Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
The Assad regime has sharply ratcheted up its crackdown on Syrian civilians, and reports are emerging that Iranians and Hezbollah members are assisting them. That assistance, according to several reports including that of a Syrian defector interviewed on camera, entails shooting Syrian soldiers in the back who refuse to fire on protesters.
Assad has dispatched tanks to subdue Jisr al-Shughour, the northern town in which more than 100 Syrian soldiers are reported to have been killed last week. The regime is blaming protesters for the soldiers' deaths and is using the incident as justification for what sounds, from the sketchy reports leaking out of the town (all press are banned), like an exceptionally gruesome and vicious assault. As of this writing, the town -- pop. 41,000 -- is reported to be almost completely empty. The attack on Jisr al-Shughour appears to be part of a wider escalation by the regime: on Friday, Assad employed air power against protesters for the first time when he sent helicopter gunships to disperse crowds in Maarat al-Numaan.
Eyewitness testimony is being provided by refugees who fled into neighboring Turkey. The BBC, using this testimony, reported yesterday that Syrian soldiers are killing citizens, setting wheat fields on fire, and ripping out olive trees. One soldier who fled after participating in the assault on the town of Homs said, "When we entered the houses, we opened fire on everyone, the young, the old... Women were raped in front of their husbands and children." Another soldier who was in Homs said, "I realized that the regime is prepared to massacre everyone."
More than 4,000 refugees have crossed the Turkish border so far, with thousands more still fleeing towards it. Turkey has set up a field hospital to attend to the refugees, but is apprehensive that they will push further into the country and is taking steps to prevent them from making contact with relatives in Turkey.
Assad, meanwhile, is taking increasing international heat. Britain, France, Germany and Portugal are calling for the UN Security Council to condemn him. US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said, "I would say the slaughter of innocent lives in Syria should be a problem and a concern for everybody...Whether Assad still has the legitimacy to govern his own country, I think is a question everyone needs to consider." Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- who recently referred to Assad as a "good friend" -- is now using words like "atrocities," "savagery," and "barbaric" about Assad's crackdown. Referring to the activities of the Syrian 4th Armored Division, which is under the command of Bashar's brother Maher Assad, Erdogan said, "Sadly, they don't behave like humans." With reference to the prospect of UN condemnation of the Assad regime, he said, "We can't [support] Syria amidst all this...We still have relatives [in Syria]."
That's the general picture. So -- will Assad bend to international pressure? Will he ease up on his people to secure his position?
No and no.
As Haaretz notes, Assad has the backing at the UN of Russia and China, so the disapprobation of the likes of Ban-ki Moon aren't losing him any sleep. And if he loses Turkey as an ally, what of it? He's still got Iran, and again, Russia's in his corner. A Libya-esque military intervention is exceedingly unlikely in view of Syria's strategic alliances, and Assad couldn't care less about non-military censure. Syria has weathered plenty of international isolation before now.
What about mass defections from the army, or mass refusals to take part in the crackdown? It's doubtful that either was ever very likely, and they're near impossibilities now that Iran and Hezbollah are taking care of clean-up. The opposition reports that defections from the army are in the hundreds, not thousands, suggesting nary a dent in the stability of Assad's military machine. And the opposition is its own problem. Haaretz reports that they're splintered over issues like "whether to call for international military intervention, how to build the post-Assad regime, how to divide the political pie among Sunni and Shi'ite, Christian and Alawi; between urban and rural, between tribal heads and urban elites." Any such dissension works in Assad's favor.
There's no standing down now. If he gives in, he dies. Assad's in it for as long as it takes to crush the opposition.
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Mar '11
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Bob Gates statement is sobering. Especially so in light of his fairly public disagreement with the stated administration policy on Libya. If we answer his question in the negative, what, exactly, does that mean?
Jun '11
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
The dictatorship of a tyrant, the dictatorship of Sharia.
What other political models could ever work among these people?
Apr '11
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Does this represent a serious threat to Israel? After the attempted border crossings last week, how seriously do you take the possibility that the regime will try to promote internal solidarity by attacking the 'Zionist Entity'?
May '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
It sounds like Turkey is going to receive a large influx of anti-Semites. Future voters?
Jun '11
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Yes. It almost seems scripted.
Orwell's "Emmanuel Goldstein" principle will kick in. Unite the state by conjuring a common enemy.
May '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Who knew dentistry was so dangerous? Slughorn was right.
