The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
We know why many conservatives aren't too keen on the Boehner plan: it's puny, doesn't slash spending in any meaningful way, and will not address our long-term debt problem. But why do Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and Barack Obama have such a big problem with it?
First off, it's not because of the size of the spending cuts. The original Reid plan proposed $2.2 Trillion in cuts over 10 years (although note that $1.4 Trillion are "fake" cuts, in that they take into account wars that are winding down on their own) versus Boehner's $917 Billion over 10 years.
And it's not because of the objects of the cuts. For all the Democratic rhetoric over how the Boehner plan hurts seniors and the poorest among us, it turns out that the Reid plan cuts $1.7 Billion more from disability insurance, supplemental income payments, Medicare and Medicaid than does Boehner's plan (Reid's plan cuts $13.7 Billion to Boehner's $12 Billion in this category).
What it all comes down to is how Boehner's plan [shrewdly, in my opinion] exploits the fact that 2012 is an election year. Boehner's plan would guarantee that we get another debt ceiling showdown smack dab in the middle of 2012 election season, when Obama and Democratic Congressmen would like to be out campaigning and fundraising. Another ugly debt ceiling kerfuffle would certainly throw a wrench into those plans. That's why Reid's plan guarantees that the issue isn't revisited until after the 2012 election, when everyone is safe and sound in their new terms.
Ultimately, the Boehner plan's two-tranche approach to raising the debt ceiling is the biggest bargaining chip Republicans have. Ideally, the plan passes both chambers of Congress with this two-stage component in tact. Plan B: Compromise on a two-tranche debt ceiling increase with the McConnell plan mechanism in place for the second tranche. This wouldn't completely eliminate the topic from the national conversation surrounding the election, but it would allow Obama to raise the debt ceiling in 2012 all by himself, forcing him to take ownership of the United States' out-of-control debt.
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Dec '10
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
It strikes me as being somewhat distasteful to discuss the financial solvency of the nation in political terms, but the fact of the matter is that in order to do any real good concerning our debt and deficit we must. No good will come of four more years of Obama, so we must swallow the bitter pill of playing politics until we gather the strength needed to accomplish what must be done. As Thomas Sowell pointed out, we must retreat until the time is right to attack.
Feb '11
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
Another big reason the Democrats oppose and are so vehement in proclaiming its DOA status: NIH. Not Invented Here. It's Boehner's bill, the Republicans bill. And the Dems can't be seen to accept it in whole. In the end, Reid & Co will make a few tweaks around the edges, claim he and his Democrat colleagues saved us from a retreat to the Dark Ages, and pass the "compromise" bill.
Oct '10
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
“Plan B: Compromise on a two-tranche debt ceiling increase with the McConnell plan mechanism in place for the second tranche. This wouldn't completely eliminate the topic from the national conversation surrounding the election, but it would allow Obama to raise the debt ceiling in 2012 all by himself, forcing him to take ownership of the United States' out-of-control debt.”
If this happens, I think the GOP will lose huge chunks of the Tea Party. And it ‘would’ completely eliminate the topic from the election season. There’s no drama if Obama can increase the ceiling all on his own. Goodness, after months of this “experts” are still arguing over whether it even matters. How’s the issue going to generate any interest when the stark contrast drama is drained away? No drama, no story . . . just policy wonk yammering. The conversation moves on to something else. And Obama’s weakest link passes from view . . . courtesy, yet again, of the politically overmatched, doddering fools of the GOP.
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
Congress could, and would, vote to block Obama's action and make a fuss about how his addiction to spending, etc etc. Obama would of course veto the blocking measure, but not without making at least a half dozen public appearances in which he tries to justify his actions, but in actuality just reminds the American people what a petulant child he is.
Am I just engaging in wishful thinking?
Dec '10
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
Hmmm. Big electrical storm and my comment never made it through. Just a process comment:
Boehner had the plan re-drafted, as the original was drafted using the numbers in ongoing negotiations, the CBO budget estimates from January 2011. Those numbers were revised in May, so CBO scored the original plan against the May numbers. The original draft called for a second "tranche" in April or May, 2012. We have spent so much since January that the new version calls for the second tranche in November of 2011, so the WH and the media are calling this Boehner's Grinch Plan, for ruining the Christmas holidays.
Oct '10
Re: The Biggest Reason Democrats Oppose Boehner's Plan
Diane Ellis: Am I engaging in wishful thinking?
I fear you are.
You assume Dem-controlled Senate votes against debt increase, necessitating Obama veto, etc. The presumption is enough Senate Dems will want an anti-debt vote on the record. I’m not a nose counter on the Hill, but I think there’s reason to be skeptical. This will come down to a calculation by these Senate Dems that electorally significant numbers of constituents are willing to vote for them BUT for this one issue of showing sufficient rectitude regarding fiscal arcana like a “debt ceiling.” Is it likely that anyone who cares enough about debt ceilings to make it his tipping point issue, also is unobservant enough to miss what is going on here? Likely that he will be fooled by pure political theater that is the McConnell plan? I suspect that if you care enough about debt limits to make your vote turn on it, you also ‘get it’ when you are being played. As for remainder of the scenario you lay out, I think anyone inclined to change their vote based on a view of Obama as a “petulant child” isn’t waiting for further evidence.