The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Walter Duranty of the New York Times (see my post below), believed Russians were essentially "Asiatic," a people who, lacking any concept of individuality, valued the communal and required autocratic government. This view enabled Duranty to rationalize his support for Stalin, whom he deemed a ruler in the authentically Russian manner.
Sadly enough, though, Duranty was on to something. Examine Russian history, and from the first emergence of the "Rus" a distinctive people to the election of Boris Yeltsin in 1991, more or less an even one thousand years later, and you will find scarcely a whit of democracy. Under constant pressure from the Mongols, who were governed by a long series of utterly brutal tribal autocrats or tyrants, and looking not to the West, but to the south, to Constantinople, where the emperor held ultimate power over both the secular and religious realms, Russia did indeed develop a tradition of concentrating total authority in tsars--while the people, through most of Russian history scattered in thousands of widely separated villages, played no role whatsoever in national life.
Take this tradition and then add seven decades of Communism during which every aspect of social life apart from the Party suffered systematic hostility. The perversion of the Orthodox church. The complete subjection of economic life to the state. The concerted, unceasing attack even on the most basic organizational unit of all, the family. What have you got? A shattered nation. Whereas in the revolutions in Eastern Europe the people themselves rose, overthrowing Communism, in the Soviet Union, something quite different happened.
The regime wasn't overthrown. It simply collapsed. The 1991 election of Boris Yeltsin, and, above all, the spontaneous protests in Moscow during the brief coup attempt--all suggested an eagerness for democracy. But the civil institutions--parties, the press, the sheer habit of political talk--none of those was yet in place. Yeltsin seemed the anamoly, Putin the reversion to the ancient Russian norm.
But now? The protests today arise from years of growing discontent during which a new generation has learned to use the new communications technology to learn the techniques of organization and political discussion, in effect inventing their own press--a truly free press--the operated over the Internet and on Twitter. In a population of more than 100 million, protests by tens of thousands might seem tiny. But again, consider Russian history. Over and over again, demonstrations in the cities have represented turning points, from the revolutions of 1905 and 1917 to the 1991 protests against the coup attempt.
Who knows? In the United States, Harry Jaffa argues, the election of 1800 represented a critical shift in political consciousness--the first time in history when one political party peacefully surrendered power to another. In Russia, perhaps, the demonstrations we are witnessing today represent just as basic a shift in consciousness--the first time in history when the Russian people rose up, not on behalf of one leader or faction or party, but on behalf of democracy itself.
After more than a thousand years, Russia may be joining the West.
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Oct '11
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Peter, this is the most realistically optimistic observation of human currents at the macro scale I've read in a long time. I hope the comment thread stays active for a while, I want to hear some counter argument while I consider this. Thanks for something worth thinking about.
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Thanks, Barfly, but in a little homage to Russian history, I'm seated here at my keyboard, deleting posts by everyone who disagrees with me. Just so's you know.
Edited on Dec 10, 2011 at 1:29pmJun '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
I am very tentatively optimistic about your thoughts, Peter. Having lived there for 5 years, I saw plenty of evidence to support you and plenty of evidence to refute it. Right now, I can tell you that my Facebook account is lit up like a Christmas tree from my Russian friends expressing outrage and actually taking the step to demonstrate in their cities. This trend is entirely different from any other moment in the last 9 years I've been involved with Russia.
In refutation, there is another, currently silent, bloc on my friend's list that would rather stick with Putin since the alternative is a potential rerun of the dreaded 90's. United Russia may have crossed a threshold that the average, lethargic Russian could not ignore this time. However, my conclusion is only that UR went just a little too far this time and if they scale back their brazenness, then people can go back to shrugging their shoulders and putting up with a lousy, but tolerable situation.
Jun '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
And to add:
Forecasting where Russia goes is a fool's game, but I'm going to guess that there will be some bumpiness for a while, but the status quo will regain its foothold after Putin becomes President again. I don't like it, they won't necessarily like it, but that's my guess for the week. It is entirely possible that this will become unsustainable and will catch up to them, but it will take a lot more before the whole thing unravels.
Sorry to be so cynical, but if you've had as many crushing conversations with Russians who prefer the status quo as I have, perhaps you'd be, too.
Meanwhile, here is a picture of the demonstration today in Nizhny Novgorod, where I lived. It's taken by one of my friends. About 1500 to 2000 showed up in the main square. In all fairness, this was a major deal, and it will be interesting if something does indeed become a more serious flare up.
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Dave Molinari: I am very tentatively optimistic about your thoughts, Peter. Having lived there for 5 years, I saw plenty of evidence to support you and plenty of evidence to refute it.
In refutation, there is another, currently silent, bloc on my friend's list that would rather stick with Putin since the alternative is a potential rerun of the dreaded 90's. United Russia may have crossed a threshold that the average, lethargic Russian could not ignore this time. However, my conclusion is only that UR went just a little too far this time and if they scale back their brazenness, then people can go back to shrugging their shoulders and putting up with a lousy, but tolerable situation. · Dec 10 at 12:30pm
No doubt there's a lot to the refutation. By the standards of Russian history, "lousy but tolerable" represents quite an improvement. Thanks for posting--and would you keep us informed about what your Russian friends are saying as this story develops?