I came across an astounding statement yesterday in a Foreign Policy article, regarding the citizenry arming themselves with smuggled weapons. "The turn to violence, while unadvisable..."
What? I'm glad that some Syrians aren't heeding the advice of columnists for Foreign Policy. Violence would seem highly advisable when the government starts shooting at you. No wonder dictatorships have no 2nd amendment.
Aug '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Judith Levy
The Assad regime has sharply ratcheted up its crackdown on Syrian civilians, and reports are emerging that Iranians and Hezbollah members are assisting them. That assistance, according to several reports including that of a Syrian defector interviewed on camera, entails shooting Syrian soldiers in the back who refuse to fire on protesters...
Eyewitness testimony is being provided by refugees who fled the town into neighboring Turkey. The BBC, using this testimony, reported yesterday that Syrian soldiers are killing citizens, setting wheat fields on fire, and ripping out olive trees. One soldier who fled after participating in the assault on the town of Homs said, "When we entered the houses, we opened fire on everyone, the young, the old... Women were raped in front of their husbands and children." Another soldier who was in Homs said, "I realized that the regime is prepared to massacre everyone."
I can't help tears of frustration at reading news like this. What cruelty. What barbarism. I pray as many as possible flee to safety -- and that they don't take this sickness with them.
And to think that there are deluded schmucks out there who sincerely believe Israel is the wicked state.
Dec '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
They are boxed in. Their best strategy would have been to have Hezbollah launch a rocket strike on Israel to cause a Lebanon border war and thus take pressure off Assad without direct confrontation with the IDF. However, Iran and Hezbollah closed off that avenue with their 2006 kidnapping/murder of IDF soldiers, leading to a war that ended with a more robust mandate for the (largely useless) UN "peacekeeping" force. Launching an attack now would put Hezbollah clearly in the wrong with the UN.
Assad can't afford an actual war with Israel now, because it's unclear whether many regular Army soldiers would fight to defend him. The Syrians opposed to his regime would likely assume that Israel would come in, take Assad out, and then leave the Syrians to sort out their own problems.
That leaves his border provocation strategy on Nakba and Naksa Days - but even his own people see through that.
Dec '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
And to think that there are deluded schmucks out there who sincerely believe Israel is the wicked state.
Even the Arab world is beginning to see that Israel is not the Arab people's worst enemy, A Gulf News opinion column:
An Israeli journalist remarked cynically about two decades ago that the Arab media can easily see a dust particle in the eyes of Israel, and can hardly see a log in the eyes of Arab regimes. In other words, the journalist wanted to expose Arab media hypocrisy, where it ignores the massacres committed by some Arab rulers.
Funnily enough, comparing the number of Arab people killed during the wars between Israel and Arab countries with the number of Arabs killed locally, one will notice that Arab dictatorships have killed more people.
I wonder what the aforementioned Israeli journalist would say after seeing what some Arab despots are doing to protesters. I am sure he might put pressure on the Israeli authorities to be harsher with the Palestinian and Lebanese in the future. Sadly enough, some Arab armies and security services have proved to be much more brutal than the Israeli army.
Aug '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Thanks for the update, Judith.
Sad commentary on what the American news cycle has done to me: my first thought upon seeing the photograph included in your report was, "Wow, I had no idea the Syrians would be so mad at Anthony Weiner." --I hope there's at least a little resemblance; elsewise I'm going mad.
May '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
If only we had an actual President, leading an actual Administration that was aiding the opposition in Syria with covert communications assistance: stealth cell phone, internet and other things...
Aug '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Stuart Creque
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
And to think that there are deluded schmucks out there who sincerely believe Israel is the wicked state.
Even the Arab world is beginning to see that Israel is not the Arab people's worst enemy...
Thanks for the encouraging news, Stuart.
I hope that writer isn't alone in his realizations -- and that Israel's neighbors aren't so sucked in to the grievance mentality that such realizations (whenever they do occur) fail to change their hearts.
Dec '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
Thanks for the encouraging news, Stuart.
I hope that writer isn't alone in his realizations -- and that Israel's neighbors aren't so sucked in to the grievance mentality that such realizations (whenever they do occur) fail to change their hearts. · Jun 12 at 2:36pm
That's a worthy prayer.
Jun '10
Re: Syria: What's Happening, and What to Expect
That Bashar is really a reformer. Instead of killing tens of thousands, he's trying hard (but won't guarantee) to keep it under 10,000.
Like father, like son.