
Dec '10
BKelley14

Cobalt Blue: Very interesting article - thanks for posting. Rebecca certainly lays out clear cases against Romney and for why the GOP keeps earning its Stupid Party appellation, but what's scary about the article is how the implications of a possible Obama victory are apparently not appreciated by some Tea Partiers.

Assuming he is nominated, I share the concerns of many that Romney would not govern as a small-government conservative, but I'm reminded of an episode from the 1980 campaign in which Reagan toured Harlem and was treated by the locals to repeated shouts of "What are you going to do for us?" He shot back, "I can't do anything for you if I'm not elected!" As much as some of us might not trust his instincts, we can be absolutely sure that Romney would be far more open to our views than would Obama in a second term. Romney won't be able to do anything for conservatives if he loses the election. Sitting on our hands and letting Obama win ... now that's a picture that should really scare us. · 8 minutes ago

ITA.

KC Mulville
Joined
Jan '11
KC Mulville

I came to Baltimore in 1987, when Baltimore didn't have a football team. Washington hoped that Baltimore would come to support the Redskins. Didn't happen. Why not? Because to Baltimore, the Redskins aren't - and will never be - their team. Close doesn't count.

The current Republican Party assumes that conservatives will think of the GOP as our team. But the party consistently nominates people who tell us that conservatism is great, but you can't get elected with it - which means that they really don't believe it in the first place. So instead of real conservatives, the party pushes "lite" candidates on us, who can only be trusted to abandon conservatism a few yards before the finish line.

  • The Democrat Party never offers us candidates who represent our views.
  • These days, the Republican Party doesn't, either.

Ravens don't support Redskins. Close doesn't count.

Fake John Galt
Joined
Jul '11
Fake John Galt

She has it exactly right.  I have voted in every election for 30+ years.  I have not missed a one.  But this year is different.  I can not vote for Obama, I will not vote for Romney, Gingrich is my only hope.  If the general election comes down between Obama and Romney then I stay home.  This is not a knee jerk reaction but a decision of great import and consequence to me.  It will be my formal recognition that the leadership of this country no longer holds my conservative values but is instead racing in the other direction with alarming speed and that the only difference between the parties is the disagreement if they should do so in third or fourth gear.


Joined
Jan '11
BThompson

Oooohh! Rebecca doesn't like Mitt. I'm shaking.

Freeven
Joined
Dec '10
Freeven

My wife is in education, so we have a lot of liberal acquaintances. I mostly avoid getting into political discussions with them since I don't see many of them as persuadable. I occasionally challenge some of the things they post on Facebook, however, in hopes of planting a few seeds that a lurker might consider. I've been doing less of that lately because I'm finding it harder to defend "my guys." I'm sickened when the best selling point is "He's not Obama." I've lost the will to defend Romney, or even Gingrich, who I still see as the better choice. (It's easier to defend Santorum, but he doesn't come up as much -- partly I think, because liberals find it harder to attack him.)

I have said for some time that I would vote for Romney over Obama, should it come to that. But if you believe, as I do, that we are doomed either way, it's hard to see the point. I'm very much surprised to find myself honestly considering sitting this election out, as I never thought it could get to that.

EJHill
Joined
May '10
EJHill

Tea partiers are becoming the Blacks of the Republican Party. Listen to Mike Murphy on the latest podcast who insists that the base needn't be listened to. The base shows up, insists Murphy, they always do.

There is this belief that just as Blacks faithfully stay on the Democrat Plantation, we will stay on the Republican one. They take us for granted in the full faith that we would never go third party because the alternative is just too repulsive.

Folks like Murphy and his BFF Mitt believe we have no breaking point. Are they correct?

tabula rasa
Joined
Jun '10
tabula rasa

I like the Tea Party, and feel an affinity for its goals.  On the other hand, I support Mitt because I believe he is the most electable and that he will govern as a conservative.

But, in the end, the question is getting to a majority in the general election, and of the four in the running, Romney always polls better against Obama than the others.  In fact, in some polls, Gingrich is dead last.  Subsumed within those poll numbers are members of the Tea Party, some of whom obviously prefer Romney.  For me, the question is not how involved the formal Tea Party leadership is in the election.  All things being equal, it would be great the more involved they are.  

But the ultimate question is who wins.  All of the empirical data I have seen says that Mitt will do best against Obama.  Santorum would have a chance. Yes, it's a long way to November, but betting the farm that Newt can change general public sentiment seems like putting everything on red at the roulette table.

Edited on January 30, 2012 at 7:30pm
Frozen Chosen
Joined
Aug '10
Frozen Chosen

  "I feel like this is so similar to our 2010 Senate race. Romney is the Crist candidate, loved by many and backed by the establishment. But we have no Rubio. Crist would have been an easy win. He was a liked governor. Without Rubio, he would have easily won the seat. Just because we don't have a Rubio in this race doesn't mean we need to settle for a Crist."

Does Rebecca realize that Mitt Romney was among the first GOP heavyweights to endorse Rubio as Rubio himself recently pointed out?  Does she realize that Mitt was out raising money and campaigning for Tea Party candidates across the country while Newt was endorsing liberals like DeDe Scozzafava against conservatives like Doug Hoffman?

