Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
As you may have read, there was a humungous explosion at a Revolutionary Guards base outside Tehran over the weekend that is reported to have killed 17 soldiers and wounded 16. One of the dead was Brig. Gen. Hassan Moghaddam, identified by The New York Times as a "top commander in Iran's ballistic missile program." This explosion follows on the heels of three explosions in the Iranian energy sector at the end of October that may or may not be connected.
Michael Ledeen has an interesting piece up at Pajamas in which he analyzes this recent spate of explosions. He dismisses, first of all, the rampant theorizing "sucked from the thumbs of pundits who feel they must write quickly" that this is obviously the work of the Israelis or the Americans. In Ledeen's view, "the operation [this past weekend] was planned and carried out by Iranians from the opposition-that-does-not-exist."
He notes that the whopper explosion was actually several. According to his sources,
- There were two explosions at the RG base at Bidganeh, one smaller, the other very large;
- At almost the same time, there was an explosion at another military base in the west, in Luristan. The explosions seem to have been coordinated;
- The area around Bigdaneh is a military zone, with various facilities including two air fields, thus questions like “was it a munitions depot or a missile base?” are best answered “yes. both.”
According to Ledeen, these most recent explosions indicate that at long last, the Green Movement has turned away from its policy of non-violence and is taking on the mullahs in a language they understand. The mullahs seem to be listening: Ledeen cites an unsubstantiated report that two leaders of the Green Movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, have been plucked from house arrest and spirited away, presumably as hostages to restrain the Greens from taking further violent action:
This bespeaks a high level of anxiety within the regime, suggesting that they feared an all-out assault was under way...Whether or not the rumor is true, its existence suggests that Khamenei et. al. take a more serious view of the opposition than some of our own expert analysts.
Now, even The New York Times has called President Obama's response to the IAEA's recent report detailing evidence of Iran's push to construct a nuclear warhead "strikingly muted." Tantalizing as this potential new development is, the odds of Obama taking the opportunity to push for assistance to the Greens (and thereby erase the memory of his obliviousness to their cause in 2009) remain slim to nil. If there is to be any stepped-up Western support for the Greens, it is more likely to come from France than the US.
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Dec '10
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
In part, I hope France will be the ones to arm and support the green movement. After seeing what is developing in Libya and Egypt, let another western power take responsibility, not only for the triumph over a dictatorship, but for the theocratic mess that replaces it when the power vacuum ensues.
While I have a great hope for the United States serving as a force for good in the world, until we have the stomach for genuinely imperial behavior, interference beyond bombing runs and sabotage seem to be fruitless.
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
Judith, I presume you heard about the Syrian Free Army's attack on the intel facilities? It's another one of those "the pundits who say they know what this means are by definition not the ones who would really know" items, but it's interesting.
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
Yes, we've been hearing about Syrian defector actions against the regime for some time but as you say, it's impossible to know what's truly happening or be able to say with any certainty what it really means. Did you get to the end of that piece, by the way? Nice little tidbit about Bashar's uncle. Also probably meaningless -- it's easy to talk big from your Paris mansion -- but interesting.
Jun '10
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
To whomever did it, "Good for you. Do it some more."
Edited on November 17, 2011 at 4:55pmJun '10
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
Double post.
Edited on November 17, 2011 at 4:54pmMar '11
Re: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
This all appears incredibly speculative Ms. Levy. I notice nothing in the article you cite to support Mr. Ledeen's claim of an incipient Green Movement insurrection other than some vague handwaving towards his "sources". Certainly interesting and beneficial to Western interests if true but I have difficulty crediting this account as it does not seem consistent with any actions that have previously been taken by the Green Movement and is not supported with any evidence.
Edited on November 17, 2011 at 6:32pmRe: Strategic Shift Within Iranian Green Movement?
Roberto, it is speculative. Ledeen acknowledges this in his piece. What's interesting about it -- if indeed he is correct about what's happening -- is the very point you mention, which is that these acts of violence constitute a major change in direction by the Green Movement.