The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
Last week, in a brief squib on Ricochet, Heather Higgins drew our attention to a piece written for The Daily Caller in which she described the situation now faced by the Republicans in Wisconsin. As she put it, “the recent fight” in that state over collective bargaining rights “has cost Republicans support, strengthened unions, polarized the issue, and swung critical independents, who were essential to the Republicans’ 2010 electoral victory, toward sympathizing with the unions.”
Indeed, in Wisconsin, Republicans now face a state Supreme Court election in less than two weeks as well as eight legislative recall elections this spring and summer. Defeat would turn over control of both entities to government union supporters. As it stands now, Republicans could not only lose, but lose badly. And if they lose, the political repercussions for other states (like Ohio) that are also taking on government unions are enormous.
Moreover, she added, the polling done by her Independent Women’s Forum had produced ominous results.
Gov. Walker is now viewed unfavorably by a 53% majority, and with vehemence: only 3% say “somewhat” unfavorable while 50% say “very.” In contrast, the “Gang of 14,” the 14 Democratic state senators who fled to Illinois, were viewed favorably by a majority of respondents, 51% to 47%, even though a majority thought it was wrong of them to run away. The real winner? Government employee unions in Wisconsin, scoring 55% favorable and only 40% unfavorable.
The numbers about recalling legislators should also worry Republicans. Asked if they support or oppose recalling the Gang of 14 Democratic state senators, 60% overall oppose recalling them, with 38% supporting recall. But when it comes to recalling the Republican state senators who remained in Wisconsin, a much more tepid 52% oppose their recall, while 43% support it.
Turnout is key in any election, but especially in special elections. And unions excel at turnout: While union members constitute only 14% of Wisconsin’s population, in recent elections union households have cast between 26% and 30% of the votes.
Union households support recalling Republicans over Democrats by a 2:1 margin. Additionally, self-described independents now side with the unions and protestors over the governor 54% to 43%, and are overall favorably disposed (62%) to Wisconsin’s government employee unions. And if it came to a recall for Scott Walker, independents favor it 51% to 47%, the near inverse of the population as a whole, who oppose, but only barely, his recall, 50%-49%.
Her explanation is that the Republicans have not in an effective manner made their case, and she suggests that they try a “new playbook.”
Higgins may well be right. Earlier in March, I ran a little conference in Hermosa Beach, California. One of the participants hailed from Milwaukee. When I asked him about events in Wisconsin, what he told me gibed rather well with her assessment.
Unmentioned in her article, however, and uncited in the comments on her Ricochet post was a piece on the same subject posted on The Weekly Standard website on 5 March by Spencer Abraham, former Senator from Michigan. In his essay, Abraham warned against panic. By that time, it was already evident that Scott Walker and the Republicans in Wisconsin had lost ground in the polls, and some were suggesting that the Republicans cave. In his view, the drop in the polls was to be expected. That is what happens when an administration faced by nothing but hard choices resolutely does what needs doing. Moreover, it goes without saying that those in possession of an ox about to be gored will resist bitterly. “For much of America,” he wrote,
the recent events in Wisconsin appear unique. Massive protests in Madison, people sleeping in the capitol building, a governor absorbing vitriolic attacks and so on are hardly the usual political fare. But for those of us from Michigan, the events in Wisconsin prompt vivid memories of the antics that occurred in our state 20 years ago. Back then Michigan was in a recession and newly elected Republican governor John Engler was facing a poor economy, long unemployment lines, and tons of red ink. Rather than hope for miracles or buy into the notion he could tax his way to fiscal and economic success, Engler took on the big government forces and started cutting taxes and spending.
As is the case in Wisconsin, the vested interests went nuts. Protest marches on Lansing were followed by huge demonstrations on the state capitol lawn. Soon Jesse Jackson arrived on the scene to lead the demonstrators and decry the “draconian” cuts that would most certainly lead to death and ruin. The more zealous protesters pitched tents on the capitol lawn and moved in. They named their impromptu community Englerville and asserted that the governor’s policies had made them homeless (although the evidence suggested that the inhabitants of the makeshift community were either already homeless, paid protesters, or volunteers who returned to their own homes after a few nights helping the cause). Soon nearly every piece of bad news in the state was being portrayed as stemming from Engler’s reckless changes. I particularly recall a news item in which the friends of a suicide victim contended that the deceased had been especially upset by the Engler budget cuts and that this might have prompted his unexpected self-inflicted demise.
As in Wisconsin, these events prompted an initial period of political backlash. Engler’s approval ratings fell far below Walker’s (into the 20s as I recall), and the experts rated his chances for re-election as slim to none.
Engler and Michigan Republican legislators were faced with the same choice that Scott Walker and his allies face today. Cave in to the pressure and seek accommodation or stick to their guns and make the changes necessary to put their state on the right path. They chose the latter course and accomplished their mission. Soon Michigan was out of budget danger. Later, as the state’s economy improved, Michigan not only moved into the black but was able to build a large surplus. That the state’s resurgence was not merely a reflection of a national trend could be seen in the numbers, which indicated that for the first time in years Michigan’s unemployment rate was “below” the national average. Adding further evidence was the announcement that Michigan was voted the number one destination for new business relocations due in large part to the 20 plus tax cuts Engler and his team had enacted.
