Surprise Season?
With his poll numbers dropping, Independents deserting and even many supporters in near-revolt mode, some political observers believe the President and his people are cooking up some big October Surprise. So-called October Surprises—those dramatic late-in-the game developments—have become a staple of American politics from Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972 (Henry Kissinger’s “peace is at hand”) to Bush vs. Clinton in 1992 (the indictment of Caspar Weinberger in the Iran-Contra affair) to Bush vs. Gore in 2000 (W’s DUI revelation). Similar drama has unfolded in off-year elections as well as presidents try to either gain or hold on to their party’s Congressional power.
There are a few real possibilities for high-stakes initiatives this year, from a gargantuan stimulus package that could energize recipients of the government’s largesse, to a military strike on Iran. However, there are also great risks inherent in each of those options; risks that could move losses from severe to catastrophic. So what’s a president to do?
My own hunch is there will be no October Surprise this year. I’m not even sure the President and his advisors view the loss of the House as such a terrible thing. After all, it hasn’t been exactly a love fest between the White House and the Congress, and, on more than one occasion, administration officials have made it clear that winning the battles is more important to them than saving the troops. They may also look at divided government—and the shared blame for failures—as providing Obama’s best chance for re-election in 2012.
It’s that latter consideration that will drive everything from here forward, including whether they have any surprises up their sleeves.
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Jun '10
Re: Surprise Season?
I doubt there's anything planned, anything that would be effective enough to help him, but Obama could certainly benefit from situations beyond his control. If, for example, the North Koreans torpedoed and sunk an American ship, then Obama would have to act, and the nation would dutifully fall in behind the President. If he handled that crisis skillfully, his political stock would go up.
May '10
Re: Surprise Season?
James Pethokoukis of Reuters (and US News) wrote of rumors that the Administration was about to initiate a "Main Street Bailout" by forgiving Fannie and Freddie mortgages.
Treasury denies...
May '10
Re: Surprise Season?
An attack on Iran would be politically unhelpful when you consider how many Democrats continue to vote against supporting "the good war" in Afghanistan. Independents who might think bombing Iran's nuclear facilities is our least-bad option would be outweighed by all the hippies too busy picketing or crying to vote. That's not to mention Obama's distaste for doing right through might, which probably renders a preemptive strike impossible.
The only manufactured surprise that could help the Democrats in November would be some nod towards restraint. Instead, looks like we'll get even more bailouts, as Pelosi and Reid circle their lonely remaining wagons: unions and public employees. Pat, I think you're right that a drubbing this year could benefit Obama in 2012.
EJHill, I think we will see a "Main Street Bailout," and it will energize opponents at least as much as it energizes allies. Even Americans who could benefit from such a measure should realize by now that it's all play money as far as the left is concerned, and ultimately someone will have to foot the bill.
May '10
Re: Surprise Season?
I don't understand this meme. What has the President done that shows that he is able or willing to change course to get more in line with the American people?
If he tries to say, "The GOP-led Congress is preventing me from accomplishing my agenda," doesn't the electorate turn around and say, "Duh! That's exactly why we sent them there, you idiot!"?
Aug '10
Re: Surprise Season?
I'm expecting Obama to ask for an extension of the Bush tax cuts, probably with an exception carved out for high income folks...
May '10
Re: Surprise Season?
EJHill
I don't understand this meme. What has the President done that shows that he is able or willing to change course to get more in line with the American people?
Absolutely nothing - the only way he can connect with more than a slim percentage of Americans is through scripted speeches. Unfortunately we have short attention spans, and if this is a big "throw the bums out" year Obama will have some success in 2012 whining that his policies weren't really given a chance, and oh bother look at how this economy is still bad because the Party of No messed up his stimuli.
Plus, think of all the cuts the GOP will make in 2011 if they have any backbones. Talking about cutting spending is a much easier sell than actually cutting it.
Jul '10
Re: Surprise Season?
I don't think there's a thing that can be done at this point; I'm not sure BO's got the cojones for a strike at Iran, which could be a game changer only at the margin.
More importantly, if the GOP does capture either or both Houses (and I'm one of those that think they'll get both and by wider margins than expected), what do they do? If they're going to be 90% Democrats instead of real GOPers, more bad stuff will continu
Jul '10
Re: Surprise Season?
I don't think there's a thing that can be done at this point; I'm not sure BO's got the cojones for a strike at Iran, which could be a game changer only at the margin.
More importantly, if the GOP does capture either or both Houses (and I'm one of those that think they'll get both and by wider margins than expected), what do they do? If they're going to be 90% Democrats instead of real GOPers, more bad stuff will continue. If they embrace tea party principals and begin to scale the size of the Fed back, or at least propose to do so, then good on them.
Jul '10
Re: Surprise Season?
Republicans have to squeeze out the get-along to go-along elements of its party like the Maine Sisters and Lindsey Graham before course correction is achieved. I think they also must never talk to the oddly-named MSM. Let them say so-and-so "refused comment" or "did not return phone calls." People know enough now about the corruption of modern journalism that they will understand why.
Re: Surprise Season?
EJHill
I don't understand this meme. What has the President done that shows that he is able or willing to change course to get more in line with the American people?
If he tries to say, "The GOP-led Congress is preventing me from accomplishing my agenda," doesn't the electorate turn around and say, "Duh! That's exactly why we sent them there, you idiot!"? · Aug 7 at 12:11pm
So why not keep his powder dry until 2012? The real surprise -- irrelevant to 2010 -- is whatever's going to become of Hillary.
May '10
Re: Surprise Season?
An attack on Iran would be politically unhelpful when you consider how many Democrats continue to vote against supporting "the good war" in Afghanistan.
Perhaps, but would it keep some margin of independent voters away from pulling the lever for Republicans? Me: not sure.
Aug '10
Re: Surprise Season?
You're spot on, Pat: "...They may also look at divided government—and the shared blame for failures—as providing Obama’s best chance for re-election in 2012."
They may think they can pull a Clinton, capitalizing on a Republican victory the way Bill & Hill did in '96. The cynicism and perfidy of this White House lot must not be underestimated. Nor can their ineptitude... or is it ineptitude?
A case can be made that the string of failures, miscalculations, and face-plants are deliberate. A clear pattern of 1) Reckless endangerment 2) Implied malice, and 3) Depraved indifference emerges, the more one studies this tragic era.