Jun '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Peter Robinson
Dave Molinari: I am very tentatively optimistic about your thoughts, Peter. Having lived there for 5 years, I saw plenty of evidence to support you and plenty of evidence to refute it.
In refutation, there is another, currently silent, bloc on my friend's list that would rather stick with Putin since the alternative is a potential rerun of the dreaded 90's. United Russia may have crossed a threshold that the average, lethargic Russian could not ignore this time. However, my conclusion is only that UR went just a little too far this time and if they scale back their brazenness, then people can go back to shrugging their shoulders and putting up with a lousy, but tolerable situation. · Dec 10 at 12:30pm
No doubt there's a lot to the refutation. By the standards of Russian history, "lousy but tolerable" represents quite an improvement. Thanks for posting--and would you keep us informed about what your Russian friends are saying as this story develops? · Dec 10 at 12:39pm
Yes, I've been writing several today and can report anything I can gather. Stay tuned.
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Give us more pictures, too, if you can--and thanks again!
Jun '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
A couple more photos from Nizhny Novgorod plus a sample of what people are posting (translated and cleaned up). There are posts all over the place about the ballot count just like this:
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Apologies, everyone, we accidentally deleted this post. We're restoring the comments right now, they'll be back soon.
Jun '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Okay, I'm not crazy. My head was just spinning. Especially since I had so many brilliant comments on this one!
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
This news is amazing and exciting! I'm eager to see how it all plays out.
Oct '11
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Peter Robinson
Thanks, Barfly, but in a little homage to Russian history, I'm seated here at my keyboard, deleting posts by everyone who disagrees with me. Just so's you know. · Dec 10 at 12:00pm
Edited on Dec 10 at 01:29 pm
In other news, 3-legged Martians have landed in New Jersey. Please stay tuned...
Jul '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
It was certainly a turning point for a pure republic of its size and scope in the modern age, and an important milestone, but the party-ridden British Parliament changed hands without catastrophe on the odd occasion. And I don't recall the Netherlands coming unhinged at every change of power. Or, before that, Vienna.
One parallel to note for the obsessive declinists, in the closing 70 years of the Roman Republic, rent-a-mobs and the related violence became a common feature in Roman politics. Before his military career, young Julius Caesar, for one, made quite a name for himself as that sort of "community organizer". Now there is a thriving global rent-a-mob movement, if a bit incoherent and long on thuggish gangsterism.
As for Russia, every sign shows that the people are tired of Putin and, in some measure, corrupt thugocracies. Russia would make an awesome republic if the people can cut through the world-class cynicism to find their way.
Apr '11
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
People keep having faith that Russia will finally get over itself and become a constructive member (or at least a non-destructive member) of the European community. I'll believe Russia has reformed when it apologizes for all the crimes committed by their country throughout Eastern Europe and the World.
May '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
My first thought upon reading about your optimism, Peter, was: thank goodness Russia isn't a Muslim country! There's no well-organized Muslim Brotherhood ready to take over.
And then, I remembered what I've read about the demographic trends in Russia, which are dire. For example, I believe the armed forces of Russia are due to become majority Muslim in a very few years.
If the Russian Spring is truly happening, it's happening not a moment too soon.
Dec '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Democracy without the concept of liberty never goes well. We'll learn this eventually.
Dec '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
We'll see and I am hopeful. I studied Russian history and language at Florida, (the latter under what was called the Dartmouth model!), so natuaturaly, after posting me to Japanese ships NMFS eventually placed me aboard Soviet ships, back in the mid 80s. 1991 didn't surpirise me at all, as the people around me were almost visibly anti-Soviet, but reflection clarified that speaking Russian had nothing to do with being Soviet. Most of my more revolutionary friends were from the far east, or the far west, not really Russian.
At the time, for me, it was natural to confuse Soviets with Russians. The past 20 years has clarified that, a bit.
Feb '11
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
Much more complicated.
In Russian historiography there are those who insist that Russian civilization came initially from the Vikings, while on a quest for trade routes with Byzantium. The other branch in Russian historiography insists that Russian civilization came from the steps and forests of Russia.
Russian tsars were really cut off from their populations relying on a court that was far more powerful than courts in the west in no small part because of the size of the country. Russian tsars often did not speak Russian and it explains much about the Russian language itself. You cannot be or have in the present tense. They get around it with language constructs. Peter the Great spoke very bad Russian with poor grammar, but it didn't really matter because it was not spoken at court. Nicholas and Alexandra's love letters are in English, French, German, but not Russian.
The other thing to remember is that 95% or so of Russians were essentially slaves until 1861 and then had to pay their way out.
I'm out of words, but the other thing is Duma's origins. From the verb to think. Not like Parliament from speaking.
Feb '11
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
You mean like Putin and Katyn?
Nov '10
Re: The Christmas Revolution, Or, Russia Joins the West
I was both skeptical and hopeful along the lines of Peter Robinson's note above (see my earlier post on this subject on the Member's Feed). Then I read this article by Kim Zigfeld on the American Thinker. http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/12/the_futile_demonstrations_in_russia.html
I quote his last paragraph:
I'm afraid that the situation there doesn't sound so promising, if he is correct in his facts and analysis.
Edited on Dec 10, 2011 at 3:29pm