People like Rebecca complain about the "Establishment" trying to ram a candidate down their throat but they refuse to educate themselves about what's really going on.

I thought the Tea Party was about making the federal government fiscally responsible.  No one in this race has a more impressive record of fiscal responsibility than Mitt Romney.

DocJay
Joined
Jul '11
DocJay

Where have all the cowboys gone?

Romney will be the nominee.  Romney will not win.  Neither would any of the others.  This action ensures a Rubio or Ryan presidency in 2016.  The GOP is very flawed and needs a colonic.  A Romney nomination and failure will help the housecleaning by energizing the TP to fix the GOP or even a third party.

jetstream
Joined
Dec '10
jetstream

EJHill: Tea partiers are becoming the Blacks of the Republican Party. Listen to Mike Murphy on the latest podcast who insists that the base needn't be listened to. The base shows up, insists Murphy, they always do.

There is this belief that just as Blacks faithfully stay on the Democrat Plantation, we will stay on the Republican one. They take us for granted in the full faith that we would never go third party because the alternative is just too repulsive.

Folks like Murphy and his BFF Mitt believe we have no breaking point. Are they correct? · 5 minutes ago

No! 

jhimmi
Joined
Oct '10
jhimmi

"There is no way he can win. And I don't want to have to defend him while he tries."

This is where I am. Romneycare and a lack of principles will doom Romney with the base.The out of touch Corporate Raider persona will doom Romney with the casual voter.

Every media story that praised OWS will be followed up with a story about how people like Romney are the REAL cause of all of our problems.

EJHill
Joined
May '10
EJHill

As a secondary thought: If the base stays home and Romney loses then the genius consultants like Murphy will find someone else to blame. Romney was a bad candidate.... The climate wasn't right... the money worked against it...

C. U. Douglas
Joined
Apr '11
C. U. Douglas

Despite Gingrich's many liabilities, he's been most outspoken in support of principles with which Tea Partiers agree.  We can debate as to whether Newt truly accepts these ideals or not, but he's been very effective expressing them.  Even if Romney sits closer in practice to these principles, he has demonstrated either an unwillingness or an inability to effectively express support for these.

flownover
Joined
Aug '10
flownover

This exhibits two things: the utter failure of the press as a source of reliable information about politics anymore.

And second, the stakes are higher than before driving people into activism for the sake of trying to help save our country.

The Tea Party and the citizen journalists and researchers are the results of a brazen attempt by this administration to formatively transform (they told us they were gonna try!) the nation. 

Will the GOP listen ?

Frozen Chosen
Joined
Aug '10
Frozen Chosen

BTW Ben, it is somewhat dishonest of you to use this picture of Crist and the Romneys from the 2008 primary when Mitt and every other GOP candidate was working to get Crist's endorsement in the FL primary.  Mitt endorsed Rubio in the 2010 senate race.

Southern Pessimist
Joined
May '11
Southern Pessimist

FWIW, my wife's sister and husband are very active in a large tea party group in South Florida and they are working hard for Santorum. I think Newt's ads have hurt him more than the negative ads by Romney but both have lost what little appeal they had.That said, they will vote for the Republican candidate in the fall.

Skarv
Joined
May '10
Skarv

Not scary for the leadership at all. I do not think the Republican establishment is afraid that the Tea Party movement will die. It will be back to business as usual for the political class of both parties. Most of them are more comfortable winning elections as democrat lights and since the competition is not that great it will happen often enough to guarantee life-time appointments for many of them. The consequences for the country are going to be dire but do they care. Some maybe..

Leebo
Joined
Jun '10
Leebo

I will root for Newt in Florida for the same reason I root for there to be 14 teams with 10 -1 records at the end of the NCAA  football season.  It is the best way to illustrate how flawed the system is for picking national champions. 

Just curious, has anyone decided, as I have, that unless someone else enters the race they will vote third party.  That is my plan if Gary Johnson runs as third party.   I would much rather vote for a Mitch Daniels, but Gary Johnson it is if things remain as they are.

Diego Sun Devil
Joined
Apr '11
Diego Sun Devil

How can she say Romney invented ObamaCare when Gingrich helped construct the individual mandate many years before?  I don't think Newt is poor by any means and he's spent his life in politics.  Isn't that a worse message - that you can get rich in politics?

Romney may not be conservative enough, but that's who we have, so get behind him and vote for the most conservative people you can find for Congress.  I believe that Romney, as president, will fall in line if the Congress is conservative enough.  I don't see him vetoing bills to repeal ObamaCare, eliminate Depts. of Education/Agriculture/Energy, etc.  I think he'll go as right as his support takes him.


Joined
Apr '11
nyconservative

I am about as conservative a voter as one can be across the board.That said,I also realize that you must win elections not just posture about what you want.I think sometimes people cut off their noses to spite their faces when it comes to purity.I adhere to Buckleys rule that I vote for the most conservative person who CAN win!


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