Engler, as Abraham points out, was not only re-elected when his first term ran out; he won 60% of the vote. In Wisconsin, he adds, “When voters realize that the “sky didn’t fall” and that their schools and public services do not suffer any diminution in quality, their concern will turn to respect for politicians who stood their ground and made the tough decisions, as opposed to those who ran away from their duties. As Wisconsin’s economy rebounds and businesses from high-tax Illinois relocate to low-tax Wisconsin, the wisdom of Walker’s approach will become increasingly clear. Ultimately, Walker and those who stand with him will enjoy the same popular success as Engler and his Michigan cohorts. And Wisconsin will be the ultimate winner as its economy and future become strong and dynamic.
Heather Higgins is, of course, right that Scott Walker and his allies have a fight on their hands, and it is incumbent on them to make their argument in as effective a manner as is possible. Moreover, they may well suffer political casualties in the course of the next few months. But if the Republicans make their case and hold their ground, the odds are that most of those at risk will survive the recall effort, and the law they passed will soon enough seem old hat.
In the meantime, the people in Wisconsin who work for the government just got a salary increase. The state of Wisconsin is no longer subtracting union dues from their paychecks. Of course, as the article linked also notes, they are now paying 12.6% of the cost of their healthcare insurance and half of the cost of their pensions (which is to say, roughly 5.8% of what they make). If the experience of their colleagues in Indiana is any indication, most of these Cheeseheads will come to be glad they no longer have to pay union dues – for, in the fiscal environment now faced by the state of Wisconsin, a reduction in the pension and healthcare contributions required of them is not in the cards.
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May '10
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
Being someone from WI I am so glad we finally have legislators willing to the right thing and not doing what's best to get them re-elected. The Governor is taking a big hit right now so much so because the media is focused on the opposition vs his supporters, typical. In the end there will be enough people from the private sector that will appreciate what the Republicans r doing and re-elect him. We had Doyle before who gave and gave to the unions esp the Teachers, robbed from q one else and now that is showing up big time esp when you drive down our crumbling roads. We are seeing companies from IL moving here now. In the end the Republicans will emerge victorius because things will turn around plus public employees will eventually come to appreciate that they don't have to pay union dues if they don't want to anymore. Also I think that people here will get sick of the unions thugishness and public oppionion will turn on them.
Oct '10
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
I reacted similarly when I read Ms. Higgins' article last week. Moreover, I recall that President Reagan suffered a similar decline in fortunes in the short-term aftermath of the implementation of his economic policies. Should the Republicans choose to base their agenda merely upon the latest polling data, they will be doomed to a cycle of failure and frustration and America will continue to suffer long-term damage from the ruinous fiscal policies of the Democrats. To paraphrase Admiral Farragut, damn the polls, full speed ahead!
Edited on Mar 29, 2011 at 4:16pmMay '10
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
Yes, Damn the polls. Anyone who is surprised at a short term negative reaction to cutting budgets and jobs, and taking on unions shouldn't attempt to do so. But, it has to be done smartly and dramatically enough to realize some results prior to election time!
Edited on Mar 29, 2011 at 2:27pmMay '10
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
This is why the founders created us as a republic, and mandated that the states have republican governments.
I don't think anyone should be recalled.
Jan '11
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
The only thing missing from the report was the imperative to fight, and not to simply hold your ground.
A lot of what I read in the comments as well as in Spence Abrahams' recollection smacks of the conviction that because we have the better arguments, we'll win in the end. This is faith-based complacency, and unworthy for the virtuous citizens of a republic.
It's not enough to do the right thing and wait for the inevitable positive effects to justify your actions. You have to keep doing the right things and pounding the proponents of the wrong policies into a puddle.
Engler did wonders for Michigan, but Detroit continued to decline.
Tommy Thompson did great things in Wisconsin, but the University at Lansing remained an ideological cesspool and Milwaukee descended into being one of the 10 most impoverished cities in America a few years later.
I said it at the beginning of the Battle of Wisconsin and I say it again now. Governor Walker and the Fitzgerald brothers should declare victory and immediately begin the next offensive - Voter ID.
Once you've got the bastards running, keep 'em running.
That';s how you really win.
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
Freesmith, you are certainly right about Voter ID.
Dec '10
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
We know we have the correct philosophy to espouse real solutions to our economic and even foreign policy woes, yet our case continues to flounder in the face of media bias and inarticulate representation. We have to reestablish moral authority with continued honesty and more virtuous officials and moral outrage to the point of righteous indignation when appropose.
e.g. God bless Sarah Palin. She is a great role model in so many ways and to allow her to be trashed or on our side, to participate in her destruction is WRONG. She doesn't have to be our nominee but she does not deserve our scorn.
Re: The Battle of Wisconsin, Stage Two
Grimaud: We know we have the correct philosophy to espouse real solutions to our economic and even foreign policy woes, yet our case continues to flounder in the face of media bias and inarticulate representation. We have to reestablish moral authority with continued honesty and more virtuous officials and moral outrage to the point of righteous indignation when appropose.
e.g. God bless Sarah Palin. She is a great role model in so many ways and to allow her to be trashed or on our side, to participate in her destruction is WRONG. She doesn't have to be our nominee but she does not deserve our scorn. · Mar 29 at 7:10pm
I agree.