Straws in the Wind
If you doubt my contention that Mitt Romney is going to win a landslide and that his choice of Paul Ryan and his decision to seek a mandate for enacting Ryan's program will nationalize the election and give our dynamic duo coattails of the sort that Reagan had in 1980, ponder the implications of my post from last night Then and Now; read Niall Ferguson's attack on Obama in Newsweek; take a look at Glenn Thrush's piece on Politico, which is entitled Obama Campaign Roiled by Conflict; and consider this column from The Washington Post, which is entitled Why Ryan Might be Right about Medicare.
The press is beginning to distance itself from our tinpot Messiah. The quarrels that are wreaking havoc on his campaign reflect the fact that his strategy is failing abysmally. And Ryan and Romney are beginning to be treated in the mainstream press as serious men with a plan for meeting the present crisis.
There is a simple rule in politics. You cannot beat someone with no one; and, because he lacks an agenda for a second term and a plan for confronting our fiscal and our economic crisis, The One is rapidly becoming no one.
The old road is rapidly aging . . .
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Re: Straws in the Wind
Professor, I'd like to agree with you. And I get the sense you may be exactly right. But I offer a caution that it is still very possible to lose this thing. We have to fight like the underdog, and take nothing for granted, relentlessly challenging the premise of the opposition and their supporters in the press. Optimism is a powerful thing. Cockiness can be debilitating.
Re: Straws in the Wind
Professor, I wish I could partake in your daring optimism, but electoral geography prevents me from doing so. All of this national "thematic" politics is very important to political junkies like us Ricochetti, but is not very important, I think, to anyone else. And regardless of how weak Obama seems on the level of nationwide thematics, I'm afraid it seems unlikely that the President will lose the necessary permutation of Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
I sincerely hope that you are right and I am wrong. But I can't take the carnivorous political media's word for it that Obama is faltering. "Dewey defeats Truman" and all that.
Edited on August 20, 2012 at 4:56pmJun '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
Makes me hungry for a chicken sandwich.
Oct '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
"tinpot Messiah"... Thanks for that moniker. The "one" certainly fits that image.
Sadly, I agree more with Dave and Andrew above. Things are certainly going better for Romney than I expected, and worse for Obama, but not nearly so much as needed. OTOH, we really won't know until Nov 7.
Apr '11
Re: Straws in the Wind
The phrase in order is 'cautious optimism.' I sure hope come November, it turns out like Dr. Rahe has prognosticated, but I remain more cautious than optimistic.
It's a pleasant thought right now, since none of those "bells" the good doctor has cited above can be unrung, even in the wake of Akin's comments. The question is, which is louder? Them, or the manufactured brouhaha over Akin?
Oct '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
Reading 1-5, above, now I understand what the Iron Lady meant about "going wobbly."
Jun '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
We have two potentially decisive hands yet to play in this poker game. The nominating conventions are up next. The norm is to see a brief bounce in the polls for both nominees following the event. The thing to look for here is the amount of energy on display by the partisan participants. A flat convention by either one could prove a disaster, but I think that rather unlikely for the Republican side given the energy provided by the Tea Party.
Then we get the debates. Mitt had to run the gauntlet of numerous debates within the party and that will work to his advantage. But performance will be key. If Obama comes off as petulant or aloof, then he's done. The media will turn on him en masse and this thing could be over well before election day.
Jun '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
The one thing we can expect from the MSM is lack of principle. I'm not sure I go as far as Professor Rahe, but there is strong evidence that some in the MSM are distancing themselves from Obama.
Here's the problem. Instead of dumping him because his policies are so manifestly bone-headed and harmful, the MSM begins to abandon him only when he appears to be weak.
Perhaps they need a slogan. Here's my suggestion: "The MSM: Even When We're Right, We Do It For the Wrong Reason."
That said, if they want to dump on him, I'm all for it. But let's not take this as a sign of either competence or principle.
Edited on August 20, 2012 at 5:37pmMar '11
Re: Straws in the Wind
And, Mr Long finds Mr Obama weird (what took so long?).
I agree that it is time for cautious optimism. Mr Obama will be a master at hiding his petulance and aloofness in the debates, but his intense dislike for Mr Romney - the personification of all that Marx hated about Capitalists - may well cause the smiley mask to slip for a few seconds.
It will be fascinating to watch it all unravel.
Edited on August 20, 2012 at 5:40pmMay '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
Two things...
1) who is going to the Republican Convention: every R running who can get there; how many D candidates are skipping their convention? It tells a lot.
2) As posted on the member feed this morning, from the Daily Caller: Obama could lose Illinois
While, short of a real tsunami, he probably will hold the state, if Illinois is in trouble, I'm less worried about the "swing states." I live in Illinois; I hear the grumbles and see the crappy economy. I'm really not surprised.
Fight like we are behind...and get ready to govern boldly.
Jun '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
May '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
I just saw this quote in the Glenn Thrush Politico piece:
Wow. Talk about projection. (bold phrasing by me)
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html#ixzz246NAPbIx
Edited to add: When you read this article, it really starts to sound like those Downfall satire videos. Wow, Clinton was right; he's an amateur.
Edited on August 20, 2012 at 5:54pmDec '11
Re: Straws in the Wind
I find myself nodding my head in vigorous agreement after reading Dr. Rahe's post, and all of the thoughtful comments. Desperate to add something ... anything ... I see a GOP advantage in the debates (hinted at by -Paules above).
Debates are like interviews. You get better with practice. Romney's real-live debate experience is much more current than Obama's. It's been nearly four years since the tinpot messiah has faced off against an ideological opponent in such a setting. I believe this will give Romney a noticeable advantage over the T/M.
Cautiously optimistic.
Aug '12
Re: Straws in the Wind
For his entire political life, O, petulant and narcissistic to the core, has been coddled and shielded. If R&R can sustain attacks on him, especially those that point out his poor character and the falseness of his claims of intellectual and moral superiority, he will crack. Like most bullies and spoiled children, he's never had to "take" what he "dishes out" (good grief, the Illinois Republicans ran Alan Keyes against him, and that half-heartedly). He's never had to deal with determined opposition and he can't without turning openly petty and spiteful. Keep him rattled and he'll practically hand the race to R&R.
May '10
Re: Straws in the Wind
I seem to remember Haley Barbour pointing that out in a Ricochet podcast once (not the most recent one, the one before) and he made the same kind of prediction. Again, at the risk of repeating myself too much, it's likely to be like those Downfall videos.
Mar '11
Re: Straws in the Wind
Oh, that Washington Post column is sweet:
Take that, Nobody-Bidenhyourtime 2012.
Aug '11
Re: Straws in the Wind
So the straws in the wind say the MSM is going to let the anointed one twist in the wind?
Jul '12
Re: Straws in the Wind
Obama can win only if America fails itself and that is possible. But if America is still the same or even nearly the same country that it has always been, then he can't possibly win; the list of failures is too long and too obvious. Americans don't reward failure.
Aug '12
Re: Straws in the Wind
Deep down I really can't believe that the majority of voters will look at the last 4 years of O and say, "Yeah, I gotta have more of that".
Edited on August 20, 2012 at 6:01pmApr '12
Re: Straws in the Wind
Well said, Dittoheadadt! Margaret Thatcher has always been one of my heroes, and absolute confidence was her normal demeanor. Look like a winner, work like a winner, act like a winner, talk like a winner, and this gives the best chance that you will win. The dynamic duo of Romney and Ryan is all of those things, and will win as a result.
I agree with Professor Rahe. Even from Canada I can feel the change in feelings that is taking place. Like the good Professor, I also read the signs and see victory in the wind.