The Bin Laden Bump?
Sometimes, a little piece of good news from an unexpected source can change a situation around.
This morning in London, some interesting economic news. From the BBC:
The US dollar has rebounded, and stock markets have gained in Asia after US President Barack Obama said Osama Bin Laden was dead.
Oil prices slid more than 1%, while the price of gold and silver also dropped.
Analysts said Bin Laden's death was likely to lower security risks, and would help lift consumer sentiment in the US.
However, they warned that it would do little to ease the longer-term risks hanging over the US and global economy.
"There is some feel-good value and the market will like that," said Chip Hanlon of Delta Global Advisors.
But he added that: "It doesn't change much about the energy situation and doesn't change much about the ongoing battle with radical Islamists."
True, but sometimes all that's necessary is a little break in the gloom. I'm not predicting a sudden recovery, but for the portion of the world's economy that's governed by mood and outlook, this has to be a good sign.
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Comments :
Dec '10
Re: The Bin Laden Bump?
The interesting part comes when the world realizes that the death of Osama doesn't result in the end of the global Islamist terror war. It'll be a shock to so many people who think that 9/11 was the beginning and ending of the terror threat against the US and that Osama was essentially the lone bad guy responsible for all Muslim plots against the West.
Jul '10
Re: The Bin Laden Bump?
It's the destruction of a symbol: the indestructible rogue. How much better would it have been if we'd captured and tried him (not in New York)? Still, this is great news.
As for a bump, I'd expect the upturn in markets, but can't imagine it lasting long. It doesn't change the debt situation or the cost of doing business in the United States.
Numerous pats on the back for our military and intelligence community. Well done, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you.
Jul '10
Re: The Bin Laden Bump?
Ugh, no. Think of the protests, the security lockdowns, his lawyers smuggling his speeches out, whines about the conditions of his confinements. A circus to end all circuses.
This way is better. Being an enemy of America should cost you.
Dec '10
Re: The Bin Laden Bump?
While sober minds will likely know better, I do hope that the general population gets their hopes and expectations up over a small up-tick in the economy.
I hope this serves as a great example of how wonderful it is to accomplish something, and a stark contrast to all those moments consumed merely with talking about doing.
It's refreshing to be reminded that I'm still a lucky member of the country that gets the job done.
Jan '11
Re: The Bin Laden Bump?
It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. What I like about the markets is that the greed factor tends to trump people's politics (i.e. the rise in the price of gold while being told that we're in recovery and not to worry about quantitative easing. The market said 'BS"). In this case, what underlying factors have changed since last night? Hey - I'm elated this guy is dead but did oil fall 1% because professional traders think the supply is safer now? If the President would put a couple holes in Alaska and the Gulf similar to Bin Laden's head, we might see some genuine movement but I wouldn't bet on it.